THE BACKGROUND

How much is at stake for Essendon at the MCG on Saturday? It’s hard to overstate how much, and it’s about far more than mere bragging rights over a traditional rival.

Six games into a season is pretty early to be talking crisis, but if the Bombers lose a third game in a row, and a fifth time in six rounds, finals qualification would require a turnaround of the proportions of Sydney’s revival from a 0-6 scoreline last year.

But that, let alone September, can’t even be a consideration right now. Essendon must win simply to restore confidence, credibility, and a win-loss ratio that would read far more palatably at 3-4 than it would at 2-5.

To do so will require an enormous lift across the board on what was shown on Anzac Day against Collingwood and last Sunday against Melbourne, but particularly from the more senior faces in the line-up, most of whom would unhappily concede that their present form is well below their best.

And it won’t be easy against the side fourth on the AFL ladder, Hawthorn 4-2 with one of the losses a narrow defeat only to reigning premier Richmond.

While missing important small forwards Cyril Rioli and Paul Puopolo, the Hawks nonetheless ground out an efficient enough win last week over St Kilda in Launceston, Isaac Smith not only in hot form midfield, but helping fill the goalscoring void with four of his own. They are playing, even weakened by injuries to key players, a solid brand of football.

THE BOMBERS

Essendon’s 2018 pattern of a win followed by two losses augurs well for Saturday. Some might also take comfort in the Bombers’ tendency, not just this season, to win games in which they are the underdog.

But the Dons right now aren’t a side which can afford to take any solace in omens, much less history against an opponent it hasn’t even faced since round one of last year, 407 days ago by the time both sides take to the MCG on Saturday afternoon.

They’ve been particularly sluggish immediately after half-time. Essendon is yet to win a third quarter this season, and has twice in the same term conceded an opposition seven goals, against Adelaide in the opening round, and last Sunday against Melbourne.

The issues have cropped up all over the ground. In defence, where turnovers coming out of the defensive 50 have proved costly indeed. In midfield, Essendon again struggling to win enough ball at the stoppages. And in what was last season a very productive forward set-up, the Dons currently averaging 14 points per game less than 2017.

Spearhead Joe Daniher, who plays his 100^th game against the Hawks, has struggled for confidence this season. A big milestone game is obviously a key to turning not just his but his team’s fortunes around.

THE OPPOSITION

Hawthorn, after a disastrous start to 2017, slowly recovered its standing over the back end of the season, an upward curve which has continued, last week’s win over the Saints giving the Hawks 10 wins and a draw from their past 16 games, as opposed to the Bombers’ 50 per cent record.

The Hawks have been very efficient near goal and, despite the recent loss of Rioli and Puopolo, have maintained their trademark forward pressure and firepower.

Luke Breust has returned to his best, and Jack Gunston’s return to attack has offered more options, with the result that Hawthorn is currently ranked third for scoring, Breust second behind North Melbourne’s Ben Brown in the Coleman Medal.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has regained some strength and experience for the critical clash. No.1 ruckman Tom Bellchambers returns to the 22, along with strong-bodied midfielder David Myers, while Conor McKenna’s return from a three-game suspension will offer some much-needed run out of defence and through midfield.

The trio replace the suspended Matthew Leuenberger, along with small forward Jackson Merrett and young midfielder Matt Guelfi, both of whom have been omitted.

Hawthorn has some handy inclusions, experienced midfielder Liam Shiels back in the mix to help key on-baller Tom Mitchell, while key defender James Sicily returns from suspension, veteran Shaun Burgoyne also having played his first game back from injury last week.

THE STATS

Essendon’s midfield struggle continues to be costly. After six rounds, the Bombers are ranked 15^th for contested possession and are ahead only of St Kilda for clearances, Hawthorn top eight in both categories.

The midfield failing to hold its own either in the hard ball categories or simply with defensive running without the ball is putting the defence under enormous pressure, reflected in the Dons conceding scores from more than 52 per cent of opposition inside 50s, the highest rate in the competition.

Neither are they creating enough scoring opportunities of their own, Essendon averaging only 49 inside 50s per game, ahead only of Brisbane.

Hawthorn, in contrast, is ranked fourth for forward entries, nearly 56 per game, and is second behind only Geelong when it comes to converting them, the Hawks scoring goals from 26 per cent of those opportunities. They are also currently ranked No.1 for scores from intercepts in their forward half.

THE PLAN

In both defeats against Collingwood and Melbourne, Essendon laboured heavily to get the ball out of defence, too often unable to build any momentum when it did finally release, and in even costlier fashion too often coughing up possession and goals with it.

That simply has to be avoided at all costs against the Hawks, whose forward pressure has been back to near their best this season, and whose efficiency on the turnover has been another trademark.

To that end, McKenna’s return to the defensive six, helping relieve some of the pressure to rebound that was heaped by the Demons upon Adam Saad last week.

Tagging is hardly fashionable anymore, but Essendon must at least consider it against possession machine Mitchell, who was back on-song with 45 touches against the Saints, his fourth 40-plus disposal display this season after being brilliantly shut down by North Melbourne’s Ben Jacobs the week before.

While it would be an enormous challenge for a second-gamer, Kobe Mutch’s impressive debut and his own ball-winning ability makes him at least worthy of consideration, while Darcy Parish could perhaps also be given a run-with job on the prolific Hawk.

THE RESULT

Given the perilous nature of Essendon’s position, nothing less than victory will suffice against a bitter rival. And the identity of the opponent, given how crucial this game is, would make a badly-needed win just that little bit sweeter.