The stage is set

5. Port Adelaide: 6 wins, 4 losses, 24 points, 148.6%

12. Essendon: 5 wins, 6 losses, 20 points, 96.4%

Selection considerations

The Bombers have had a look at three tall forwards for a few weeks now and are sticking with that strategy. With Essendon facing the dominant Patrick Ryder they would have also discussed using Tom Bellchambers and Matthew Leuenberger in tandem, particularly out of the elements and under the roof. That appears top-heavy I hear you say … well, West Coast only had 39 entries and beat Port through forward line efficiency. This has been a strong part of Essendon’s game this year and being able to use Joe Daniher as a permanent forward with no ruck responsibilities will cause a lot of damage. The longer Daniher can play permanent forward the greater Essendon’s winning chances improve. He and Hooker as permanent forwards will worry Port. James Stewart is a clever and skilful player and the Dons will be looking for him to get stuck in.

Looking ahead, Kyle Langford is in good form in the VFL and deserves a chance in the coming weeks. He could add a different dimension as he gives the team an extra option to run through the midfield.

James Kelly is back to boost the Dons defence.

Injury

Mid-week Port had the crucial Chad Wingard listed as 1-2 weeks with a calf. He flew through training and now the Power have a full list to choose from. Patrick Ambrose’s ongoing issues are a concern. Unfortunately, young Parish did not make it back. He is important and the Dons would love to have him back. James Kelly forces Brett Stanton out. Patrick Ambrose has had an unfortunate setback. 

Statistical analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 7^th PORT 11^th

Average Clearances: ESS 18^TH PORT 2^ND

Average Inside 50: ESS 16^th PORT 1^st

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 10^th GWS 15^th

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 13^th PORT 3^rd

Uncontested Possessions: ESS 7^th PORT 13^Th

Average Tackles: ESS 15^th   PORT 12^th

Average Hit Outs: ESS 11^th PORT 9th

Average Scores: ESS 13.6 PORT 15.6 

Essendon

Essendon’s current situation genuinely reflects the closeness of the competitions and the minimal margin for error. You have to remember that the Dons are a game and some percentage off fifth spot and approaching the second half of the year there are some ‘fixables’ that can project the Dons into the top eight.

On the hands of the ‘season clock’, I have Essendon at 11.00am. Par would be 12.00pm and they need to be at 1.00pm. To me that amounts to only a 10% swing in the affirmative. Essendon has issues but it is such a every fine line in that battle for clubs between 5^th-12^th that if they can adjust these figures by a 10 per cent swing to the positive, they will play finals. Sounds like an election campaign. Laurie Oakes should be doing this analysis from Canberra. Unfortunately the Dons will not get any preferences and will have to do it all by themselves.

- Essendon average nearly 14 goals per game so if they were to increase Inside 50’s (currently averaging 47) they can put even more scoring pressure on. You also have to take into account how good their efficiency once inside 50 is (currently in the top three).

- The Dons need more repeat stoppages in the forward half. This has a double purpose. It allows you another chance at scoring and it allows the mids/defence the time to set up behind the ball.  Essendon rank 17^th for time the ball spends in their own forward half.

- The Dons will be hoping for more centre clearances. They give up too many and this puts immediate pressure on the defence. This is more a technical/set up issue rather than personnel. The midfield group would be analysing this daily.

- Essendon’s back six have been brilliant. To give you an indication the side has turned the ball over 344 times behind centre, yet the defenders continue to stand up. It just gives the opposition another crack at a forward entry. Having fought so hard the ball use out of defence if the exits can improve it will open up more forward entries through precise decision-making and execution.

- Before last week’s game if you said Bellchambers would beat Mumford and Patton and Cameron would kicked one goal between them I’d suggest you win the four points. What a great effort. Then up bobs the GWS midfield kicking 13/18 goals.

The Dons are doing a lot right. Just some subtle adjustments in these areas will make all the difference. Behind the scenes, at training and in meetings they would be working very hard at improving these indicators. All the players would be well aware and very much in on all discussions. Some can be fixed in the short term others will probably take another pre-season of work. Remember the team they are playing (Port) had very similar figures last year. The Dons bookends are going very well. Defending superbly and the forwards are very efficient inside 50. When John Worsfold talks about ‘continual improvement’ he is, I am guessing, referring to these areas. When the coach says that ‘we are a game behind where we should be’ he is also right. (Well maybe a couple more wins would be nice!).

