THE BACKGROUND

Uncertainty from game to game is a fact of life in an AFL competition more even than ever, but it’s fair to say Essendon’s clash with Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium on Saturday night has even more an air of uncertainty than usual.

It pits one team which in the space of eight days turned in its worst and best performances of the season against another which despite being an almost universal pick to finish high in the final eight instead sits 11^th with just four wins from nine games and having lost its last three games in a row.

Just which version of Essendon and the Giants will present themselves this week?

Injuries have hovered over both clubs of late, though GWS has clearly suffered to a greater extent, the absence of the likes of Tom Scully, Toby Greene, Josh Kelly and more recently Brett Deledio compromising the Giants’ ability to play the sort of flowing, attacking football they can turn on at their best.

Essendon will be without spearhead Joe Daniher for several weeks yet and defender Martin Gleeson’s season-long absence has hurt in defence, but last week against the Cats even without that pair, plus Michael Hurley and Andrew McGrath, the Bombers played a better brand than they’d shown over the first two months of the season.

THE BOMBERS

Debutant Jordan Ridley was an instant hit against Geelong with clean disposal and smart decisions, but it was the workrate and defensive pressure across the board which made the Bombers look a different side.

It was an intent which was obvious right from the first bounce last Saturday, Essendon dominating the tackle account 91-68 against the Cats despite having the lion’s share of possession.

Nowhere was the greater defensive focus more evident than in the preparedness of the midfield, led by Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell and David Zaharakis to work deep into defence to help out their teammates as well as running hard when the Dons had the ball.

Better efforts on the pressure front from small forward Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who played easily his best game of the season, as well as Mark Baguley as a defensive forward also made a big difference, but even the Dons’ taller key position types looked notably more committed to locking the ball inside the forward 50.

Shaun McKernan was another standout with four goals and some strong efforts in the ruck, and while consistency hasn’t always been a strong point, his presence this week, particularly with Daniher still out, could also prove important.

THE OPPOSITION

Even allowing for injuries, it’s been a bitterly disappointing month or so for GWS, their only victory in that period coming against then-winless bottom team Brisbane.

The Giants have had some real issues scoring, currently ranked just 13^th for points scored, at 78.8 points per game averaging nearly three fewer goals per game than last year, when they were ranked sixth.

Greene’s loss, along with poor form from key forward Jonathon Patton, poor enough to see him omitted last week, has been a key to that demise, while the absence of Scully and Kelly in particular has seen the Giants look a far more pedestrian proposition through the middle of the ground.

Somewhat ironically, coach Leon Cameron’s determination to make his side more defensively resolute has to an extent yielded fruit, the Giants, even going at just 50 per cent in win-loss terms after nine rounds having to date this season conceded around a goal per game less than in 2017.

But the greater steeliness was supposed to be an extra string to the GWS bow, not a kind of trade-off for their stronger attacking suit which appears to have been the concession made, slower builds into attack not necessarily complementing what has over the last couple of seasons proved very slick ball movement.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has made just one change to last week’s winning 22, with McGrath returning to the mix after a calf injury to replace Clarke. Fellow debutant Ridley holds his spot, however, while there is still no Hurley.

The Giants will be happy to have Kelly back in the mix for his first game since round three after recovering from a groin injury. Patton is also back in favour, while Matt Buntine returns for his first senior game since round two last year, when he tore an ACL.

That trio replace Lachie Keeffe, Jeremy Finlayson and Isaac Cumming, all three players omitted and co-captain and key defender Phil Davis still on the sidelines.

THE STATS

The Bombers’ 34-point win over Geelong was mirrored in statistical areas other than merely the scoreboard, and significantly, in areas in which the Dons had been struggling.

Prior to last Saturday, Essendon on the differentials was in the red for inside 50 entries, contested possession and clearances. It won all three categories against the Cats.

Most promisingly, that greater pressure across the ground, and in particular in the front half, was turned into scoreboard gain. The Bombers had been averaging only 47 points per game from turnovers. Against the Cats, that became a healthier 8.8 (56).

The defensive workrate, even without Hurley in the line-up, enabled the backline to hold Geelong to only 50 points, nearly six goals less than the Dons’ next-best defensive return so far in 2018.

Essendon also finally won a third quarter – albeit by only four points – for the first time all season.

THE PLAN

The Bombers last week returned to playing a more effective style of football, the hesitance with ball in hand disappearing and the Dons regularly catching their opponent out on the break.

It’s a formula which can be just as effective against the Giants or any other side. But the greatest lesson learned against Geelong should be that it is the preparedness to exert fierce pressure on the opposition ball-carriers and for the midfield in particular to work as hard with its defensive running as on the attack which creates much of that opportunity.

The defensive workrate of Merrett, Heppell and Zaharakis against the Cats not only helped protect the back six but the safety in numbers also allowed the likes of Conor McKenna and Adam Saad to use their run more creatively and effectively become de facto on-ballers.

It is a mindset which, if repeated, will give the Bombers a very good chance of pulling off consecutive victories for the first time since late last season.

THE RESULT

The Giants have won the last three clashes between the two teams, two of them at this same venue. But they haven’t been easy wins, even in 2016 when Essendon was playing with a weakened line-up. Given the recent form of GWS, there’s every chance those narrow defeats can this time be turned into victory.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.