THE BACKGROUND
How good is a win to open the new season? Bloody good, especially when it’s against a grand finalist, and after having looked pretty unlikely at three-quarter time.
Adelaide seemed to have soaked up Essendon’s best at that stage last Friday night, but in front of one of the noisiest Etihad Stadium crowds the Bombers have played before for several years at least, the home side came right over the top, six goals to one in the final term clinching the deal by 12 points.
Now comes a road trip to Perth, one of the toughest assignments on the football calendar. Generally speaking, that wouldn’t inspire much confidence. Essendon has a poor record in Western Australia, having lost in each of its last six visits, indeed winning just four times in the last 21.
But, significantly, that was at Subiaco. This time, it’s at the new, glittering Optus Stadium. It’s against a Fremantle side which itself is getting used to the ground, having played just one pre-season game there. And the Dockers are attempting to bounce back from a comprehensive 50-point defeat against Port Adelaide.
THE BOMBERS
Essendon coach John Worsfold, having put pen to paper on a two-year contract extension this week, has had an interesting motivational question to ponder as the Dons prepared to go west.
Does he focus primarily on that blistering last-quarter comeback, in which Essendon moved the ball brilliantly, hit the scoreboard hard, and in which the likes of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Josh Green, both of whom had been quiet for three quarters, suddenly came alive?
Or does he, while, paying that due credit, dwell longer on the preceding three quarters, in which the Bombers’ effort was unquestioned, but in which the execution of left much to be desired?
Certainly, one indicator there’s nothing lacking structurally comes with Essendon’s unchanged line-up for this game, a big vote of confidence in key defenders Mitch Brown and Michael Hartley, who stood up well against the Crows, Matt Dea alongside them, and midfielder Kyle Langford, coming off one of, if not the best of his 32 senior games thus far.
THE OPPOSITION
It’s only one round in instead of two this time, but Fremantle’s position seems eerily similar to where the Dockers stood after two beltings to start 2017, the second of those like last week away against Port Adelaide.
They preceded a cry from the hordes for fresh faces and a new, more positive approach, and coach Ross Lyon again seems to have heeded that call at least, with pick No.5 in last year’s draft Adam Cerra and another midfielder in Mitch Crowden called up for their debuts, following Andrew Brayshaw and Bailey Banfield last week.
Freo was beaten in every facet of last week’s game bar the ruck, the Dockers down almost 100 disposals on their opponent, soundly beaten for both contested ball and clearances, out-tackled despite chasing tail for much of the day and conceding more than 60 inside 50s.
There was a sameness about those who did fly the flag, too, skipper Nat Fyfe, veteran ruckman Aaron Sandilands and Lachie Neale.
THE TEAMS
There’s still several longer-term injury concerns, but Essendon’s most pressing problem, Zach Merrett’s concussion, has responded well, and the key on-baller has been declared fit to take on Fremantle, the line-up remaining unchanged.
As mentioned, the Dockers have embraced some major changes, Joel Hamling and valuable mid Stephen Hill back along with the debutants, and Cameron Sutcliffe, Shane Kersten, Darcy Tucker and veteran Danyle Pearce all omitted.
THE STATS
Essendon made a pre-season commitment to improve the defensive aspects of its game, and so far so good.
Adelaide last season won more contested ball than any other team, the Bombers ranked only 12th, but last Friday night it was the Dons winning the contested count 156-142.
Essendon was also well on top in the tackle count, and allowed the Crows 53 inside 50s, not an outstanding result, but less than Adelaide averaged in 2017, and less than the Bombers conceded on a weekly basis.
The Bombers weren’t quite as efficient turning scoring opportunities into goals last week, but still far more so than this week’s opponent, which last season ranked a miserable 17th for that very statistic.
Fremantle last season averaged a lowly 43.3 per cent scoring rate from its inside 50s. Against Port Adelaide, that figure was even worse, a miserable 30 per cent of forward entries converted at least into some sort of score, the result an uncompetitive 9.6 (60) on a perfect football day.
THE PLAN
Fremantle has been a strong stoppage team even in its decline, but one still very dependent upon the Sandilands-Fyfe combination for that advantage. Given that four of its potential midfield rotation have the grand total of two AFL games experience between them, Essendon can dominate the midfield battle should it be able to curb Fyfe and even just one of either Stephen or an out-of-sorts Brad Hill.
The Dockers are poor at scoring on the turnover, which will have the Bomber defence breathing easier. And midfield dominance coupled with quick ball movement could well be the vehicle by which Essendon busts this game open.
Joe Daniher, Cale Hooker and James Stewart are looming already as one of the more intimidating key forward combinations, and its questionable whether Fremantle has the requisite height or strength in defence to combat them all.
THE RESULT
Wins in Perth have been a rare commodity for Essendon in recent times. And the Bombers won’t get many better opportunities to bank one than right now.
