This time last year, Jacob Weitering was already batting away questions about being the likely No.1 draft pick. Two years earlier, Tom Boyd had stamped himself as the first choice by April, and the year before that Lachie Whitfield started 2012 knowing he was probably going to be the first name called on draft night.

This year is different. With the division one NAB AFL Under-18 Championships beginning in less than two weeks and half a season largely lapsed, there is no clear candidate for the No.1 pick.

"I can't remember a year like it, to be honest," one recruiter said.

There are a few reasons why. One is the lack of a standout key position player. Clubs love taking tall forwards and defenders early in the draft – eight of the first 16 picks at last year's intake were talls – but the players with the runs on the board this year are midfielders and smalls.

And that has created a wider spread of views about the potential candidates for pick one than might be the case for a marking goalkicker like Boyd or super smart defender in Weitering.

Sam Petrevski-Seton has been linked to the No.1 choice since his brilliant under-16 championships on the Gold Coast in 2014. The skillful West Australia has already achieved plenty – he was named the best player at that under-16 carnival, made the under-18 All-Australian team as a bottom-ager last year and also played senior footy for Claremont when he was 17.

This year has been a little frustrating, with the half-forward/midfielder having some groin and hamstring troubles and not yet featuring at senior WAFL level. But he has lifted in big games before and if Petrevski-Seton blitzes the national carnival expect him to rocket into favouritism for the No.1 spot.

Ben Ainsworth entered the season in the conversation for the first picked, but has had a difficult first half of the season. The Victorian small forward broke his wrist in January, suffered a knee injury on return, and was then suspended for four games for separate incidents at TAC Cup level.

Nonetheless, he has already shown his brilliance up forward and around goal, and was the second leading goalkicker in last year's national carnival. At 178cm he would be a rare size for a No.1 choice, but he has some special natural traits in his marking and footy sense.  

Will Brodie deserves strong consideration to be called out first. The competitive midfielder performs consistently and looks the type of player you could comfortably place in a team long-term. Hard, a good size and smart overhead, you know what you'll get with Brodie. If he's not the best midfielder in the draft, then he's very close.

Jarrod Berry is another Victorian prospect who may come into contention. At 191cm, the North Ballarat captain is a great size to play all over the ground but has also had his injury issues. Fortunately, a recent AC joint problem won't keep him out of Vic Country's championships.

Two northern academy prospects – Jack Bowes (Gold Coast) and Will Setterfield (GWS) – would be well in the mix if not already tied to clubs. Bowes' poise and Setterfield's mobility and versatility make them appealing players, but it's hard to see a club losing grip of the coveted No.1 choice by placing a bid on an academy player they know will ultimately be matched.

Another name thrown into the group as a 'wait and see' possibility is Todd Marshall, who might be the leading key position player in the pool. Marshall's disqualification from GWS' academy and entry into the open pool delighted clubs looking for a leading, marking, goalkicking 198cm prospect. He has some serious tools.

Hugh McCluggage has risen up the board based on a run of good form but No.1 seems a stretch at this stage, while others, like Daniel Venables, have shown talent without consistency yet. Broken legs to Jy Simpkin and Alex Witherden have also cut short the potential rise of two possible early picks. 

The lack of a clear candidate for the first pick means other things could be considered. It hasn't happened since 2001, but a club could try to offload the pick. Crafty recruiters and list managers would be looking at ways to turn the first choice into more and still get quality high-end talent.

Could there be another Josh Kelly-Christian Salem-Dom Tyson type of trade like the Giants and Melbourne engineered three years ago? Could a club turn pick one into pick six and 10? "I wouldn't bite at that," another recruiter said. "At this stage there's a chance you could get two of your top-five ranked players at those spots. Everyone is seeing it differently."

Things might start to clear up in the next month. It was during the 2014 carnival that it became clear Paddy McCartin and Christian Petracca would battle it out to be the first player picked that year. And so we look ahead to June's division one championships with one question front of mind: who wants to be No.1?