The build-up

As predicted, it was a nervous afternoon for Essendon against a much improved and resilient Fremantle. In the end, it was a good effort because key players in Fantasia, Hurley and Hooker were missing. There were no more injuries, players in the VFL had a hit out in the VFL finals and the weekend off allowed the ‘Essendon Three’ to continue their rehab and push for selection.

Hooker did not come up and I believe this will have significant impact. But Essendon get the benefit of the bye. My gut feel tells me that none of them would have played last week. The benefits of the bye is that it does allow ALL teams to recover, rest and adjust training to suit the team and individuals.

The negative is that it does take away hard earned ladder position where teams can play other sides that have injuries and limp into the finals. One can’t deny the fact that last year’s finals series was exciting. Essendon can’t win without a fit Fantasia Hooker and Hurley. To get two out of three back is a bonus.

The Swans were involved in NEAFL finals and chose to run key ruckman Sam Naismith in the NEAFL Preliminary Final. Interestingly the NEAFL Grand Final will be on following the Essendon final at 7.30pm (just a bit of useless information).

Sydney would benefit from the bye as well even though they do not have significant injuries. Hannebery will come back 100 per cent from a hip injury and an ankle injury to = ruckman/forward Sinclair will benefit from the break.

Sydney’s issue is to balance the team with their talls. Reid, Franklin, Sinclair, Naismith. Hannebery (hip) and Papley (knee) missed the Swans' round 23 romp over Carlton, while Naismith (hip) hasn't played since his side's round 19 loss to Hawthorn at the MCG. Both Hannebery and Papley got through training this week, while Naismith played 80 minutes in the NEAFL on Saturday.

So both sides are in really good shape courtesy of this bye.

Six week form line

Sydney

RD 18 def Saints by 42 points

RD 19 lost to Hawks by six points

RD 20 def Cats by 46 points

RD 21 def Dockets by 104 points

RD 22 def Crows by three points 

RD 23 def Carlton by 81 points

Essendon

RD 18 def Kangaroos by 27 points

RD 19 lost to Dogs by 30 points

RD 20 def Blues by eight points

RD 21 lost to Crows by 43 points

RD 22 def Suns by 33 points

RD 23 def Dockers by 15 points 

On exposed form over the past six weeks, Sydney has the superior form line but I will raise this ... Given they had momentum and form (rested Hannebery and Papley) the bye is of greater benefit to Essendon than Sydney.

Do the Swans need the break after generating wonderful momentum after a slow start? Maybe they need a mental break. It has been an exhaustive mental challenge. However, Sydney being so experienced (15 out of last 17 finals campaigns) will not be too fussed but it may play a part in the opening minutes of the game where Essendon are generally really good.

Orazio Fantasia is back to full fitness and will line-up for the Bombers.

Training over the break

Both clubs would have recovered first. This will allow them to have one hard session in the week off. Individual programs would also be distributed based on workload and age. James Kelly knows how to prepare himself for a finals campaign, but for Andrew McGrath this is his first taste.

So in the first few days there will have been a lot of individual monitoring. Both clubs played in respective second tier comps. There would be one tough session for the whole group and for Essendon this would have been Friday, followed by the weekend off. Hurley, Fantasia and Hooker would not get time off but would have followed a diligent daily program.

Early this week they may have focused on specific group work, stoppage work or moments in the game, for example - defensive transition. The whole group will have a good tough session once this week before travelling to Sydney.

Watch for Sam Reid

Sam Reid will start forward but if Sydney are under pressure or it’s the last five minutes of the quarter, he will sit inside 50m defensively and shut the game down for the Swans. He has been so effective in the role that it will provide a ‘what if ‘scenario for the Essendon box.

The Bombers loose man could go 2 v 1 to Franklin to ensure he doesn’t kick a goal towards the end of quarter. At times they may not allow the loose man and decide to play a seven man forward line and man him up. The issue with this is that it does open up the forward 50 for the Swans and on a short ground, you would have to consider the opportunity cost of such a tactic.

The third option is to move the Essendon loose man up the ground and position him 20-30 in front of Reid. Essendon could then play the ball through this player in the hope it would drag Reid outside 50m and away from Daniher.

