It may not be officially designated as a blockbuster, but any Essendon clash with Hawthorn might as well be, such is the depth of feeling between these two clubs, spawned in the early 1980s, but still as strong as ever even 35-odd years down the track.
Think of the Bombers v Hawks, and you instantly recall names like Watson, Madden, Baker and Brereton, DiPierdomenico and Ayres.
Think of more recent times, and you recall the infamous 'Line in the Sand' match of 2004, Cale Hooker’s match-winning snap in 2015, or the emotional round one clash two years ago when a host of Bombers made their returns to the game after serving year-long suspensions.
And this clash is no less significant. A week off has enabled Essendon to take stock of what’s required in the second half of the season to mount an assault on the finals. To further that campaign at the expense of an old enemy would be particularly sweet.
What’s it going to take to win? Here’s five key questions to getting the desired result.
1. Hawthorn has dominated these clashes for years now. What’s been the problem?
It’s nine losses from the last 11 meetings with the Hawks in a run going back to 2010, to be precise. Why? Well, let’s not pretend class hasn’t been the main reason. That period has taken in three Hawthorn premierships and four grand final appearances, and only once in that entire span have the Hawks missed out on at least making finals.
The Hawks aren’t what they once were, though, and the last three meetings over the last two years have produced a win and losses by only four and 23 points. Serial big performers against the Bombers like Lance Franklin and Sam Mitchell are long gone. And Tom Mitchell, who carved up the Essendon midfield in both clashes last season, hasn’t been there all year.
A lot of responsibility for Hawthorn’s fortunes now rests with Jaeger O’Meara in midfield (see below), and up forward in the hands of Jack Gunston and Luke Breust, who shared eight goals last meeting in round 20 last season. Curb O’Meara and put the scoring brakes on Gunston and Breust, and the Bombers will go a long way towards a first win over the Hawks since the opening round of 2017.
2. How big are the stakes this week?
Every game is important, of course, but this one really is one of those classic 'eight-point' affairs, both Essendon and Hawthorn with 5-6 records after 11 games, two of the four teams on five wins, one game outside the top eight. The two teams just above on 6-5, Fremantle and Port Adelaide, play each other in Perth on Saturday. A big-enough defeat by one of them and a decent-sized Essendon victory could have the Bombers back inside the eight by Saturday evening.
Friday night is also the start of a very challenging run of games, which after the clash with the Hawks sees the Bombers taking on West Coast in Perth then Greater Western Sydney at home.
Realistically, the Dons need to win at least two of the three to stay on track for a finals spot. And that aside, there’s the pride factor. No-one associated with Essendon can ever stomach losing to Hawthorn, particularly now when a perennial power of the competition looks as vulnerable as it has for a long time.
3. How significant are the changes to the line-up?
Very. A mere glance at the names Dylan Shiel, Orazio Fantasia and Jake Stringer in the 'in' column says enough, but the importance of their returns really can’t be overstated.
Shiel ranks behind only Zach Merrett this season for ball-getting ability, with an average 28 disposals per game, but also ranks second for contested ball, fourth for tackles and is No.1 for both general clearances and centre clearances.
Stringer’s capacity to add to the midfield mix shouldn’t be underestimated, and he ranks top 10 for tackles, centre clearances and contested possession. But Stringer’s main value remains up forward, where he and Fantasia give a whole new and more dangerous look to a forward set-up which has struggled for personnel.
Despite the games they’ve missed, the pair remain second and third in the club goalkicking tally, and their mobility and football smarts ensure Hawthorn will be coming up against a forward set-up not only more potent in scoreboard terms, but more dynamic and mobile than the Bombers have been able to cobble together for several weeks now.
Jake Stringer's versatility makes him a dangerous proposition for the Hawks. (Photo: AFL Media)
4. Should Essendon play a hard tag on a leading Hawthorn midfielder?
Absolutely. It worked a treat against Carlton, Dylan Clarke in just his second game keeping Carlton star Patrick Cripps to just 11 disposals, a season low for him, while collecting 23 touches of his own. And with Dylan Shiel and Jake Stringer back in the mix to look after more midfield responsibilities, there’s even more scope for Clarke to pay full attention to a leading Hawthorn on-baller.
Who should it be? The obvious candidates are Jaeger O’Meara, Ricky Henderson or James Worpel. You’d think O’Meara is the man to target, though, given that while Henderson has had a fraction more ball, it’s O’Meara who leads the Hawks for both clearances and contested ball, hits the scoreboard hardest of the trio, and is the classiest act in a side which needs every bit of it.
Cut O’Meara’s contribution out of the equation and you’d think Hawthorn may struggle to match it with the Essendon midfield contingent, particularly on the outside, where without the former Sun prominent, they may struggle for sufficient supply.
After curbing Patrick Cripps, Dylan Clarke could line up on Hawks star Jaeger O'Meara on Friday night. (Photo: AFL Media)
5. Both teams had the bye last week. Which will benefit more from the break?
Team selection tells the biggest tale here, with three big inclusions for the Bombers in Shiel, Stringer and Fantasia, none of whom would have made it to the line were this game played last weekend.
On paper, at least, there’s a significant difference between the strength of this selected 22 and the side the Dons fielded in round 11 against Carlton.
Hawthorn’s casualties, meanwhile, have been added to with the loss of Chad Wingard, who injured a hamstring in the Hawks’ round 11 loss to Brisbane. It’s worth noting that the Hawks for the last four seasons have come out of their mid-season bye with a win, funnily enough three times against Adelaide and on the other occasion Port Adelaide.
Essendon has had mixed results over the same period, but has handled the layoff a lot better the last couple, losing a heartbreaker by one point right on the siren against Sydney two seasons ago, but last year scoring arguably its best win of the season against West Coast in Perth.
Individually, ruckman Tom Bellchambers is one player likely to have benefitted the most. He looked sore indeed in recent games, but will have been assisted greatly by a two-week gap between games.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.
