THE BACKGROUND

The Dreamtime Game has long been one of the signature matches on the AFL calendar. Even when Essendon or Richmond has been struggling it has at least been an occasion to capture the spotlight. But this time, there’s every chance the sausage is going to match the sizzle.

That certainly didn’t look the case only three weeks ago, the Tigers flying, the Bombers having just lost to the previously winless Carlton and in all sorts of trouble with a dismal 2-6 win-loss record.

But the pendulum has swung quite dramatically since then. Essendon has in successive weeks knocked over two top-four teams from last season, first Geelong dispensed with by 34 points, then Greater Western Sydney last week by 35.

At the same time Richmond has stumbled in Perth against top team West Coast, and been pushed all the way by a lowly St Kilda last Saturday before eventually getting home by 28 points.

While you wouldn’t say the Tigers are necessarily ripe for the picking, they are for now at least a little below their intimidating best. And Essendon, having rediscovered its work ethic and hardness, has palpably grown in confidence with the success that has triggered.

Make no mistake, though, this is still a massive challenge for the Bombers nonetheless against the reigning premier.

Richmond plays the MCG better than anyone, having now won 14 games straight at the home of football. The Tigers have also clearly had the wood over the Dons in recent years, having won the last six meetings, Essendon’s win in the 2014 Dreamtime Game its last.

The Dons will have to play every bit as well as against the Cats and Giants, and then perhaps some, to end that streak.

THE BOMBERS

The results of a harder-nosed attitude and a greater willingness by more Bombers to run hard defensively as well as with the ball speak for themselves, with two quality wins against two accomplished teams.

And that example has no doubt been set by the Dons’ leaders, captain Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett arguably their team’s two best players in both victories, and David Zaharakis not far behind.

The forward pressure sadly lacking earlier has returned, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Orazio Fantasia and re-made former defender Mark Baguley leading the way with their tackling, the latter also proving a perhaps surprising source of goals.

The midfield group’s better defensive example seems, happily, to have become contagious, too, Kyle Langford one of a number of lower-profile Bombers who have upped the ante on the pressure front, as well as chipping in with some handy touches inside the heavier traffic around the contest.

Devon Smith, meanwhile continues his outstanding first season in red-and-black, the former Giant laying 13 tackles against his old team last week, the Dons ending up with a tally of 85, 27 more than their opponent, which had to fight hard for every touch.

THE OPPOSITION

Richmond has had to work a lot harder for its scores in recent weeks. After topping 100 points in six of the first seven games this season, the Tigers’ 105 against the Saints last week was the first time they’d reached three figures since round seven against Fremantle.

The Tigers’ forward pressure isn’t quite at the level it was earlier in the season, and with Daniel Rioli still out of the mix and Jason Castagna also injured, more responsibility in that regard has fallen to the likes of 2018 debutant Jack Higgins.

Opponents have also worked hard to attempt to neutralise the influence of champion defender Alex Rance by dragging him closer to goal and away from the spots he can intercept attacks. It worked for the Eagles, but wasn’t quite as successful for St Kilda last week.

That said, the Tigers still found enough last week, both in defence and in attack through the agency of Josh Caddy (six), while skipper Trent Cotchin was superb, and Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin a big influence in Richmond’s much stronger second half.

THE TEAMS

Another impressive performance by the Dons has led to just one enforced change at selection, defender Patrick Ambrose out for at least three weeks with a calf strain. The replacement is more than handy, however, Michael Hurley returning to the fray after missing the past two games with a hamstring strain.

Richmond breathed easier on Thursday night when spearhead Jack Riewoldt was declared fit after being concussed just five minutes into last week’s game. Not so fortunate was important running defender Bachar Houli, who injured a groin against the Saints and is sitting out this clash with his old team.

THE STATS

The turnaround in the Bombers’ form continues to show up on the statistics sheet as well as the scoreboard.

At the completion of round eight, Essendon on the differentials was barely breaking even in the tackle count, and in the red for both contested ball and clearances.

Significantly, in the two wins over Geelong and GWS, the Dons were well in front of their opponents for tackles, won the stoppages in both games, and won contested ball against the Cats and last week were all but even against the Giants.

Essendon lost another third term against GWS, making it just one win from 10, but the Bombers’ final quarters have generally been strong, and last Saturday’s 6.3 the best since the round one comeback win against Adelaide.

It makes for an interesting climax in this game if it’s tight at the last change, Richmond having outscored its opponents by a total of 128 points in final terms, ranked No.1 in the competition.

THE PLAN

Richmond’s pressure remains as formidable as any team, so the more efficient, quicker ball movement Essendon has found over the past two rounds will need to be maintained lest the Dons end up trapped too long in their defensive area.

The defensive work of the midfield group remains critical to that, with deeper running into the back 50 in the last two wins having allowed running defenders Conor McKenna and Adam Saad off the leash a lot more and freer to push up into the midfield.

And with a decent spread of smaller goalkickers in recent games, the Bombers appear right now to have more forward set-up options even in the absence of Joe Daniher.

The height of James Stewart and Shaun McKernan will be matched by their mobility, and as good as Richmond’s defence has been again this season, it could be tested for agility at ground level, Houli’s loss also potentially making it easier to prevent the Tigers escaping the forward 50.

THE RESULT

A huge occasion, a huge crowd, and given recent form, clearly a huge game in its own right. A poor start to the season has left many observers still hedging their bets on Essendon even after the last fortnight. But a third straight win against this calibre of opposition, and it will be hard not to concede that the Bombers are very much back in business.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.