Covering Hooker's absence

Against Fremantle, it was clear Joe Daniher played deeper out of the square as a leading full forward. This is usually reserved for Hooker as the deep option. It took away Daniher’s running pattern up and around the 50m arc. Daniher prefers to play like Franklin using that left foot arc to go long at goal. His running capacity is also great. That also allows Stewart to play that creative opportunist role as James is not a key position player but a smart mover into space.

The focus will be on Daniher exclusively as the key target as Stewart and Begley are not key position types. It would’ve been to have the movement patterns of Daniher back again. Their prospective opponents are Grundy, Melican and Rampe. They are 193, 192 and 188cm respectively compared to 200, 198 and 197cm. This is significant but only if a couple of things happen - targets are isolated (very difficult against Swans defence) and kicking execution is pot on. Slow ball movement will see the Swans win easily as they will get numbers back and transition the ball quickly to Franklin.

To aid Daniher, Essendon would have looked at including McKernan and using him in identical fashion to Hooker’s role. He gives a big marking target and significant ruck relief (allowing Daniher to stay forward). In considering this with Daniher in the ruck and Bellchambers on the bench resting, it leaves the two key forwards as Stewart and Begley.

Therefore, on the selected team, could Hurley be a wildcard forward? And may we see Bellchambers a little more forward? Essendon has lost the height advantage. They are going to go mobile and back in their pace.

He has played forward before ... could the Dons swing Michael Hurley into attack?

Swans last loss at the SCG

In Round 19 the Hawks defeated the Swans by a goal from Roughead basically on the siren. In Round 14 against Essendon, Franklin was well held by Michael Hartley. Yes, Michael was resolute in his performance but Franklin kicked 0.6 and Sydney did kick 11.20.

Against the Hawks they kicked 9.12 with Franklin kicking one goal . There were extenuating circumstances for the Swans if you read deeply. Jake Lloyd (hip tightness) and Gary Rohan (back spasms) were late withdrawals before the game. Lloyd was ruled out when the Swans lodged their final team 90 minutes before the match, having failed to come up after a six-day break. Rohan was ruled out about 30 minutes before the opening bounce. Sam Naismith (right knee) and Captain Josh Kennedy (left hamstring) spent extended periods off the ground, while Callum Sinclair (ankle) came to the bench midway through the final quarter.

The window was certainly open for the Hawks and they took full advantage through the dominance of Burgoyne and Roughead. In the loss to Hawthorn (despite the circumstances) and the narrow win over Essendon in Round 14 Franklin kicked a combined 1.7. Both Essendon and Hawthorn played very well, but without Franklin on both occasions, the Swans lost and won with the last kick of the day. They are resilient tough and will keep coming. You have to beat them. 

Selection

The Swans have regained McVeigh in the past month who gives them great balance and organisation behind the ball. Kelly provides the same for Essendon. Sydney have turned to the likes of Hayward, Melican, Newman, Florent to be part of their comeback from the 0-6 start.They regain the important Dan Hannebery and the choice of big men saw Tippett left out in favour of Naismith. The Swans are strong, settled and match hardened.

As discussed the bye has worked well for Essendon with Hurley and Fantasia now available. Fantasia’s pace is critical and it will take pressure off McDonald-Tipungwuti who has become a real opposition focus without Fantasia and Green.

Targets and Mobility

There are key targets at both ends with Franklin, Reid and even Sinclair for the Swans while Essendon will counter with Begley, Daniher, Stewart and Bellchambers.

At their best Fantasia, Walla and Green were a lethal combination mainly because they took pressure of each other. Walla has been targeted, Fantasia has to come up as Green is done for the season.

So lets call the ‘targets’ even despite the fact that they have the ultimate predator in Franklin.

Sydney has the edge in the ‘hard match up’ mobility. Heeney, Rohan ,Hewett, Hayward and Towers are really awkward match ups. They have power, good size and are mobile.

Therefore, it’s a different make up for both sides although Essendon can throw Goddard, Watson and Heppell forward. While the focus will be on the tall forwards, this remains a very interesting part of the contest. This is where Essendon are hoping that Langford/Laverde and Redman can develop. Advantage Sydney, for now.

