THE BACKGROUND

Let’s be blunt. This has been a pretty awful season thus far for a team which was not only a popular fancy to again reach finals, but according to some experts, go well beyond just that.

Seven rounds in, it’s not a pretty picture. Essendon is 15^th on the ladder at 2-5 and already two games outside the eight. The Bombers have now lost five of their past six games, and are yet to win a third quarter this season, Hawthorn last week the latest team to exploit that third-term drop-off with 6.3 to just one behind.

And to add to the woes, spearhead and reigning best and fairest Joe Daniher is out for the next month after being diagnosed with osteitis pubis.

It goes without saying a win against bottom-of-the-ladder and a winless Carlton is a non-negotiable on Saturday if the Dons are to keep the finals flame flickering. But the Bombers know better than anyone that will be easier said than done.

Like all good rivalries, form when the Blues and Bombers clash is often thrown out the window, the prospect of a win over an arch-enemy so often over the years inspiring one or other of these teams to better performances than their ladder position might have dictated.

Even last season, when Essendon was a finalist and Carlton finished 16^th with just six wins, one of those came at the Bombers’ expense, while in round 20 the Dons only just scraped over the line by eight points.

Assuming anything about this game would be a dangerous exercise.

THE BOMBERS

The 23-point loss to Hawthorn last week was another big setback. Yet at the same time it was a performance not without at least some aspects of encouragement.

Essendon did bang on four goals in less than 10 minutes in the first term against the Hawks, moving the ball well for a time and efficient when chances presented themselves, six scores from only nine inside 50 entries in that period.

The Bombers all but split the second on the scoreboard, and rallied well in the last with five of the last seven goals of the match. Ruckman Tom Bellchambers turned in his best performance of the season, shading highly-rated Hawk opponent Ben McEvoy.

But the third term repeated an all-too-familiar pattern, Essendon unable to stem an opposition run of goals, unable to win enough ball in the forward half and often looking hesitant and devoid of options when attempting to come out of the defensive zone.

Coach John Worsfold spoke post-game about his player having “nightmares” about their third quarters. And avoiding a repetition once more this week will be a big priority, regardless of whether Essendon is leading well, not by a lot, or even behind.

THE OPPOSITION

If the 2018 season hasn’t been pleasant for the Bombers, it’s hardly been a barrel of laughs for Carlton, either, the Blues none-too-proud to have now recorded the worst start to a season by the club in its 122 seasons of league football.

Brendon Bolton’s side, like last year, hasn’t often been completely blown off the park, four of its defeats by 26 points or less. At the same time, the Blues haven’t often looked a genuine winning chance, either.

Injuries have been particularly cruel to a team which can least afford them. Critical defender and team leader Sam Docherty was lost pre-season, skipper Marc Murphy hasn’t played since round three, Matthew Kreuzer has missed three games, as has another important backman Caleb Marchbank. And now key forward Levi Casboult is also out injured.

THE TEAMS

The Bombers have made two forced changes to the side that fell to Hawthorn. Joe Daniher’s troubles with a groin injury have been well documented, while Andrew McGrath has unfortunately succumbed to a minor calf strain.

The side will be happy to have crucial speedster Orazio Fantasia back into the line-up after overcoming his own groin troubles, while Shaun McKernan will take his place in the side for the first time this year.

Carlton have made three changes with Charlie Curnow, Darcy Lang and Jed Lamb returning for Levi Casboult, Andrew Phillips and Matthew Kennedy.

THE STATS

The statistical report for either Essendon or Carlton isn’t a document either coach would find pleasant reading right now

Neither the Bombers nor Blues can generate nearly enough scoring opportunities, the two bottom-ranked teams for inside 50s, conceding close to seven more forward entries to their opposition per game.

The Dons have been spared to a small extent by reasonable efficiency with what chances they’ve had, ranked top six for goals per inside 50. But even that is a real problem for Carlton, ranked 17^th for scores per entry.

Essendon is the superior tackling team, the Blues currently ranked 16^th on the differentials. The Bombers have the better contested ball numbers, and Carlton is also finding it difficult to any damage on the outside, the Blues conceding an average extra 25 uncontested possessions per week to their opponent.

THE PLAN

Carlton is conceding around a goal per game more than the next worst defensive side in the competition so far this season.

That is a weakness upon which Essendon must capitalise, a decent template the 10-minute period of the first quarter against Hawthorn during which the Bombers kicked four of their 10 goals.

At least three of those, to Mark Baguley, James Stewart and Patrick Ambrose came from quick, clean breaks out of defence, before the Hawks were able to lift their defensive workrate and trap Essendon too often into slow, predictable ball movement.

Avoiding that again must be a focus, the result not just an Essendon more threatening with ball in hand (even without Daniher near goal) but one which won’t have to defend nearly so many turnovers. And right now, the Dons are having their intercepts scored from (26.2 per cent) more often than any other team, even the Blues.

Fix that defensive leakiness, focus on more swift, more direct movement, demand more forward pressure and neutralise Carlton champion Patrick Cripps and Essendon will be well on the way to a critical third win.

THE RESULT

Carlton has surprised Essendon before when the Dons have gone in favourite. But this time, however, that is largesse which simply cannot be allowed. There will be no excuses for another Bomber loss. There simply can’t be.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.