GWS have had to travel back to Sydney following their first win over West Coast and will need to recover quickly. They face what should be a determined Essendon, who will be looking to rebound after the loss to the Tigers. The injury list at the Giants is well documented so the win in Perth was outstanding.

Essendon started with a six-goal opening term against Richmond last week, but kicked just four more for the match. Both the Tigers and Dons wasted opportunities so it will be critical for Essendon to maintain their forward efficiency once inside 50.

Later on in the article I elaborate why the battle between speedy Essendon forwards Josh Green, Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, and attacking Giants defenders Heath Shaw, Nathan Wilson and Zac Williams will be pivotal. It is not all about goals as the small Dons have a critical role in allowing their midfield/defence time to set up. Wilson, Williams and Shaw are devastating runners and great ball users so the dangerous Bombers trio are in for a big game.

Essendon continues to struggle taking the ball inside 50; the Bombers are ranked 16th averaging 46.9 per game, and have lost the inside 50 count in nine of their 10 matches. Interestingly, midfielders Zach Merrett (33rd) and Brendon Goddard (45th) are the only Bombers ranked inside the top 100 in the AFL Player Ratings, while the Giants have nine representatives.

From a ladder perspective Essendon is one win and about 10 per cent out of fourth (Bulldogs) and must rue the lost opportunities in 50/50 games against the Blues and Tigers. GWS can cement their position in the top two.

Statistical analysis

Average possessions: ESS 6^th GWS 10^th

Average clearances: ESS 16^th GWS 1^st

Average inside 50s: ESS 16^th GWS 6^th

Disposal efficiency: ESS 12^th GWS 2^nd

Average contested possessions: ESS 13^th GWS 4^th

Uncontested possessions: ESS 7^th GWS 11^th

Average tackles: ESS 14^th GWS 12^th

Average hit outs: ESS 11^th GWS 2^nd

Average scores: ESS 8^th GWS 5^th

Selection

Essendon unfortunately lost Darcy Parish and James Kelly to injury. It has been a straight swap of Matt Dea for Martin Gleeson. The Dons have preferred to use the experienced Brent Stanton and Ben Howlett to replace Kelly and Parish. Patrick Ambrose did not get to the line so hopefully that leg is ok.

For the Giants, Steve Johnson and Rory Lobb were rested for another week while, as expected, the running machine Tom Scully came in.

Injury

Essendon (minus Kelly, Parish, Ambrose, Brown and Laverde) is close to full strength. GWS is without Lobb, Johnson, Matt Buntine, Ryan Griffen, Stephen Coniglio, Devon Smith, Nick Haynes, Jacob Hopper and Brett Deledio. I don’t care how deep their list is, the ‘outs’ are significant. It provides a great window of opportunity for Essendon.

Match analysis

Why do Essendon (and clubs in general) concede so many inside 50s?

1. Turnovers allow the opposition repeat entries. The use of the ball coming out of defence must improve together with the availability and running patterns of target players up the field. They must provide options.

2. With low inside 50s most of Essendon’s battles are waged in the middle third of the ground. “If you give it back…it’s going to come back’. Essendon is very efficient once entering the 50 but do not spend enough time in there.

3. The midfield vulnerable if ball not kept in the forward 50. Small crumbers are critical to pressure. Hitting leading ‘talls’ also takes a lot of pressure off.

4. Keeping the ball inside 50 allows the midfield to set up with support from the defensive zone. It appears the Bombers don’t give the midfield and backs long enough to organise and set up so they are susceptible to quick transition.

Essendon is either very tall or very small. While there is an expectation players 195-200cm should and can tackle they are not noted for their run down pressure. The Bombers lack a medium (6ft) forward similar to Isaac Heeney, Steve Johnson, Toby Greene, Luke Breust, Daniel Menzel etc that can provide great pressure acts and work in the air and on the ground. Essendon would love Kyle Langford to step into the frame.