Backline v Backline

Essendon has the better third tall in Ambrose over Melican. Grundy is a great reader of the play and intercept mark like Hurley and Rampe plays tall despite being only 188cm. Kelly and McVeigh cancel each other out while young guns in Mills and McGrath are brilliant.

McGrath has been moved a little more in the midfield. After destroying Betts I reckon Essendon look safer with him on Papley. McKenna is an exciting dasher. Sydney will go after him like they did with Johannisen of Bulldogs. Smith will lock down on Walla and they will try to release Mills to intercept.

For this final, given the pressure, I like McGrath back for his composure. Zac Jones is tough and a dasher. He has the edge on McKenna who is still a developing footballer. Baguley and Smith are tough and will fight out every issue, generally on most dangerous small. Gleeson is more than handy to play on one of Sydney’s mobiles. He can play tall or small and will be required to play that role. Can Essendon afford to run a defensive option on McVeigh?

Honours even.

Andrew McGrath has impressed in defence but has also spent time in the midfield.

Last time

"We were in a lot of trouble with 4:30 to go and 19 points down.”

John Longmire

People naturally focus on the end. BJ’s kick and Gleeson in the goal square with Rohan. Consider this: The story of the opening quarter was Essendon’s turnovers inside their defensive 50, which cost them 14 of the 17 points they conceded for the term. I would suggest that this is the critical theme for this weekend’s game.

The kicking off half back and forward of centre decides this game. If Essendon turn the ball over in this area, they will open themselves up to Sydney’s powerful running in transition. This must not be a theme that starts early.

Sydney won possession by 30, free kicks were even, Sydney won clearances by six, inside 50s were even (52 each). The Swans won contested possession by 14 and tackles by nine. After what had been a mostly dour but fiercely contested clash, the Bombers rode a stirring seven-goal onslaught either side of three quarter time to a seemingly safe 85-66 lead 23 minutes into the fourth quarter. Sydney could not match them.

Opposition analysis

Sydney like the game to be played in ‘chaos’ as they pressure and punish errors better than anyone.

Controlling the ball hurts them, they don’t like giving up uncontested possession as Hawthorn showed . Essendon has the ability to do that, but can not afford to be indirect.

When the two sides met earlier this season, the Bombers handballed and ran through the Swans from the back half and crucially remained composed. McKenna, McGrath and Kelly were terrific that day and will be key figures again. 

Surprisingly Sydney are not a great clearance team, they rank 11^th, so they shouldn't be feared and despite Essendon’s poor record in this area a break-even is possible.

However, the Swans are brilliant at forward 50 scores from stoppages and must be curtailed. As we have discussed about, the Bombers must have a plan for when Sam Reid rolls behind the footy. Because Sydney’s numbers and handball in close is so good, they rely heavily on the runner just off the side of the pack for the release. That is why McVeigh and Zak Jones cannot be allowed to set up just off the pack. 

This is really a very technical game and a superb contrast in styles and systems. It’s something for the viewers to watch very closely

The stats

Average Possessions ESS 3^RD SYD 13^TH

Average Clearances ESS 18^TH SYD 11^TH

Average Inside 50 ESS 12^TH SYD 9^TH

Disposal Efficiency ESS 3^RD SYD SYD 16^TH

Average Contested Possessions ESS 14^TH SYD 6^TH

Uncontested Possession ESS 3^RD SYD 15^TH

Average Tackles ESS 15^th SYD 10^TH

Average Scores ESS 4^TH SYD 5^TH

Marks Inside 50 ESS 7^TH SYD 8^TH

Contested Marks Ess 5^th SYD 6^th

Percentage ESS 106 SYD 126

The game is played on the shortest ground in AFL but wider (137m) than every other ground other than MCG. Therefore, in simplistic terms, get the ball in deep and do not turn the ball over around the halfback/defensive wing area or you will be destroyed on turnover.

Keep an eye out for how Sydney leave the left hand side of the ground open to Franklin to run onto his left foot. The Swans use the space and width.

Sydney have an advantage in contested areas (contested Ball, tackles and clearances), which is their trademark. Essendon can get them in possession, uncontested possession, ball use and efficiency.

It really is a game of contrasting styles. 

