THE BACKGROUND

It’s not often a game between second and 12^th on the AFL ladder would be a clear pick as match of the round. But that’s the status Sunday’s Essendon-Collingwood clash now has, and rightfully so.

Collingwood has been a consistent force throughout this season, the Magpies having won 10 of their past 12 games and the last six straight. Essendon can’t claim that steadiness, the Bombers having dropped as low as 15^th on the ladder with a miserable 2-6 record after eight games.

But the Essendon the Pies face on Sunday at the MCG is a different beast altogether from that which succumbed by 49 points back on Anzac Day.

After six wins from their past seven games, the Bombers continue to gather momentum. It is a run which has seen them knock over four opponents who either were or are now in the top eight, and last Sunday might have seen the best performance of the lot, a 17-point defeat of North Melbourne in which the Dons produced their highest score of the season.

Confidence is high in both camps, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t potential concerns for either the Bombers or Pies, however.

For Collingwood, the already-considerable casualty list is growing even longer, with key defender Lynden Dunn now ruled out for the season with a knee injury, following the loss of important midfield pair Adam Treloar and Daniel Wells.

For Essendon, the venue for this clash might also give pause for thought. Whilst it’s a home game, the MCG hasn’t been a happy hunting ground of late, the Dons losing four of their five appearances at the home of football in 2018, the Pies in contrast having won five of seven at the ground since the first two rounds of the season.

THE BOMBERS

Pressure on the opposition has been a key to the Essendon revival, and it was to the fore again in the win over North Melbourne last week.

The Bombers beat the Roos handsomely in both the clearance and tackle counts and they are the two areas in which most of the improvement has come.

After the calamitous round eight loss to Carlton, the Dons were ranked 14^th for stoppages on the differentials and ninth for tackles. Those rankings are now third and fourth respectively.

After finding some form forward, Jake Stringer is also having more of an impact around the clearances, as are another pair of strong-bodied midfielders, David Myers and Kyle Langford, the latter of whom continues to rise in stature with some cool-headed and very solid football.

Devon Smith just goes on having an outstanding first season in red-and-black and unlike earlier in the season now has plenty of support, team leaders Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett’s spells of top form in no way coincidental with their team’s improvement.

The increased pressure has forced opposition turnovers in more dangerous positions and allowed a more efficient transition of the ball from defence to attack, running defenders Adam Saad, in terrific touch, and Conor McKenna instrumental to that better use.

In attack, Shaun McKernan looks dangerous, and Orazio Fantasia, after taking some time to settle into the line-up upon his return from injury, underlined his importance to the equation with a superb game against the Roos, Essendon’s scoring firepower looking that much better as a result.

THE OPPOSITION

It’s taken a while, but the vision coach Nathan Buckley has had for his version of Collingwood is now being realised.

The Magpies have always been a high possession team under Buckley with an impressive midfield group, but have improved markedly at either end of the ground, conceding two fewer goals per game and having climbed from 11^th on the points scored ranking to third.

Few might have expected the Pies to kick big enough scores without the services of either Jamie Elliott or Alex Fasolo, both out injured all year, but a new-look forward set-up has ticked over beautifully.

Highly-rated draftee Jaidyn Stephenson is in Rising Star-winning form, while the dangerous Will Hoskin-Elliott leads the Pies’ goalkicking with an average of more than two per game. Big forward/ruckman Mason Cox has also found good form, and has already proved a handful for the Bomber backline on Anzac Day.

Collingwood will, however, have some re-organising to do with the loss of Dunn from defence, the Pies’ backline now an even greener group in terms of experience aside from Jeremy Howe.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has included Jake Long, Ben McNiece, Aaron Francis and Jackson Merrett in the extended squad, with the final teams to be confirmed at 5pm on Friday.

While the Bombers have made no omissions yet, Collingwood is set to make at least one forced change with Dunn out of the side.

THE STATS

No team gets its hands on the football as much as Collingwood, the Pies ranked a comfortable No.1 in the AFL for disposals, though that may come back to the field a little as the loss of Treloar to the midfield mix takes hold.

The Magpies also rank high for both contested and uncontested possession. The most critical battlefield on Sunday, however, may be at the stoppages given Collingwood’s No.1 ranking in that area and Essendon’s ranking of third.

These are two teams who like to play on and use pace, which will test the defensive work rates of either. Collingwood is also efficient in attack. The Pies rank third for inside 50 entries but also third for goals from those entries, going at 25 per cent, compared to Essendon’s 23.2 per cent, a ranking of ninth.

The Bombers will also need to be on guard come the resumption after half-time. The third quarter continues to be a problem, another “loss” last week meaning they have still won only one of 13 third terms for the season.

The Pies, in contrast, have averaged 25.6 points each third quarter in 2018, ranked third in the competition.

THE PLAN

Collingwood has lost only four games this season. In three of those defeats they have lost the clearance count and in three they have lost contested possession. A good sign that to defeat the 2018 Pies, who use the ball better and convert well, winning the midfield battle is essential.

That’s no easy task, even with Treloar missing, given the presence of Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Jordan De Goey, Tom Phillips and Josh Thomas.

But Essendon now has not only the numbers, but a midfield well-balanced enough to do the job, led by Heppell, Merrett and Smith, but with Stringer, Langford, Myers and Brendon Goddard all playing key roles.

First use being critical, the ruck duel between Tom Bellchambers and the Pies’ Brodie Grundy is a key. Both have been in terrific form, with Grundy arguably the choice for All-Australian ruckman were the team to be chose right now.

With Dunn gone for the Pies, the Bombers are now even more capable of exploiting a height and strength edge in attack, too, McKernan, Stringer and Mitch Brown potentially causing their share of mis-matches.

Collingwood is good on transition, and ranked No.1 for scores from kick-ins, so there is also plenty of onus on small forwards Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti to lock the ball inside the 50

THE RESULT

Since the start of 2013, the ledger between Essendon and Collingwood is 5-5, three times the Anzac Day result reversed in the subsequent meeting. That might be a good omen for the Dons, but not as meaningful as the brand of football the team is currently playing, good enough to trouble any side, even one placed second on the ladder. It’s another big challenge, but also a great opportunity.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.