5. Essendon is not a dynamically quick team on the outside spread. Most of the Bombers pace is in the front half so you will find the opposition happy to go wide. Richmond did this successfully therefore forcing the midfield to ‘chase out’. GWS are relentless runners in this area.

6. The Dons ‘mids’ are ball hunters. Industry sources suggest they do not defend hard enough. That’s all good against West Coast who are one paced, but the Dons conceded 71 inside 50s against the more mobile options of the Tigers.

7. Essendon’s ‘talls’ are not great chasers/tacklers, so the weight falls very heavily on Green, McDonald-Tipungwuti and Fantasia. If they have an off day defensively, the Dons are in trouble.

8. Clearances: GWS annihilated the WCE 54-31 in the clearances. So the Giants inside game is just as effective as their running. GWS are the number one clearance team with 432 (100 more than Essendon. Big Shane Mumford is a constant threat and like the old-fashioned ruckman taps, he then follows up using his bulking frame to clear a pathway for his small players. That is traditional ruck play. Therefore, if these numbers continue they will be applying even more pressure to Eseendon’s defensive arc.

9. So … can Essendon stop it at the source (GWS half back line) and around the clearances which gives them a very good look at putting a lot of pressure on Phil Davis and the GWS backline? Essendon must get repeat forward 50 entries.

Michael Hurley is averaging seven rebounds from the defensive 50 per game.

The backline

Essendon’s defence will come up against Greene, Patton and Cameron. Taranto, Ward and Kelly also take their turn rotating forward. Essendon’s back six must have felt like they were in the Siege at Bastogne last week. However, they have been remarkable. Hurley, Kelly, Baguley and McGrath have been consistently outstanding. Hartley, Brown, Dea and McKenna have certainly hung in there. The points per inside 50 against is ranked number in the competition at 1.52. They are also number two for points per inside 50 for with 2.02 (2^nd only to the Crows with 2.06).

These are PREMIERSHIP stats at either end of the ground.

Essendon need to address either a) the individual player defence b) how the ‘mids’ defend as a unit c) the zone/press (call it what you like) set up behind the ball.

Moreover, their role in linking together the a) supply and b) defensive support for the backs is Essendon’s Achilles heel and number one area of focus. The Bombers need to be more compact, basically work as an attacking 18, a neutral 18 or a defensive 18 a lot better. Right now too much relies on the small forwards having great tackling days.

Robert Shaw says the Bombers will need to apply pressure in their forward half, so the dangerous Giants half back line can't dictate the play.

Where the battle will be decided

It used to be that if you won in most positions on the ground you won the game. Now with sophisticated defensive set ups, the games are won and lost in particular areas of the ground. This is the game within the game. It is full of talent, pace and skill.

Let’s look as Essendon forwards Josh Green, Orazio Fantasia and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, and attacking Giants defenders Heath Shaw, Nathan Wilson and Zac Williams. If the Giants boys are allowed to dictate off half back, they will distribute the ball superbly to the likes of Kelly, Scully, Whitfield, Ward and Greene. Shaw’s capacity to organise and dictate is well documented but the Essendon boys are dangerous and talented.

The Essendon players must ‘turn them’. This means making them turn and run back to goal as opposed to allowing them to face their own goal. Shaw, Williams and Wilson off half back for the Giants are dynamic runners and excellent ball users. They feed a ‘gut’ running midfield (that work hard all over the ground). Kelly, Ward, Whitfield, Taranto, Greene push very hard. They get Scully back (their best runner), who was rested. It will be decided here.

GWS had an exhaustive four-quarter game across the country and then faced the travel back. They do not get a lot of relief from injury, but Tom Scully is significant. Essendon will miss Kelly and Parish and Gleeson for Dea has raised discussion.

Essendon have to win and it is clearly the best time to get GWS. Both sides have a lot to play for.

The Bombers forward line can trouble any defence in the competition but this will be matched by the extreme running power of the GWS midfield.

GWS may be ‘off’ … but Essendon can’t afford to be.