One of the most interesting parts of this game is that the Essendon coaches will prepare their team against another ‘Hawthorn Coach’.

Following on from the great Alastair Clarkson the Dons ran into his right hand man, Chris Fagan and on Sunday, Brendon Bolton.

The Dons will know the game plan backwards, particularly the Hawthorn methodology and philosophy. While the new coaches will want to put their individual stamp on the game there is nothing surer than Bolton following Fagan and Clarkson in rolling out a fair bit of Hawthorn.

It is a dangerous thing to do particularly if you have not got the artillery or played a lot of football together. Certainly, Carlton are in a learning and development phase.

SELECTION

Essendon has named Matthew Leuenberger in the ruck, so it appears that Shaun McKernan (unlucky after a heroic performance against Hawthorn) will miss out.  Essendon want Leuenberger's superior ruckwork to help alleviate clearance issues. He'll have his work cut out with Kreuzer’s running.

Hocking for Ben Howlett will be the only other change but Essendon will have discussed Matt Dea (a possible match-up for Matthew Wright) over Martin Gleeson.

Heath Hocking is back in the Bombers side this week.

I have witnessed over a dozen training sessions over the past few months and I had concerns on the comeback of Hocking.  At training yesterday morning he was the sharpest and best he had looked so it is a good selection.  Mitch Brown gets the nod over Michael Hartley, so it is quite obvious the players are fighting for spots in the team.

Levi Casboult holds his place ahead of young Harry McKay and Ed Curnow who may come in if Sam Rowe is not cleared of concussion. This would mean Jacob Weitering returns to the key defence role.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

It's very early days yet but it is clear Carlton are a kicking team that want to distribute the ball by foot, particularly off half back.  They are the lowest handball team in the competition at this early stage. Despite having Patrick Cripps, they are 18^th in stoppages and while Essendon are not setting the world on fire the Blues are in the top five for centre clearances.

Essendon have a lot of work to do here as they sit 16^th, despite the likes of Jobe Watson, Brendon Goddard, Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell being around the action.  Although this is an early trend, the Dons would want to turn this around.  

Carlton are 15^th in goals scored and 12^th inside 50’s. The defensive systems have stood up really well, creating opportunity for Essendon to rebound decisively.  It's so important Essendon are on their game with their ability to create Carlton ball movement turnovers.

As I said, too early yet.

CARLTON

- The Blues are yet to pass the 100-point mark in their two games.  They kicked 9.10 against Melbourne in a dour defensive struggle and 14.5 against the Tigers. Essendon have kicked 111 and 116 against the Hawks.

- Carlton will not take Essendon on in a free flowing game. Expect the Blues to make every attempt to stifle Essendon’s ball movement and make it a dour low scoring slog as they did against Melbourne. Throughout the game, you will see Carlton zone right back with all 18 players in Essendon’s forward half.

- Carlton led Melbourne by eight points at one stage and completely shut down Melbourne’s ball movement.  Overall the Blues did an excellent job of slowing Melbourne's ball movement down by flooding their defensive 50 with numbers and frustrating the Demon playmakers.

- Mathew Kreuzer is injury free and running well. His follow up when the ball hits the ground is excellent and he will push forward. His marking confidence appears to have returned. His combination with Cripps, Murphy and Gibbs must be respected.

- Carlton are one of the few teams that still use a nominated tagger.  Curnow went to Jordan Lewis last week due to the respect Bolton would have for Lewis so it would be interesting to see if they focus their attention on Zach Merrett. Given his form and his left foot, Carlton may have little alternative.

- Be very aware, Essendon, of Matthew Wright’s excellent form. He has six goals, 35 possessions and 11 marks in a great start to the year.  He needs considerable discussion at Essendon’s planning meeting. I would give the job to McGrath without hesitation.

- Two key players are central to Carlton’s rebound game.  Simpson had 33 against the Tigers but a quiet game against Melbourne where he always had an accountable opponent.  Docherty, off half back, has had 24 and 29 and is the catalyst of the Blues ball movement out off halfback.  They are pivotal to Carlton's rebound similar to the importance of Shaun Burgoyne and Grant Birchall at Hawthorn.  Hence the coaching philosophies.

- While Carlton have a potential all-time great Centre Half Back in Weitering they are focused on turning him into a forward. That is their problem as the Blues are building a very solid defence for the future and his combination with the impressive Marchbank and Plowman could set the Blues up for decades.  Rowe has delayed concussion and won't play.

- Carlton must decide if they play the ‘clearance king’ Cripps with a fracture in his jaw.  He has just turned 22.  Easy decision if you ask me! 

ESSENDON

- At training on Thursday the 2016 Captain Goddard was very vocal. He was strong on standards and starting the game well.  Maybe that is just BJ, or did he detect some slackness in missing targets.  Regardless, he was emphatic and that is a good sign.

Shaw says Goddard has been driving elite standards at training.

- The Dons are still a work in progress and this is understandable. They would be concerned with their clearance work and sides are scoring against them from clearances.  They compensate for this with a very good structure behind the football, allowing them to rebound quickly, with pace and counterattack.

- Nothing too fancy from Essendon.  Stick to what has worked and what is evolving.  Maintain the pace and run in the team, and sort out those clearances. It is not rocket science. Consistency, stick to what you know and do it well.

- 3-0 is so important in such a tight competition but only maintenance of ‘BJ’s standards’ and a lot of hard work will see that come to fruition.

- While the forward pocket seems to have a curse on with Green and Howlett doing hamstrings. Essendon’s use of Colyer, McDonald-Tipungwuti and Fantasia through the midfield is a strong weapon. Midfield? When both Hawthorn and Brisbane came at Essendon, the match winning ‘moves’ were to move their pace further up the ground and to run the ball through central corridor.  When Carlton look to clog the game up you do not have your pace sitting in forward pockets.  Essendon coaches have read this really well.  Richmond’s smalls in Castagna, Rioli and Butler (all very inexperienced) kicked six between them against Carlton.  Essendon’s small crumbers are better and quicker.

- Essendon may change their structure slightly and put Hocking on Gibbs or Murphy.  Especially as Cripps could be a late out with the jaw fracture. (Surely, the Blues will put the kid’s welfare first).  This would allow greater flexibility in Essendon’s midfield with Goddard, Watson, Heppell and Merrett all getting a chance to rotate forward.  I’d like to see that!!

TIP

The Blues have been brave and defensively organised.  This is no walk in the park.  As Carlton did with Melbourne, they will try to use an 18-man zone once they lose possession.  Providing Essendon can work their way through this, not become frustrated and then attack with great speed and precise ball movement the Dons will kick 100+ again and win by 24 points.