The good news is that one of these teams can move to 4-3 after Sunday's game and firmly position themselves in the hunt for a finals berth. So moving on quickly from last week will be critical.

Fremantle has been pretty settled while the Dons have had to balance the mid-week game, a short break, injuries and rotation of tired players.

To the best of their ability the Bombers would looking to quickly revert to their recognised line up.

Fremantle swung the axe a few weeks ago and their form has risen since then. The influx of young players has given them more pace and more enthusiasm. There is no Suban, Dawson, Pearce and the vital Stephen Hill and Hayden Ballantyne are injured.

Essendon has had to reconstruct their side and while there is injury, short turnarounds and inconsistent form, the Dons are more than capable, providing they get back to a settled line up.

Injury

Key players in Hill and Ballantyne are out for the Dockers, but overall they are in good shape.

Essendon has lost defenders Mitch Brown and Patrick Ambrose from a defence that has seen significant personnel changes in the last week or so. I would be settling down this area of the ground. Although they are conceding high Inside 50s, the original backline was defending very well and looked like gelling into a good unit.

All successful teams have recognisable, settled defences. This has been the hallmark of every successful team. The 2000 side played Johnson, Fletcher, Wellman, Solomon, Wallis and Hardwick together for the whole year. There was also McKenna, Jakovich, Worsfold at West Coast. While this generation is not in the class of those great Eagles and Bombers backlines, stability and familiarity (with each other) is the major premiership ingredient.

Selection

Fremantle has brought the tall forward option into the team. This allows Johnson to play as the centre half back interceptor, at which he is excellent - (I expand on this philosophy a little later). The Dockers also settled down their backline further with the addition of Sutcliffe.

Essendon’s 8 ‘in’ are clearly a result of tired bodies, injuries, omissions and form. Well done to Kobe Mutch. I hope he plays. Leuenberger for Bellchambers was the right call for this ground, while the others were certainties in my opinion. It freshens up the team, adds structure if Francis and Stewart play and the experience of Stanton and Kelly is invaluable. Myers has been excellent in the VFL.

David Myers is back in the side after some excellent form in the VFL.

Statistical analysis

Inside 50: Fremantle 15^th Essendon 17^th

Essendon’s general efficiency is very good.

Clearances: Fremantle 3^rd Essendon 12^th

Centre Clearances: Fremantle 5^th Essendon 11

Goals: Fremantle 16^th Essendon 11^th

Tackles: Fremantle 17^th Essendon 16^th

Disposals: Fremantle 12^th Essendon 8^th

Contested Possession: Fremantle 16^th Essendon 9^th

Disposal efficiency: Fremantle 14^th Essendon 7^th

Marks inside 50: Fremantle 16^th Essendon 11^th

Inside 50s conceded: Fremantle (43, 69, 47, 51, 44, 52) Essendon (60, 55, 60, 63, 66, 55 – 2^nd most in the League)

Apart from the blowout against Port Adelaide, Fremantle hasn't lost Ross Lyon's trait of not conceding too many inside 50s.  The Dons on the other hand, concede too many.

Based on the stats, this will be a tight game with each team possessing strengths that will hurt the other, as well as weaknesses that can be exposed. 

Match discussion

- John Worsfold’s understanding of the long Subiaco Oval will be important to how Essendon structure up.

- Linked into the above point, the dominance of West Coast intercept marker Jeremy McGovern at Domain Stadium should be noted.

I would move Hooker back to play this important role against the Dockers.

Fremantle has bought in Taberner to play back-up ruck so that Michael Johnson can control this 'interceptor' area in the Dockers back line.  Subiaco is 16m longer than the MCG so kicks can fall 20m out which brings the ‘interceptor’ into play.  It is also 19m narrower than MCG so a large percentage of kicks are directed into this ‘funnel’ area.

It is a significant reason the Eagles form is poor at wider grounds interstate. Therefore, that is my theory. I cannot stress enough the need to have great intercept marking in this area of the ground.

Cale Hooker has booted 11 goals this season, but Robert Shaw says he could offer value in defence this week.

- The forward line would be Joe Daniher and youngsters, Stewart and Francis. So in an effort to offer a varied opinion, it’s Hooker back for the reasons mentioned and give the young forwards in Daniher, Stewart and Francis a go at it.

(Editor’s note: Robert Shaw always pens his analysis and preview before relying on selection announcement).  

- The Dons will have to overcome a poor recent record in Perth after losing five on the trot to both WA teams, with four defeats by 50 points or more. Mind you, that was amidst some average times and Freo and the Eagles were in top eight positions.

- The Dockers' centre clearance work is a key to their game and recent improvement. Freo is ranked equal fifth averaging 14.7 per game, compared to the Bombers who are equal 11th with an average of 13.

The Don’s battle against Fyfe, Mundy, Neale and a couple of youngsters in Blakely (who will run with Zach Merrett), Crozier and Weller will be the key. Are the Dons mids looking tired?

Ross Lyon has intimated that Michael Walters may also be moved into the middle of the ground to add to this strength.

- No team kicks the ball more than Essendon. The side is ranked first for kicks per game with 235, compared to Fremantle (15^th and averaging 200).

This is a good stat for Essendon, particularly for this ground. Subiaco is a ‘kicking ground’ because of the increased length. Do not overplay the handball on this ground. West Coast built part of their game plan around Hurn’s kicking. Essendon’s penetration with kicking has to be spot on. Long, direct and quick.

- Neither side lays many tackles. The Dockers are 17th averaging 56.3 while the Bombers are 16th with 62.2 per game.

- The Hill boys will not be a double threat this week with Stephen missing. It’s interesting no one talks about Bradley’s loss for Hawthorn. He has added impressive outside run to the Dockers and complements their inside work very well.

- Michael Walters has not kicked a goal for two games so be prepared. If he is over a niggling ankle injury, he will set himself for this.

- Essendon will not carry two rucks. Both can mark when going forward, but what happens when the ball is on the ground? Forward pressure will be the key, so do not go slow.

Sandilands is carrying the load with a little help from Michael Johnson. Taberner comes in to add height and the second ruck. That is why I think the Dons need Francis and Stewart to provide structure while Daniher gives Luenberger a five-minute spell.

A strong lead up centre half forward is important. Daniher played a blinder of a game there a year or so ago. I would play him up the ground, so he can mark then turn onto his left foot to deliver the ball long and strong deep inside 50m. I’m suggesting Daniher at Subiaco is better at centre half forward than deep at full forward.

Joe Daniher could be a threat higher up the ground according to Robert Shaw.

Tip

Fremantle for me by a narrow margin. Eight changes by the Dons is exactly that, while the Dockers are settled. Fresh legs will not hurt the Dons at all, as Watson and young McGrath need the break.

The Dockers are playing at home and have a more settled combination than the Dons. Essendon looked tired after ANZAC Day (Melbourne game) and I am not sure the long trip to Subiaco is the best follow up game.

Essendon has been forced to make personnel changes on a weekly basis. They have made those changes and Myers deserves his chance.

The big four in Sandilands, Fyfe, Mundy and Neale are in good form despite loss to the Eagles. Given these thoughts, I am delighted that Stephen Hill is not playing.

Essendon’s capacity to be efficient going forward will be another key. On paper, Essendon has the more dangerous forward line, as McCarthy and Kersten are still a work in progress. Hill and Ballantyne as ‘outs’ are good for the Dons. This should be a low scoring, tight affair.

NOTE: My thoughts are with the Stubbs family on the passing of our past Chairman, Colin. A great person and my Chairman for several years. He led our club exceptionally well.

Vale Stubbsy.