Last year, Essendon began a new AFL season full of hope after the recruitment of a clutch of talented players from other clubs, and coming off the back of a finals appearance the previous season.
It didn’t go according to plan - a miserable start of 2-6 leaving the Bombers chasing tail for the rest of 2018.
What’s changed as the Dons prepare to launch their 2019 assault? In some ways, not much. There’s another big name come aboard in former Giant Dylan Shiel, and again, plenty of expectation.
Perhaps the difference this time is a better appreciation that big names and previous form don’t necessarily count for much on their own, and that to realise those expectations, there will need to be not only a lot of hard work, but an intense focus on the tasks at hand.
And the first of those for 2019 is a considerable challenge. An away game, a road trip, and against Greater Western Sydney, a finalist now for the past three seasons and widely expected to continue that run this season.
Here are the five big questions about the opening clash of the 2019 season.
1. Who’s made it to the starting line for round one, and who won’t be there?
It’s a big occasion for Dylan Shiel, the All-Australian midfielder not only making his debut for the red and black, but doing so against his old team.
The Bombers have some pretty big (literally) outs in key defender Cale Hooker and spearhead Joe Daniher - both set to miss at least the first month with calf injuries.
Long-term casualties Marty Gleeson and Mason Redman, meanwhile, won’t be seeing senior action for a while, but at least take their first steps on the comeback trail this week when they play a VFL practice match against Coburg on Saturday.
Another interesting inclusion for the Bombers is Jordan Ridley, who played just the three senior games last year in the middle of the season, but who was one of the biggest plusses from the Dons’ two JLT hit-outs, and has as a result won himself a spot on a half-back flank.
All eyes will be on star recruit Dylan Shiel in his Essendon debut on Sunday. (Photo: AFL Media)
2. What can we expect from our first-up opposition?
Greater Western Sydney has contested the past three finals series. But injuries have played havoc with their last two years, and they’re part of the backdrop to the Giants’ preparation for this season opener as well.
Star midfielder Josh Kelly has been ruled out, skipper Callan Ward is out for the first month with a knee injury, un-retired ruckman Shane Mumford is serving a suspension, clever forward Zac Langdon has a foot problem, and defenders Nick Haynes and Aidan Corr will also miss.
Remember, also, that the Giants had already lost a sizeable slab of talent during the trade period - not just Shiel having departed, but Tom Scully, Rory Lobb and the retired Ryan Griffen.
With Jonathon Patton not due to return mid-season, GWS is relying heavily in terms of key-forward marking targets upon Jeremy Cameron and Harry Himmelberg. While the Giants are still strong defensively, and a good contested-ball team, ranked third last year on the differentials, they have lost some of their offensive potency - their ‘points for’ ranking having slipped from second in 2016 to sixth in 2017 and only 10th last year.
The Giants will be without prime mover Josh Kelly on Sunday. (Photo: AFL Media)
3. Where will this game be won and lost?
Both teams are missing some genuine quality at either end of the ground. That might make both converting scoring opportunities and defending those created by the opponent more difficult. That, arguably, makes winning the midfield battle even more important than usual, and it’s this area of the ground both sides are at their strongest.
Essendon’s midfield now bats deeper than it has for a long time and in terms of quality might well be the strongest the club has boasted for at least 15 years.
Devon Smith, Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, Andrew McGrath, David Zaharakis, David Myers, Kyle Langford and Darcy Parish offer coach John Worsfold plenty of flexibility and perhaps a few more rotations than GWS has at its disposal.
The pace advantage also appears to be with the Dons around the outside, which is where the difference was felt once Essendon controlled the clinches in their last meeting (at the same venue).
Andrew McGrath's pace will be an asset as he spends more time in midfield this season. (Photo: AFL Media)
4. How does Essendon handle the absence of Cale Hooker and Joe Daniher?
It’s not ideal. But in a defensive sense, the Giants might be able to exploit Hooker’s less damagingly than other sides.
The GWS forward set-up relies more heavily these days on medium-sized and smaller goalkickers. Their key marking targets, Cameron and Himmelberg, are far from Goliaths, which means Michael Hurley, Patrick Ambrose, Aaron Francis and potentially Mitch Brown should be able to cope with the talls.
At the other end, Daniher’s absence, given he hasn’t appeared at senior level since round seven last season, simply means business as usual with the same forward structure with which the Dons were able to win 10 of their last 14 games. That utilises Shaun McKernan and Jake Stringer as well as Brown if he isn’t required in defence, while at ground level there’s the likes of Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Mark Baguley.
What the Dons have lost in marking strength up forward in Joe’s absence, they might have gained a little in terms of mobility.
5. How big a disadvantage is the venue?
Of course you’d rather be playing on your home deck and at the very least in your own state, but these days Essendon is rightly a lot more confident about getting on a plane.
A horrendous travel record was turned around dramatically last season, Essendon going 5-1 on the road, its best result yet in the age of the national competition. Nor has Sydney Showground Stadium proved a venue to be feared for the Bombers historically. Five of the last six meetings between these two clubs have been at this same ground, and indeed, six of all eight contests between the Dons and Giants.
Essendon’s record in those clashes is 4-2, and it’s a venue which should feel familiar - the length of the stadium exactly the same to the metre as one of the Bombers’ homes in the MCG, and exactly the same width as the other at Marvel Stadium.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.