The race for the final eight is on in earnest after the Bombers victory over Brisbane last weekend. With other results falling the Bombers’ way, finals’ football is within grasp. In fact it is possible – if everything went perfectly to plan – that Essendon could wind up in fourth place. Alternatively if the wheels fall off, Essendon could plummet to 12th place on the ladder. So how have we arrived at these conclusions?

In taking an educated guess, the broad assumption made is that every team above another side on the ladder (as it currently stands) wins that match in the final six rounds of the season. That would mean Essendon would win its next four matches and lose to Fremantle and Collingwood. In this scenario, the Bombers would wind up the home and away season in eighth place and head to Subiaco Oval to play Fremantle in an Elimination Final.

If Essendon wins all six matches and the other results follow the script, the Bombers would wind up fifth and play Collingwood in an Elimination Final. An even more ideal scenario would see Essendon win all its matches, and Brisbane lose to Collingwood in Melbourne in Round 19. If this miraculous set of results happened to unfold, Essendon would finish fourth and head to AAMI Stadium to play Port Adelaide. Tough but Essendon would have the double chance in its back pocket.

Of course we can’t forget things could just as easily go pear-shaped. If Essendon lost all six matches and the remainder of results went according to ladder positions, the Bombers would wind up 11th. Depending on other results they could drop further. The only bonus in all that being the National Draft and an earlier selection.

Of course the answer to all these prognostications is still well hidden. We have more than a quarter of the home and away season remaining and much can happen. We will keep you posted with the best and worst finishing positions for the Bombers as the season winds down. But first things first, we simply must beat Melbourne to remain in the finals’ race and that is all that matters right now.