Every player and coach will be more than aware that there are only two scenarios. 

Essendon take a two game break on Sydney or the Swans draw level and are officially back in the big dance. (No, I’m not backing the draw) so both clubs will focus 100 per cent on the following theme:

“Never worry about the end result … just about what you have to do to get them.”

With 11 rounds to go, it is shaping up as an extraordinary run to the finals. Each round from now on has significance and consequences and Friday night’s game is no exception. At the present stage, I am prepared to say that only North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Brisbane are out of it, while there is only two games separating 15^th and 4^th. Adelaide will surely make Hawthorn’s task impossible on Thursday night paving the way for a Friday night classic between the Dons and Sydney. This has been the scene of epic encounters over the years and I can’t see this being any different.

The Swans have gone from 0-6 to winning five out of their last six while Essendon have won three from five including empathic performances against West Coast, Port Adelaide and Geelong with narrow losses to GWS and the Tigers.

The form line suggests this is the game of the round.

The history

Sydney has dominated Essendon recently, winning the past six games and seven of the past eight; the Bombers' most recent win was in round 20, 2011 by one point.

Also not in the Dons favour is their recent history at the SCG. They have lost their past four and have not won there since 2009. Their recent interstate record is also poor, losing 14 of their past 15 games.

Sydney star Lance Franklin loves playing against Essendon more than any other team, kicking 64 goals in 13 games at an average of 4.92 per game. He has kicked five or more eight times and eight or more three times.

It’s ugly but it’s irrelevant. Make your own history. The Swans have lost to Hawthorn, Collingwood, GWS and Port Adelaide on their home track in 2017.

Statistical analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 6TH SYD 13TH

Average Clearances: ESS 17^TH SYD 10TH

Average Inside 50s: ESS 14^TH SYD 8TH

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 8^TH SYD 16TH

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 14^TH SYD 6^TH

Uncontested Possessions: ESS 7^th SYD 15th

Average Tackles: ESS 14^th SYD 13th

Average Scores: ESS 6^TH 14.1 SYD 8^TH 13.1

Rebound 50s: ESS 1^st SYD 11^th

Simple thumbnail sketch:

Sydney will try to get Essendon in close in the contested area through clearances, winning the ball and getting it inside 50.

Essendon will try to get Sydney in the running game, with rebound and scoring efficiency.

On face value an intriguing contrast in styles.

The Bye

Has to be discussed. Essendon is in form, well rested and refreshed. The Swans are building, match hardened and in form.

Of course, one can suggest it is a factor so it remains to be seen how this plays out. My personal point of view is I have always favoured continuity and match hardened over the mental and physical rest. However, you can’t go down to Puckle St and buy a crystal ball.

The SCG

The ground is eight metres shorter in length than Etihad but 11.5 metres wider. Both teams are a lot closer to their key targets on the shorter ground. Will Essendon’s dynamic backs run into more congestion? Or can they use the wider space to spread the Swans slow players? (Note: Sydney were blown out of the water early by Richmond’s pace before playing traditional ‘bloods football’ kicked in).

The Swans will really press up hard and try to minimise the running space of Conor McKenna, Andrew McGrath and others. They certainly know how to defend against running teams on their ground. Essendon’s quick transition game will still be exceptionally dangerous given the role of Joe Daniher inside 50m.

Conor McKenna collected 22 possessions against Port Adelaide.

Supply and demand

Both forward lines will demand the ball be delivered quickly to Franklin, Daniher, Fantasia Stewart, Reid, Heeney, Papley among others. Therefore, it will come down to supply and Sydney, traditionally, at the SCG, has been the master of ‘voting against supply in the upper house’.

The 50m arc ‘touches’ the centre square so both teams will never be too far away from their key targets. Essendon were very direct and able to hit the leading centre half forward against Port. They were afforded space and access and cut a path through leaky Port defensive structure. The supply was exciting and brave. The presumption here is that Sydney will bring the opposite to Port. However, therein lies the excitement of the challenge facing Essendon.

The template

Over the course of these articles, I have highlighted Essendon’s improvement areas. We know we have forward line efficiency, goal spread and a back six defence operating at a ‘premiership’ level. Inside 50s conceded, general clearances, conceding inside 50 from clearances and turnovers out of defence are improvement areas. The improvement on the stats sheet against Port was outstanding, with the Bombers nailing all four.

- +90 disposals

- Equal clearances

- 36 scoring shots from 51 entries is outstanding

- 12 marks Inside Forward 50

- + 11 contested possession

- 70 + tackles

- Inside 50 = 67

- Inside 50 concede = 51

Is this sustainable over the course of June, July, and August? Quite simply the very nature of the competition says ‘no’. However, given our conversations over the year in analysing the Dons progress, keep an eye on these numbers. Tick them off every week. While I have limited access to the stats the clubs use I’ll confidently say that if the Dons come close to matching this, then they will not be beaten. 

From a balanced perspective, I can’t see this being emulated against Sydney, particularly at night, in the open at their ground. However, beside mental, physical and tactical application … statistical analysis can certainly be used as a ‘Performance Indicator’.

You will notice coaches usually come out to the huddle with two or three white boards. One is for team placements and match ups. The other usually shows statistical standards. It would show stats targets per quarter, like clearances, Inside 50s, scores from entries, tackles inside 50, time inside 50, turnovers etc. Therefore, players get immediate feedback (statistically) on areas to improve and where they are on target

What matters

The Dons must move ball at quick speed whenever possible. Richmond’s speed at ground level damaged the Swans early. As for Port, does the Swans defence have enough small defenders to hold Essendon’s small crumbers?

Be wary of the Swans youngsters in particular Nic Newman off half back. He has great ability to win a lot of ball and use it. Isaac Heeney will be forward/wing and is exceptionally strong overhead for size.

Then there is the Lance Franklin factor. Do we get the Michael Hurley match up like Alex Rance or opt for the defensive capabilities of Michael Hartley? The reality is if you Franklin to four goals or less at SCG it is a big win.

The Swans have a slow midfield but are very tough. It must be a Bomber focus to match or better.

Finally the Swans won’t want a shootout as they have averaged only 81 points in their last three winning games, kicking 11,12,12 goals. The opposition averaged 65 points in the last three games so the scene is clearly set.

Then there is the Daniher factor. He is a strong target who will be matched up against smaller opponents. 

Summary

‘Old mate’ on Twitter asked ‘why don’t you tip anymore’?

Well, can anyone tip what is going on in this competition?

Let me put it this way. The further away from the MCG the greater the odds swing to the Swans. Essendon take this mob at the MCG. Etihad favours Essendon due to the ‘pace of the ground’. Enter the Swans on the confines of the SCG.

Both teams are in excellent form. Both clubs ‘fear’ each others strengths because it can be their undoing.

Both clubs supporters rule with their heart. For the true independent this game will be a must watch.