THE BACKGROUND

Essendon’s recent improvement had been undeniable even before last week’s win in Perth against West Coast. That victory, however, has made it patently obvious the Bombers are now a serious proposition for any opponent, no matter how good.

Against a team second on the ladder, and in a city they’d departed the seven previous occasions as losers, the Bombers were terrific, their six-goals-to-one-behind opening term as good a 30 minutes of football as the Dons had played for years.

This was the Essendon the football world had been anticipating throughout the entirety of 2018, quick, direct and potent up forward, that attacking bent also underpinned by a hardness at the contest and fierce physical pressure on the opposition.

Not to mention a greater resilience, apparent when the Eagles mounted a determined comeback, the Bombers hanging on grimly for an eventual 28-point win, kicking only six goals after the first term but also holding West Coast to as many.

The upshot was a fourth win from five games. And while a clash with a vastly-improved North Melbourne would only a month or so ago have seemed a daunting assignment, it now looms as a genuine 50-50 proposition.

For Essendon, two games outside the top eight, it’s a virtual “eight-point” game, North Melbourne, eighth on percentage, one of the cluster of teams above the Dons on whom they can close the gap with a win.

That, though, will be easier said than done. The Roos might have been a tad fortunate to get over the line against the Western Bulldogs last week, but in contrast to last season, when they lost five games by a total of just 14 points, they’re now winning the close ones, and like the Dons, have also won four of their last five.

THE BOMBERS

The growth of confidence is palpable among a playing group starting to see the results of hard work, and was obvious to anyone who watched that first quarter against the Eagles.

It wasn’t just a scoreboard which read 6.2 to one behind when the siren rang that told the whole story, it was the way Essendon put its game together which was so impressive.

The ball movement was swift and came through the corridor, running defender Adam Saad particularly conspicuous. That direct play gave the forwards plenty of room in which to work, Jake Stringer cashing in with three goals and Mitch Brown also doing plenty of damage as well as negating the intercept marking ability of Jeremy McGovern.

But at the same time, the Dons were ferocious at the contest. So much so that despite having racked up 40 more disposals than West Coast by the first break, Essendon had almost doubled the Eagles for tackles, and also won the contested ball and clearance counts, skipper Dyson Heppell, Devon Smith and Zach Merrett all outstanding around the action.

Defensively, Cale Hooker played one of his best games of the season, with Brendon Goddard prolific as playmaker from behind centre as all parts of the ground pulled their weight.

It was another perfect example of just how capable this Essendon line-up is when all the boxes are ticked, strong clearance work, a winning ruck performance from Tom Bellchambers and plenty of hard and smart running adding up to arguably the best win of the year.

THE OPPOSITION

North Melbourne had plenty of scoring power even last year as it struggled to just six wins, but the Roos have become a much better team in 2018 on the back of a sturdier defensive mechanism and some outstanding individual seasons.

The Roos’ defensive improvement has been quite stunning. Last season, they conceded nearly 103 points per game, the third-worst record in the AFL. Currently, they’re ranked second behind Geelong, conceding just 73 points per game, a massive five less goals each week, more than enough to turn many of those narrow losses of last year into victories in 2018.

Shaun Higgins is in career-best form for the Roos in midfield, averaging 27 disposals for the season and in the last three games compiling 30-plus possession tallies as well as kicking five goals.

He’s had great support, too, from Ben Cunnington, the North hard-nut currently ranked third in the AFL for both clearances and contested possession.

And up forward, Ben Brown is a huge threat, the mop-haired Taswegian leading the Coleman Medal with 40 goals at an average of three per game, his five last week the difference against the Bulldogs and the fourth time this season he’d kicked five goals or more.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has lost just one player from last week’s big win, Mason Redman out for some time with a serious ankle injury.

The Bombers have added Travis Colyer, Kobe Mutch, James Stewart, Patrick Ambrose and Aaron Francis to a 26-man squad which will be trimmed to a final 22 late on Friday afternoon.

North Melbourne has also lost one player from last week, speedster Billy Hartung out with a hamstring strain, and has added Ben Jacobs, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Ryan Clarke, Ben McKay and Cameron Zurhaar to its squad. The Roos will sweat on the availability of critical run-with man Ben Jacobs, who was a late withdrawal last week after suffering delayed concussion symptoms.

THE STATS

The clearances and contested ball battle looms large in this game. North Melbourne has been strong all season at the contest and is currently ranked fourth on the differentials compared to Essendon’s eighth. The Bombers, however, have been better at the stoppages, ranked third on the differentials, the Roos seventh.

Centre bounce takeaways are always critical at Etihad Stadium, and while neither side has fared particularly well in this area in 2018 (the Dons ranked 14^th and North 16^th), both teams’ ruckmen, Tom Bellchambers and Todd Goldstein, are in good form, making the ascendancy in the middle on Sunday perhaps the difference for either side.

While Essendon’s third quarters have remained an issue all season, winning just one of 12 to date, the Bombers have also been serial good starters, their opening term average score of 24.5 points the best in the competition.

Not that it wasn’t apparent to the naked eye, but North Melbourne spearhead Ben Brown is the AFL’s No.1 “go to” man, the Roos targeting the Coleman Medal leader with nearly 39 per cent of their inside 50 entries, well-ahead of the next most-targeted key forward.

THE PLAN

Given the statistic mentioned above, curtailing the influence and output of Brown must be a key focus. It also throws up an interesting structural poser.

Cale Hooker was terrific in defence last week, and shapes as an obvious match-up for Brown. But he was also the difference up forward when the two sides last met in round 18 last season, finishing with five goals.

That same game saw Brown finish with six goals in a decisive positional victory over Michael Hurley, while Jarrad Waite also kicked four.

Waite out injured allows the Dons to focus more defensive attention on Brown, but Hooker’s presence would provide extra security. And while earlier in the season it may have left a considerable hole (even more so with Joe Daniher still absent), Essendon’s speedier, more efficient ball movement has enabled it to go with a slightly less-tall forward set-up of late.

Which, not surprisingly, makes the midfield again pivotal to the outcome. Big games from the just re-signed Bellchambers in the ruck, Heppell, Smith and Merrett, particularly in a defensive sense, will give the Dons options they won’t have the luxury of otherwise.

And pace again shapes as a big weapon. North Melbourne is a good pressure team, but not overly quick, and has now lost the speedy Hartung. It offers a real opportunity not only for Saad and Conor McKenna off half-back, but Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti working higher up the ground to exploit an Essendon advantage.

THE RESULT

Essendon has often had trouble with the Roos in recent times, winning only one of seven encounters before last season’s 27-point win. But the Dons are again playing as well as they were at the time of that victory, and the high stakes are producing urgent, effective football. It’s another “must win”, but one they have every chance of achieving.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.