THE BACKGROUND

A finals appearance for Essendon in 2018 still isn’t impossible, but it’s nonetheless unlikely after last week’s nail-biting loss to Hawthorn.

The Bombers would not only need to win their last three games, but have a succession of results involving not just one but several other teams fall their way. Their finals fate is now very much out of their hands.

It’s a disappointing outcome given how much promise season 2018 offered. It’s particularly frustrating given how well this team has played since drawing its own line in the sand following the round eight loss to Carlton. Eight wins from the past 11 games is a form line up there with the best in the competition.

But that in itself is motivation enough for Friday night’s final home game of the season against St Kilda at Etihad Stadium.

Whatever finishing position the final three rounds of this season deliver, Essendon has created for itself a very strong platform from which to launch an all-out assault on 2019. The momentum must be maintained.

And there’s every chance to do that against an opponent which has proved one of the biggest disappointments of the AFL season.

In a year which was supposed to see St Kilda at least contending for finals, the Saints have had a nightmare, winning just four games, and last week against the Western Bulldogs after having built a 29-point lead, conceding 8.6 to just five behinds in the third quarter.

St Kilda has some serious list issues to address come season’s end, the Saints routinely beaten around the ball this year and continually butchering what chances have come their way with terrible efficiency in the scoring zone.

The fade-out against the Dogs was one of their worst yet and will have taken a further toll on confidence. Essendon hasn’t had that many opportunities this season to cash in against an opponent down on its fortunes. This game, clearly, is one.

THE BOMBERS

Essendon must pick itself up from the disappointment of last week and a result which could have gone either way but ended up in the negative.

The Bombers had some costly lapses against the Hawks, periods when having established the ascendancy, it was too quickly surrendered. Some costly turnovers, too, potentially even more damaging on the tighter confines of Etihad Stadium.

That said, there were plenty of positives. Zach Merrett’s second half of the season has been superb, but his game against the Hawks was his best effort yet, racking up 41 disposals and never tiring. Devon Smith, meanwhile, continues an incredibly consistent first season in the red-and-black.

Essendon won’t kick the sort of score it compiled against Hawthorn, its fourth-highest of the season, and lose very often.

The forward structure, one of the festering issues of the sloppy start to the season, has been addressed effectively, even in the absence of the injured Joe Daniher, with an effective mix of key position players like Mitch Brown, the medium-sized Jake Stringer, and small forwards Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti.

Last week’s tally yielded 10 individual goalkickers, the sort of spread an aspiring top side needs. And the return of Daniher to that combination next season would have Essendon boasting the type of firepower the envy of most rivals.

THE OPPOSITION

After making gradual progress over the past three seasons, 2018 has been a wretched one for St Kilda, set to finish with its lowest win tally since 2014, the first year of coach Alan Richardson’s tenure.

St Kilda’s season has been shot since early in the piece. After an uninspiring first-up victory over Brisbane, the Saints didn’t win again until round 13 as serious questions about their depth emerged.

There was a brief rally with three wins from a four-game stretch, including a major upset of Melbourne, but the Saints have since lost another three in a row, and with a tough finish against Essendon, Hawthorn and North Melbourne, they could potentially finish as low as 17^th.

Injuries certainly haven’t helped, ruckman Tom Hickey the latest Saint to have his season ended prematurely, ruled out this week a torn hamstring tendon, and joining on the sidelines Josh Bruce, Billy Longer, Paddy McCartin, Dylan Roberton and Shane Savage, along with the now-retired Koby Stevens.

But there is a lengthy list of younger players whose progress has either slowed or stalled this season, the likes of midfielder Jack Steven too often left to carry the load, particularly in midfield.

THE TEAMS

For the second week in a row, Essendon has named an unchanged line-up, though that didn’t end up being the case last Saturday, with Matt Dea and Matt Guelfi both late withdrawals. Neither has been able to prove their fitness in time for this game, their replacements – Travis Colyer and Ben McNeice – holding their spots.

St Kilda has made five changes, meanwhile, only two of them forced, Hickey and Josh Battle both injured, and Nick Coffield, Luke Dunstan and Hunter Clark all omitted. Their replacements are Rowan Marshall, Lewis Pierce, Ben Long, Bailey Rice and Ben Paton, the latter scheduled to make his AFL debut.

THE STATS

While it remains sixth on the contested ball differential rankings, Essendon lost the count by 29 against Hawthorn last week, its heaviest lost in that statistical area all season.

Other figures from the game would suggest that was a problem of organisation rather than intent, however, as in the other key defensive areas of clearances and tackles, the Bombers emerged on top, their differential rankings now a healthy fourth and second respectively.

Essendon is certainly winning its share of scoring opportunities, over the past four games having won the inside 50 count by an average of 17, the best figure in the AFL over that time frame.

The Bombers have also been a far more dangerous outfit since speeding up their ball movement and run. They have recorded 233 running bounces this season – ranked No.1 in the AFL, and 71 more than the next best team.

St Kilda is also a team which likes to keep the ball moving. The Saints have taken a mark and played on 37 per cent of the time this season, the highest percentage recorded by any side.

THE PLAN

Centre bounce ascendancy is particularly important at Etihad Stadium, and here Essendon has a perfect chance to establish it then convert the consequent opportunities.

With ruck pair Hickey and Billy Longer now both out injured, St Kilda’s ruck responsibilities rest with inexperienced 10-gamer Rowan Marshall, giving Tom Bellchambers plenty of scope for a big performance.

Essendon is ranked fourth for clearance differentials, St Kilda a lowly 12^th, so the Dons can really seize the initiative from the bounces and stoppages around the ground and concentrate on quick, clean delivery into the scoring zone.

Leg speed is another area in which Essendon holds the edge, so expect running defensive pair Adam Saad and Conor McKenna to play key roles on transition, while Fantasia and McDonald-Tipungwuti work hard up the ground from the other direction.

St Kilda, as the Bulldogs showed last week, can be scored against quickly if they allow too much of an outside game. Winning the scrap inside and getting the ball out of the congestion to the running brigade should be an Essendon focus this week.

THE RESULT

Where there’s life there’s hope as far as finals are concerned, and given the large edge in percentage being conceded finals rivals, Essendon can and should be going for broke from the outset on the Friday night stage.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.