Essendon’s pace and ball movement resulted in three straight goals either side of ¾ time when the sides last met but as is the Sydney trademark, they never gave up. 

What an enthralling contest we are set for. 

'It will be won in the midfield'

Oh dear the old commentary chestnut. Please turn all radios and TV’s off when you hear that. And hear it you will. Kennedy v Watson, Heppell v Parker, Hannebery v Goddard, Merrett v Jack Parish/Zaharakis/McGrath v Heeney/Lloyd/Hewitt. These are just examples. These contests are going to be very even just on those basic match ups. 

But the backs v forwards competition is going to be very even too.  Essendon must break even around clearances and that must be their number one target. “BEAT SYDNEY AT THE SOURCE”. Break even here.

However, we must look at the ground and the dimensions. If a team keeps kicking the ball to the area around centre half back, you will be beaten because teams set up so well to transition the ball at SCG. 

The Swans are masters at it and must therefore start favourite. So head-to-head battles all over the field are significant but it is about controlling and playing well in areas of the ground and where NOT TO kick the ball. If you are rebounded on without pressure at SCG … go home. 

Despite Franklin being in the specific area, Essendon must make Sydney ‘kick early’. Meaning the ball lands around the area between centre and centre half back for Essendon.

The Dons rebound is dynamic but it’s where that rebound starts that is critical. Sydney’s forward pressure will be immense. Essendon’s must be great.

Counter wise Essendon have to run and transfer. Spread and switch. Then kick over centre half back and into the 30m zone. Lead from centre half forward. Hit up the target, feed off the handball and then go in long. Both teams have the targets.

It is not as complex as it may sound. Earn your money special comments people. It is not always about the midfield.

Adam Treloar's (Collingwood) analysis of the Swans midfield 

“You have to play Josh Kennedy from behind because he is so strong. If you give him your back, he can push you under. If you play him side-to-side he can push you away. You have to be right up him and chopping his arms. You can't give him too much distance because if you let him have room he gets a clean break. The Swans midfield has three All Australians and is super-organised. They never argue out there about who is the go-to player. Look for Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker to win the clearance and handball backwards from the stoppage and come around again using their outside runners”

The Finals template 

Having done this little exercise for the past 23 weeks here is the winning template for finals success, 

Summary

As a coach and a player, I was always the most sceptical and worried early in the week. As the momentum builds and you train and go to your meetings the greater the confidence grows. As I write this on 4/9/2017 at 5.28 pm, I do not believe that Essendon can win this game. Without Hurley, Fantasia and Hooker I am confident they can’t. If they take their places, anything is possible.

Two of them will take their place. Hooker’s loss places considerable pressure on Begley and Stewart to stand up in their first final. It is a big call.

So let us firstly see how they can influence the game. Obviously, its important Kennedy and Franklin have reasonable games at best. I am concerned about the Heeney and Rohan match ups. Essendon should gain great confidence in ‘losing’ the last game at SCG. People will say ‘let’s look at the reasons we lost that game’. With respect, that’s BS. Look at that phase of brilliant football that saw the Dons score seven unanswered goals either side of three quarter time at the SCG against the Sydney Swans. Therein lies the key.

Joe Daniher has booted 62 goals this season and taken several spectacular marks.

Essendon is not a one-man team. However, the one I did not want out is Hooker. The combination could have stretched Sydney. Sydney’s focus now swings to Daniher. They will double-team him. I have articulated the reasons about sharing the load and allowing other players to play their role. Essendon may have to be a little more creative in their forward line structure. This swings my late week thinking back to a Sydney victory. We shall see how it works out.

Finals: Just another game 

Some say let us keep it normal as possible. Is it? Alternatively, is it something that this team has worked so hard to overcome those insurmountable odds? Is it just another game to Watson and Kelly? Yeah just another game to BJ.

It’s September. It is not just another game. Ask those on clubs on holidays. It’s probably sensational in Bali this time of year. Plenty of snow at Buller on that downhill run.

On the other hand, get up to Sydney and face the toughest and most consistent finals performer since 2000.

Embrace. Soak it up. Play your hearts out. Do not concede or accept what is going on. 

Welcome to one of the great experiences. Welcome to finals football, Essendon.