Essendon champion Matthew Lloyd has tipped the Bombers to make the top four this season.

But Lloyd does not believe his former club, which has not won a final since defeating Melbourne in an elimination final in 2004, has the firepower to win the premiership.

"There's always one team that comes from nowhere, or out of the top four and into the top four, and I think it's going to be the Bombers this year," Lloyd told AFL.com.au.

"They probably would've played in a prelim last season, but obviously with all the dramas they were not able to do that."

Lloyd's is confident that Essendon's list is now in good enough shape to ensure the club can break its finals drought.

"They've had a lot of good draft picks – a lot of players that were added to the club are now around that 50 to 80-game mark," he said.

"I think they will be the team that rises, under Bomber Thompson, and plays a couple of finals this season.

"Tom Bellchambers has gone down, but they say Bomber has got the look in the eye again.

"He wants to coach. He knows it's just for 12 months, but he feels that by getting Paul Chapman they're good enough to challenge for the flag."

Like most pundits, Lloyd expects Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Sydney Swans to be the teams to beat in the race for this year's premiership.

And he thinks Geelong, North Melbourne and Richmond will fight it out with Essendon for fourth place on the ladder.

"I don't think (the Bombers) are good enough to win the flag," he said.

Lloyd is confident that Thompson's move to play Jake Carlisle in attack and Michael Hurley in the backline will give Essendon a boost.

"I think what's Bomber's doing is spot on," he said. "Hurley's a straight-line player, which is more suited to the defence.

"Carlisle has shown, in the times he has gone forward, that he can change a game.

"The big test for him is that when he's doing it week after week (opposition clubs) will plan for him a bit more.

"But I think he's one of the best pack marks in the game, which is what you need as a key forward.

"So I think he's capable of kicking 40-plus goals, which is something the club has seriously lacked in the last few years."

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