Is this a case of so close yet so far? Down to GWS by a couple of goals. Richmond by the same margin. Prior to that comprehensive wins over Geelong and West Coast. Assessing Essendon is difficult. Have they taken their chances? The last month’s form has been good. If they attitude continues to be, ‘don’t accept what’s going on’ then they can push on, but it is quite apparent that the next two games against Port and the Swans may decide the finals fate. The next month after that sees Brisbane, the Pies, Saints and North. Therefore, apart from Brisbane, all teams in and around the same mark and all with the same intentions. It is all in the clubs hands.

Essendon don’t want to get to the end of the year and say ‘if only’ or ‘if we did this’. They are the claims of mediocrity and we just can’t accept that as part of our comeback. It is tight and it is tough and as Alan Jeans said in one of his greatest speeches; ‘you either step up or you step down’. Look if you have a few minutes. It is ‘old school’ but certainly relevant to Essendon’s situation and mindset. One of my favourites.

Port Adelaide

This is Port Adelaide’s only game at Etihad Stadium for 2017. Last year they defeated North but lost to Carlton. From 45 trips they have won 17 games @ 37 per cent. Port are 5^th with a game and a large percentage in hand over Essendon. The Power has lost to top three sides in GWS, Crows and Geelong by two points. They thrashed Gold Coast, and lost to West Coast at home by ten points. The Eagles game was extraordinary given that Port had 68 entries on their home ground to West Coast’s 39.

Percentage is always a great indicator I believe. Port Adelaide’s is an excellent 148.6, while the Dons have 96%. Interestingly the only difference in this area is that Port have only 720 points kicked against them while the Dons have conceded 1050. The Power leaked defensively across the ground in 2016 and were easily scored against. They have fixed this by improving their mindset (to defend) and their organisation. We are all aware that Essendon are showing similar team traits despite the excellent efforts of the ‘back 6’. Maybe the Dons are looking for this 10 per cent improvement in the second half of the year. Port had a year to get it right. Obviously structural organisation such as that takes more than 11 games, so last year’s experience has definitely hurt John Worsfold and his team in an area like this.

The Power continue to be a strong defensive team, conceding on average just 72 points a game. They have won 29 quarters this season (the equal best in the AFL) and are scoring 108 points on average. This is the perfect balance for a finals candidate. Looks a good balance to me and will cause Essendon concern. Wines and Powell-Pepper are strong. Ebert adds the discipline and the capacity to do a run with role (Merrett). Polec, Boak, Wingard and Robbie Gray add class. Then there is the enormous ability and athleticism of Ryder. Again, Essendon will be faced with enormous rebound capacity from the Power’s half back line in Pittard, Hartlett and Broadbent. Therefore, this is the all-round combination that produces their running power.

Tom Bellchambers was excellent for the Bombers last week and faces another tough battle against the Power.

Summary 

There is a major discrepancy in Clearances. With Port ranked 2^nd and Essendon ranked 18^th. Together with average Inside 50s (Port 1st Ess 16^th), it would appear that the territory battle will favour Port.

Essendon are more than capable of causing the Port defence considerable issues. Daniher and Hooker’s height and marking power at Etihad will be a great strength, while Port have only one ‘small defender’ in Byrne-Jones. They have tall flankers who are very attacking and they will find the Essendon small forwards a most difficult match up. However if Port dominate key stats its will be a very long Saturday night.

For Essendon to win, they ‘only’ have to break even in:

1. Bellchambers v Ryder is pivotal.

2. Contested and ground balls.

Then….

1. Limit Port’s forward entries by increasing their own = No repeat entries for Port.

2. ’Let’s take care of that footy’. 

Then …

1. Maintain the inside 50 scoring efficiency (2^nd in AFL)

Tough at footy. Enormous pressure on them. Play with great passion for the contest. Get into ‘em.

As Laurie Oakes would say; ‘all it takes is a 10 per cent swing and they (we) are in government’.

Robert Shaw was an Assistant Coach for the Bombers during the Club's 2000 premiership winning season. He provides independent analysis of the team's progress and the opposition's tactics for essendonfc.com.au