A psychological and mental challenge clearly meets both sides.

For the first time in four years, Essendon played without restraint of some form against a huge, traditional opponent.  It was a mentally and physically taxing game with emotional support from a pulsating crowd.

Enjoy the win, but when does the elation subside and ‘we’ get back to work?

For me Essendon’s season and the remaining 22 game grind starts this week.

Essendon has an experienced coach, a core of experienced players and strong leadership.  Up one week and down the next, based on an emotional rollercoaster is unacceptable.  Brisbane will be hard to beat so if Essendon present themselves any less than 100 per cent focused then the Lions will get their second win.

Brisbane are very young and despite a brilliant first half performance held on for a great win for the club against Gold Coast in round one. Their young players will be up and about, as the win reinforced the game plan, the pre-season and the belief in their Coach.  They return home to their ground and supporters, no doubt euphoric with their efforts.  Overall, both coaches have a great role to play in the mental preparation of their team. Essendon on paper have the more grounded seasoned professionals.

THE WEATHER

Tipped to be 26 degrees with 75 per cent humidity and an approaching cyclone.  If the weather stays fine, there will still be a dew issue.  However, 100ml of rain is forecast over the next 24 hours so prepare for anything.  This would mean taking an extended squad to Brisbane with the option of making late changes. 

SELECTION

Essendon have lost the handy Josh Green.  His three-way partnership with Fantasia and McDonald-Tipungwuti was very important.  It allowed the latter two to play higher up the ground in the second half, which gave Essendon a significant speed advantage midfield.  In addition, he kept the handy Duryea away from the dangerous ‘goal sneaks’.

Essendon have brought in Ben Howlett.  He is a smart footballer and has nearly 60 goals to his name.  He can go through the midfield and, importantly, is a strong tough competitor. This is a good selection.

Essendon will take a squad to the Virgin Lounge.  I would not be surprised to see a last minute change depending on soreness (from the week before), increasing run and certainly taking into account the local weather pattern.  There is always a general reluctance to change a winning team but a horses for courses policy, particularly at the Gabba, early in the season must be considered. If the weather turns, Hocking (names as an emergency) could go with Beams.

Brisbane have also made one change.  It appears that Hugh McCluggage and Josh Schache are still underdone.  Jack Frost is available after serving a one-match suspension, but picking him over Harris Andrews, Dan McStay or Darcy Gardiner would be a big call.  He will come into the side, as besides the defence he also allows the likes of McStay to go forward. Excpect Frost to go forward also.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 

Last week the Lions opponent, Gold Coast, had more disposals, more clearances, ten more centre clearances, 32 more inside 50's, more tackles and ten more marks. That's great in SuperCoach, but as I have preached, keep your eyes on the game and not the stats sheet.

At one stage, Brisbane led 7.3.45 to 0.1.1.  Chris Fagan would be genuinely alarmed at conceding 74 Inside 50’s. Their back six led by Harris Andrews held off those 74 inside 50's allowing Lynch just three goals.

Their ‘big’ four’ - the accumulator Rockliff (37 possessions), the explosive Zorko (23, 10 tackles and 8 inside 50’s and the classy Beams (28) are all very different types of players, but as a combination they will keep any midfield on their toes.  Shaun McKernan will also have to adapt to a totally opposite player (from McEvoy) in Stefan Martin. 23 disposals, 7 clearances and 33 hit outs.

One player that really impressed me was number 26 Tom Cutler.  He was part of an impressive back six and led the rebounding out of the Lions defence with ten rebound 50’s.  Significantly he went at 83% efficiency.  You might not know his name now. Let us hope you still do not know him after the game.

BEATING BRISBANE

- Watson, Heppell and Merrett versus Rockliff, Beams and Zorko. Winner takes all.

- Test their young players energy reserves. They tired badly last week when Gold Coast lifted.  Lift in the last part of quarters across the ground making them work hard both ways.

- Brisbane used scintillating pace, instinctive handball and efficient direct ball movement. They kicked seven goals in the first 20 minutes using this system so, as the travelling team, Essendon would be happy with ‘scores level’ at quarter time.  Allow these blokes to get their confidence up at your own peril.  The old adage; start well away from home.

- Be happy to take the pace off the game. The Lions look as though they want up-tempo football.  Be circumspect with ball use.  During changes in momentum, deny them the ball for periods, as this will frustrate their desire to attack.  Make them defend Essendon’s kicking game.

- Do not underestimate the ‘no names’.  Brisbane has 15 players on the ground that were thumped by the Saints in round 23 last year.  Their improvement has come from within.

- Keep working Beams over.  He had a brilliant first half with 21 touches but only seven for the second half.  He has come back from considerable injury so do not let up on their skipper.  Work him hard in the second half.

ESSENDON MUST

- If you find yourself accountable at any stage for Daniel Rich (despite his average possession game), his left foot from centre forward will devastate you.  He is fitter, motivated under Fagan and committed to the Lions.  Play on his left foot and take ownership if you are in his area.  The Gabba is made for him.

- Once again, forward half pressure will be the key.  This must be the trademark of all Essendon’s performances.  Gold Coast applied zero pressure.  The Gabba is a quick transition ground that suits the teams that move the ball fluently and without pressure.

- Last week Essendon had 65 tackles against the Hawks.  Essendon may need closer to 80 this week.  Therefore creating turnovers (for both sides) will be important as both sides have worked very hard on their forward 50 entries.

- Make young Harris Andrews work.  He was anchored to full back on Lynch and was comfortable.  Hooker and Daniher must continually rotate on him from centre half forward to full forward.  Keep moving, keep leading then roll over on him so he has to adjust to different opponents.  Then test him again by throwing Watson to full forward.  With young defenders, they may follow their opponents right up the ground.  Unsettle them by using an open ‘paddock’ and make them chase back to goal.

- Have mobility, multi-dimensional and unpredictable options up forward.  The Gold Coast were too focused on Lynch.  They did concede and alarming 74 inside 50s so test the water.

- Remain focused on a mentally tough four-quarter effort. To quote captain Beams: ‘we just ran out of gas’.

It was exhilarating last week (for Essendon).  However, each game throws up different circumstances.  Be mindful that you can ‘win ugly’ and get on the plane with four points.

- If remnants of Cyclone Debbie arrive at the Stanley Street end be prepared to adapt to Plan B, particularly with the effective use of an unconventional forward line. Jobe Watson is a forward x-factor for mine.

BRENT STANTON

250 Essendon games. ‘Humphrey’ came to Essendon as a 17 year old and did not speak for four years. Hence the name. A proud, consistent and loyal Essendon man.

TIP

Essendon by one point.