As I said in last week’s preview, the ANZAC Day game would be won and lost on one stat and one stat alone. The Bombers were far more efficient with 15 goals from 43 forward 50 entries, compared to the Magpies' 11 goals from 66 entries.

Essendon looked fresh and sharp, and apart from a Daniel Wells surge in the 3^rd quarter held a comfortable lead for most of the day.

After a 10-day break, the Dons now front up again after four days rest - hence the changes to the team. It’s not much different for the Demons who will front up pretty sore after their Monday night clash against the Tigers. So the short turnaround should be considered as pretty even, with Melbourne getting the Tuesday as an extra recovery day.

The Etihad Stadium surface is a fast track so selection would have taken both teams considerable time as they look to put a fresh, fast team at this ground.

Statistics

Both sides are high disposal teams in 2017. Melbourne is ranked second in the competition, averaging 411 a game and Essendon is fourth at 403 a game. The Demons are also ranked second for uncontested possessions with an average of 262 per outing.

Melbourne has been good at giving its forwards a chance this season; it is ranked sixth in the league for inside-50 entries, averaging 55.8. Essendon is averaging just 47 entries a game – the worst in the competition. But they’ve covered this stat by having greater efficiency in the forward 50.

Essendon's scoring continue to improve this season, averaging 91 points a game compared to 65 in 2016. The Bombers have also reached 100 points in three of their five games and are reasonably accurate (68 goals and 49 behinds).

Selection

How will Melbourne manage in the ruck with Jake Spencer (AC joint) joining first-choice big man Max Gawn (hamstring) on the sidelines? Jordan Lewis is a welcome addition as the Demons look to revitalise and add some depth to their midfield. He will add stability, strength and experience, but not a lot of pace.

Going on the named line-ups, I would expect Essendon’s bench to remain stable with Parish, Green, Watson and Stanton. McKenna adds pace so that will be a late change consideration, maybe for McGrath depending on how the young man has pulled up. He has had a big campaign so far.

Martin Gleeson returns to the Essendon side after missing the last two games.

Essendon has also named Howlett and Gleeson in the starting 18. Francis with his current fitness condition could not ‘butter up’ four days later and a fresh ruckman is a good move.

For Melbourne, Cam Pedersen is a certainty along with Oscar McDonald and Jordan Lewis. Melbourne’s team is lacking a key forward (no Hogan) so maybe young Weideman gets another opportunity.

The injury room

Sadly, the Demons will lose young Hogan through the loss of his father. Melbourne’s height will be stretched given Gawn, Spencer and now Hogan will miss. New Demon Tim Smith suffered a knee to the ribs. Melbourne's biggest concern will be ruckman Jake Spencer, with the shoulder injury. Christian Petracca was hobbling toward the end of the game with his knee bandaged. It will be interesting how he pulls up on the shorter turnaround. Essendon are in good shape and are able to rotate their list given the short break, seemingly without any effect to team structure and balance.

Let's look at Melbourne

The starting point for the Goodwin coached Demons is being strong around the contest and aggressive with their defensive positioning and pressure. Although Melbourne has lost three consecutive games, it is still very good in this area. The fact the Demons are now the fourth-ranked team in the competition for tackle differential (+5.6), after being 17th last season (-10.1), underlines the Goodwin influence. Melbourne is also first in the AFL for pressure factor (1.86), which is clearly a non-negotiable under Goodwin’s, coaching.

Melbourne remains a developing side (it had 12 players with fewer than 50 games experience against the Tigers) and is still prone to lapses in concentration at points in games. It would be of concern for the Demons that they have lost the last three games when basically controlling the game. They have been unlucky with injury but may lack the pace to run over the top of teams, due to their physically combative style.

The pace and run of Jayden Hunt becomes critical to Melbourne. What an absorbing match up if we get the extreme pace and running of Hunt versus a Fantasia or McDonald-Tipungwuti. Great excitement.

Hibberd meets his old mates … he played very well but cramp got him at the end of the game. He may struggle second up chasing Colyer or Fantasia.

Six more scoring shots than the Cats – including 19 behinds – cost Melbourne victory, before it gave up a 21-point lead at half time against Fremantle. On Monday night, Melbourne squandered a 20-point lead at three quarter-time to fall short against a still undefeated Richmond, giving the Dees a 2-3 win/loss record after five rounds.  The Demons led by a game-high 27 points in the second term thanks to five-straight goals, only for the Dockers to surge 22 points clear at three-quarter time after eight consecutive majors of their own.  Against Geelong, they went nearly three goals up in the 3^rd quarter and still led 12.17 to 14.2 at ¾ time before conceding 6.4 to 1.2.

It was the same pattern against the Tigers. At ¾ time, Melbourne led 11.7 to 7.11. They did have an excuse as significant injuries limited their options. The Tigers kicked 5.5 to 0.2. They have been injury hampered and lack of discipline cost them Lewis and Hogan.

Essendon

The Bombers are scoring 49.6 per cent of the time they enter the forward 50 and are kicking a goal in 28.8 per cent of their inside-50 forays. This places them in third spot in the AFL, a big improvement from their efforts to kick a goal from 19.7 per cent of their entries last season, which ranked them last. This was clearly the key to the Collingwood win.

The Coach would be concerned with conceding 66 inside 50. Essendon’s fluency and efficiency (plus their forward line structure) was far greater than Collingwood. However, eventually that stat is going to bite hard because and opposition forwards will not be as dysfunctional as Collingwood’s. As I have said previously, Essendon’s team goal should be to get that figure around mid-50’s.

Essendon’s ground level pace will worry Melbourne, as it does most teams. Melbourne with the addition of Lewis will try to wage a physical battle with the Essendon midfield, who may be a little tired.

Tom Bellchambers will make his return for the Bombers against Melbourne.

Bellchambers is in good form and will control the tap outs. Pedersen and Watts will provide athleticism around the ground. Leuenberger was great against Grundy but probably needs the rest.

Essendon must use their pace on the fast track at Etihad. They have the tall forwards to cause problems on the smaller ground. Daniher, Hooker and Francis are an ideal front three so it’s disappointing that he can’t get up again. Going on that theory and on the dry track surely Stewart plays to maintain that excellent balance.

Tip

Melbourne will hammer Essendon hard around the football.  Can they run with Essendon over the final stages?  Essendon has the forward line. Melbourne has a makeshift ruck. Gawn is the spiritual leader of this side and will be missed.

If fit and fresh, it’s Essendon by under 20 points, but it will come down to how the Bombers mids have recovered. The Demons are strong in the midfield and a Melbourne win would not surprise.

Note: Thoughts are with young Melbourne forward, Jesse Hogan, on the sad passing of his Dad.