We have the most unique game in the world and one of the real growth areas has been statistical analysis.  In the last 20 years it has become a must for all coaches’ boxes, media and of course Super Coach followers.  Unfortunately, Super Coach has become a very poor indicator of the actual output of a player and fails to take into account the great intricacies of our game.  It’s a game.

One point that must be made very clear is that Australian Rules is the hardest game in the world to ‘capture’.  

There are some strong indicators that seem to stand the test of time.  Clubs will also design their own KPI’s - meaning if we do this well we will win.  But it’s not that simple in our game as the opposition may in fact have very similar analysis.

Last year Fremantle were the ‘minor’ premier and their stats showed they were the best in the competition at defending from clearances and attacking from clearances.  But come the finals and, just as importantly, this year, this advantage was negated and they ‘lost’ the premiership because they were very poor at creating scoring from turnovers and defensive rebound.

Again this year, the deliberate out of bounds rule has forced players to keep the ball in play more denying Fremantle their main source of scoring and defending scoring. Take out Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands and the issue is compounded.

Let’s look at two of the old favourites - inside 50 and contested ball.  If you win the Inside 50 count you are going to win 80% of the time, but not necessarily ALL the time.  Wasteful teams, waste opportunities.  

Contested Ball is another favourite but you win only 73% of the time if you win this stat.  Another dimension has been added to inside 50 and that is ‘time in forward half’.  At the turn of the decade Collingwood won the 2010 premiership with the best percentage of time in forward half.  Who is leading this year?  It’s Geelong.

I think Geelong in recent weeks have really taken their zone/press to another level.  I think they accept they have a very attacking midfield and an experienced but ageing defence.  So the best way to protect that defence and allow the likes of Harry Taylor, Tom Lonergan and others to set up is to buy time inside 50.  Taylor is critical to this system with his intercept marks, but he can be exposed with quick ball movement one on one.   Time in forward half will be the key stat to Geelong’s success this year.

From Essendon’s point of view, it must be very difficult to develop consistent KPI’s due to the swapping of coaches over the last decade.  The Bombers have proved this year pure kicks, marks and handballs mean very little.  Essendon are ranked number two for disposals but are 18th for time inside forward 50 (39%), goals for, and inside 50’s.  So the percentage of efficiency makes ‘the stats’ pretty irrelevant.

Changing of coaches means changes in philosophy and changes in what the coaches see as a KPI.  I take you back to game in 2012.  It was round one and the Bombers were playing North Melbourne. Essendon lost the clearances 26-40, lost the inside 50’s 54-67 and lost contested possession 130-152.  That day Essendon played a controlled possession game, going sideways, backwards and working the ball forward systematically.  Hence they frustrated the life out of North and won the game.

It was an excellent one off win and a great plan to beat a specific opponent on a specific day.  Long term it was not sustainable but unfortunately, in my opinion, it has seeped into the Essendon psyche.  I do not believe this to be John Worsfold’s preferred system of play.  Hopefully the team continues to develop the balanced style of play that was so impressive against GWS.

Paralysis by analysis is still applicable today.  Many assistant coaches and opposition analysts ply their trade based on pages and pages of statistics.  The good, is that it can plot trends in the game or in opposition’s play.  The bad, is that he coaches become stats dependent and lose their powers of understanding, through watching (the game).

Mathematicians plot trends, graphs and statistics.  Football coaches should watch games and know the game.

So it’s all very complex.  Websites are full of stats.  Still, in my opinion, the simplicity of a complex game can still be analysed through some of the most basic of stats.

  1. Points for and against have stood the test of time. Score well /defend well
  2. Where do we score from? Scoring sources would be a pretty important stat. Teams score 60% from turnovers (so if you aren’t a great team at creating pressure you won’t be very good), 25% from stoppages and the rest from possession kicking.
  3. Tackles inside forward 50.  A big one, showing a real level of intent and buys time for organisation of the press/zone.
  4. Time in forward half.  Makes a bit of sense doesn’t it.  The longer it stays in there the more opportunities there are to score.  Geelong is 1st with 55% and our Bombers are last with 39%.
  5. Inside 50.  Win this and you win 80% of the time.
  6. Percentage of scores from forward 50 entries.  Scoring efficiency per entry.
  7. Uncontested marks.  Hawthorn have taken 90+ uncontested marks in their past 3 Grand Finals.  When they lose they have less.
  8. One of my favourites is pressured midfield turnovers.  Quite simply - get the ball back off them.  That’s the big difference between attacking tackles and defensive tackles.

So next time you get on the train leaving Etihad Stadium it will be interesting to hear the conversations.  “We had more possessions, more marks, more inside 50’s, more clearances and more tackles and we still lost!  I can’t work it out.”

How many times do we see that? Ah, the complexity of a simple game.