THE BACKGROUND

Close but no cigar. That was the bottom line of a gallant but ultimately unsuccessful attempt by Essendon to halt Collingwood’s winning run at the MCG last Sunday.

For three quarters the Bombers hung in there and even had a chance to go a couple of goals clear early in the final term. But it the Magpies who found a higher gear with the result on the line, and while the margin was only 16 points at the finish, the consequences were grim.

Essendon is now two games and more than 20 percentage points outside the eight and will need plenty of luck to have any chance of playing finals for a second year in a row. The Bombers have also copped some more hits on the injury front, Patrick Ambrose and Jake Stringer now unavailable.

But these are misfortunes upon which they simply can’t afford to dwell if the eight is to remain even a distant hope, particularly facing the next test only six days after the last.

And while Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium doesn’t present nearly as big a stage or indeed challenge as Collingwood at a packed MCG, it’s nonetheless an assignment Essendon can’t afford to take lightly.

The Suns have had a nightmare season after a promising start, now having lost 10 games in a row and at times in some games barely competitive. That said, their efforts over the last couple of games have been marginally more consistent.

At home, it won’t take a lot of encouragement for Gold Coast to have a sniff of breaking its protracted run of outs.

THE BOMBERS

Last week’s defeat against the Magpies was Essendon’s eighth loss of the season, but arguably the first in which it played close to some of its better football for long periods yet still emerged on the wrong end of the scoreline.

It’s an outcome which theoretically could be more difficult to deal with than a “shocker” because there aren’t necessarily easily identified areas of improvement.

The Bombers must also ensure they are not distracted by the intense focus on the umpiring in the aftermath, coach John Worsfold meeting during the week with umpires’ coach Hayden Kennedy.

As much discussion as there’s been about a lopsided free kick count (17-27 to Collingwood, the Dons now minus 36 over the past three games) the fact remains with the game on the line, the Pies banged on five goals to two in the last term and dominated the vital statistical areas.

Essendon certainly wasn’t helped on the endurance front by the injury to Ambrose, leaving it a man down on rotations, and later on those to Stringer then David Myers.

Perhaps the final quarter might also have provided some evidence that Essendon’s hunt for yet more midfield depth must be on-going. Zach Merrett, Devon Smith and Dyson Heppell had given everything but in difficult conditions didn’t have quite the numerical support of their Collingwood counterparts.

Even in defeat, though, there were plusses. Andrew McGrath’s recent form has been very impressive, and the second-year Bomber was good again against the Pies. Michael Hurley had a big game, and Mitch Brown has provided defensive value and goals as a key forward over the last month.

THE OPPOSITION

This season was always going to be tough for Gold Coast, unable to play on its home ground until round 11 because of the Commonwealth Games.

Their first nine games included road trips to Cairns, back-to-back games in Perth and more travels to Adelaide, Ballarat then Shanghai in China to take on Port Adelaide.

Gold Coast made a bright enough start despite that considerable handicap, winning three of its first five games. But the bottom has fallen out spectacularly since then, the Suns losing the last 10 and also taking some massive hits on the injury front.

An already lengthy casualty list including the likes of Michael Barlow, Sam Day, Aaron Hall, Pearce Hanley, Matt Rosa, Darcy MacPherson and Tom Nicholls now has the Suns’ co-captain and best player Tom Lynch added to it for the rest of the season. With Gary Ablett long gone, that’s three of the top five in Gold Coast’s best and fairest last year now absent.

The Suns’ line-up last week against North Melbourne contained five players with a dozen or less senior games under their belts. But after five games in a row when they went goalless in one quarter, and in the loss to Hawthorn two terms, the Suns have at least sustained their effort for longer in defeats by under 40 points to both Collingwood and North Melbourne.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has made three changes to the line-up, Orazio Fantasia, a costly late withdrawal last week, back in the side, along with Matt Dea and Darcy Parish, for his first senior game since round eight. They replace the injured Ambrose and Stringer, while Jake Long has been omitted.

Gold Coast, which had 14 players named on its official injury list during the week, has precious few more players on which to call, and consequently has named an unchanged team.

THE STATS

Essendon continues to improve its stoppage game, winning the clearance count by an average two per game for a ranking of third, a dramatic rise since the round defeat against Carlton, when it ranked only 14^th in the same category.

The Dons have also over the past four weeks won the ground ball count by 14 per game for a ranking of third.

Another big improvement of late has come in the forward line. Essendon has taken a mark from 20 per cent of its kicks inside 50, ranked equal first. And the Bombers have over the past month scored a goal from 26 per cent of their inside 50s for a ranking of second.

As it has all season, however, the third quarter performance remains a concern. Last week, Essendon at least broke even with Collingwood with a score of 3.1, but the Dons have won just two of their 15 third quarters, and been outscored in them by a total of 192 points, a dismal ranking of 17^th.

In contrast, lack of scoring opportunities and efficiency is a major headache for the Suns, who are not only ranked last for points scored, but also last for scores and goals from inside 50 entries, a situation hardly like to improve in the absence of Lynch.

THE PLAN

Essendon needs to focus on a good start. Having remained thereabouts against North Melbourne last week, the Suns will get their tails up if they can assume an early ascendancy on their home ground.

The Bombers, by seizing the initiative, can take the air out of the Suns’ tyres before the wheels have even begun turning. That will make life a lot more comfortable.

And the best opportunity to gain that edge is around the ball. While Gold Coast ruckman Jarrod Witts has had a fair season, Tom Bellchambers has been a key to Essendon’s revival.

First use of the ball at the centre bounces and stoppages will ensure that the midfield group has the best possible chance of capitalising on some obvious advantages, the Dons ranked third on the clearance differentials to the Suns’ 17^th, the Queensland team also ranked second last for contested ball.

With an inexperienced and unsettled forward set-up, Essendon has an opportunity to become more aggressive on the defensive rebound, which combined with better functioning forward set-ups, should offer plenty of scoring potential against a defence which has conceded more points than any team except Carlton.

THE RESULT

Finals may seem unlikely, but they’re not impossible if the cards fall right for the Bombers, which makes a game like this against a side at low ebb not only a must-win, but one which must be won by plenty if the Dons are to start improving a percentage still well below 100.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.