Back in the ball game. That’s the bottom line for Essendon after last week’s scrappy but absolutely necessary victory over Fremantle.
But at 4-5, there can be no relaxing now, as the Bombers come up against a competition pacesetter in one of the biggest home-and-away games of the year - the annual Dreamtime at the 'G clash with Richmond.
Three of the last four such clashes have drawn crowds of well over 80,000 to the MCG, so there won’t be many bigger occasions this season or more perfect settings for Essendon to prove that it has the mettle to achieve something substantial.
And against adversity, too. The news hasn’t been good this week, both Devon Smith and now Joe Daniher lost for the rest of the season. It’s not all bad, though, with Shaun McKernan and Jayden Laverde both returning after their own injury issues to try to stamp their claims on a spot in the best 22.
It’s another huge test for the Bombers. Here’s five key questions the Dons will need to answer effectively in order to pass it.
1. Is this our toughest challenge yet?
It’s up there, but while Richmond is a very good team, the Tigers haven’t quite yet reached the levels our round seven conqueror Geelong has this season, nor Collingwood, whom the Bombers pushed so close to the line on Anzac Day.
That’s not necessarily all about Richmond’s form, though, their stocks having taken a brutal hit via injury. And for the Tigers, even that has had some positives, with new blood being introduced into the mix, the likes of Sydney Stack, Liam Baker and Noah Balta all having made a big impression.
Richmond has now won five of its last six games despite being undermanned, two of the wins on the road in Adelaide and Perth, and it appeared to go up another gear again last week against Hawthorn, with 2017 Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin playing easily his best game of the season, critical both in midfield and close to goal. That said, it’s only three weeks since the Western Bulldogs managed a stunning 47-point win over the Tigers, dominating all over the ground as well as on the scoreboard, so the Tigers are far from invincible.
2. How much do we take out of last week’s win over Fremantle?
Let’s be honest, as a spectacle it was an absolute shocker, a real grind, scores hard to come by and mistakes aplenty. But the importance of the four points can’t be overstated.
At 3-6, the Bombers’ season might have been just about done and dusted. Instead, now Essendon is one of five teams with a 4-5 record, only one win outside the top eight.
The other big plus is the manner in which victory was secured. Essendon’s other three wins had come playing the brand of football it wanted to, with plenty of ball on the outside, clean delivery and forward set-ups ticking over nicely. This was the complete opposite, few possessions won in space, forward arcs crowded, and Essendon simply prised the choker hold free long enough to kick the critical goals at the critical moments.
It also won the contested ball against a team which, going into the game, was ranked sixth in that area compared to the Dons’ 11th. From that perspective, it was a valuable lesson.
3. Goals have been hard to come by the last few weeks. How do we get the scoreboard ticking over again?
That three-week spell which netted a 20-goal haul and two of 17 feels like a long time ago now, the tallies since just 10, seven, 10 and eight, and 72 points against Sydney the highest total.
Lack of personnel hasn’t helped, a merry-go-round of key forwards succumbing to injury along with Orazio Fantasia, as well as key midfield supplier Devon Smith. But much of the delivery inside 50 has also been haphazard. But while not reflected on the scoreboard, last week might have been the start of a turnaround.
In the loss to Sydney, Essendon had 54 inside 50 entries but managed only six marks inside the arc. Last week, there were four fewer entries, but 10 marks taken inside 50.
Further improvement will be necessary to break down the Richmond defence. That means key forwards Shaun McKernan, Jake Stringer and perhaps either Aaron Francis or Cale Hooker will need to stay mobile, while that final kick inside the 50 needs to be more precise, with more preparedness also to find shorter leading targets further from goal.
Shaun McKernan will look to again fill the void left by Joe Daniher as he did in 2018. (Photo: AFL Media)
4. Essendon hasn’t beaten Richmond since the 2014 Dreamtime at the 'G game, losing eight in a row. What’s been the problem?
It goes without saying the Tigers are a pretty handy team, finalists in four of those five years, and of course, premiers two years ago. That said, only one of those eight defeats, the 71-point belting in this equivalent game last year, has been comprehensive. In fact, five of those losses to the Tigers have been by less than 20 points. But the themes in most of them have been recurring.
Essendon, even in defeat, has often won the clearance count, the contested ball, and had more inside 50s, but it has usually been Richmond which has been far more efficient at converting its opportunities.
Three Tigers have also consistently been a thorn in Essendon’s side. Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin has twice won the Yiooken Award for best player on the ground, Brandon Ellis has picked up a ton of possessions from a wing or half-back, and Shane Edwards either from a wing or forward. The Bombers have also struggled up forward, not once in the eight losses managing any more than 11 goals.
Dustin Martin has troubled the Bombers in recent meetings. (Photo: AFL Media)
5. Both teams have more than their share of injuries. Which side will they affect more?
Richmond has had some big names go down right throughout this season, from round one when champion key defender Alex Rance suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Skipper Trent Cotchin has been out since round three with a hamstring, ditto Jayden Short with an elbow problem, Coleman medallist Jack Riewoldt has played only three games because of a knee, and impressive youngster Jack Ross and ruckman Toby Nankervis have been the latest casualties.
For Essendon, it’s been both stars and players important to the structure. Devon Smith, Orazio Fantasia and now Joe Daniher are undoubtedly three of the Bombers’ best, and only Fantasia will return at all in 2019.
For the Bombers, there’s been a procession of injuries to key forwards - Shaun McKernan, Mitch Brown and James Stewart. Fortunately, McKernan returns to replace Daniher, while Brown will resume in the VFL.
As impressive as the Tigers’ depth is, it might be Richmond which feels the pinch more, missing its best key forward and defender, a Brownlow Medal-winning on-baller and now its first two choices in the ruck, Nankervis’s replacement Ivan Soldo suspended for this week. That has forced the Tigers to play a debutant ruck in Callum Coleman-Jones, a good opportunity for Tom Bellchambers to shine.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.