THE BACKGROUND
It’s been a different sort of off-season for Essendon. Different because, perhaps for the first time in years, it’s been played out against a backdrop of expectation more than just hope.
A finalist last year, the Bombers have topped up with three experienced and accomplished recruits in Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad. The list now looks as deep as it’s been arguably for 15 years.
On paper, anyway. The reality in the AFL now is that talent alone is only part of the battle. It’s having it gel effectively and having balance both defensively and offensively which is a greater determinant of success, and Essendon’s big challenge in 2018.
And challengers don’t come a lot tougher first-up than Adelaide, runner-up to Richmond last year, and a team which of late has dispensed with the Dons in ruthless fashion, the Crows winning the last four clashes, both home and away, by a whopping average of 76 points.
THE BOMBERS
Despite a first-up JLT Series thumping at the hands of Richmond then a late comeback win over Geelong, the big positives for Essendon were the performances of midfield pair Zach Merrett and Andrew McGrath, and particularly Smith.
His addition to the midfield group looms as critical, for despite its scoring prowess, Essendon’s defences were too often breached last season, hardly helped by the team finishing in the bottom half for contested ball and fifth-last on the differential rankings for clearances.
The strong suit remains quick ball movement and a potent attack, whose conversion rate went from last in the competition to third last season, and featured two strong targets in Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker, who between them shared over 100 goals.
The backline, led by an All-Australian key defender in Michael Hurley, and now not one but two lightning quick rebounders in Conor McKenna and Saad, is very capable, but needs more time to set up than those midfield deficiencies have sometimes allowed. Fix that, and high hopes are entitled to be held.
THE OPPOSITION
You might not have thought so on grand final day, but Adelaide was one of the harder-nosed sides of last season, finishing third on the differential rankings for contested possession and fourth for clearances.
Its ball movement was slick, but Adelaide relied just as much, if not more, on creating pressure turnovers in their forward half and pouncing on the results, logical when you have targets the calibre of Taylor Walker (absent this week), Tom Lynch (absent this week), Josh Jenkins and Mitch McGovern, along with a ground-level superstar in Eddie Betts.
Adelaide’s midfield is deep, Rory Sloane going to new levels last year, Matt Crouch becoming All-Australian, and his brother Brad (also out this week) and Richard Douglas besides all finishing top 10 in the best and fairest. Now, Bryce Gibbs is also part of an impressive mix.
The Crows’ defence doesn’t get nearly as many plaudits, but has two All-Australians in Daniel Talia and Rory Laird. The loss, however, of Jake Lever to Melbourne, and Brodie Smith for the year with a knee injury, could be unsettling.
THE TEAMS
There’s some considerable outs for either side. Essendon is without Orazio Fantasia, Martin Gleeson, David Myers and Patrick Ambrose, but Stringer, Saad and Smith have all been picked for their Bomber debuts. Michael Hartley and Mitch Brown have been asked to fill the key position holes this week.
But Adelaide has temporary injury concerns, too, Walker, Brad Crouch, Riley Knight and Alex Keath, the latter a potential replacement for Lever, all ruled out.
THE STATS
Essendon’s numbers forward of centre are impressive. The Bombers were only 12th for inside 50 entries last season, but still ranked fourth for most points scored.
Defensively, however, there have been major issues which arguably reflect more on the midfield than the back six. Those lowly rankings for contested ball and clearances frequently heaped pressure upon the defence, Essendon turning the ball over in its back 50 more often than any side bar Brisbane.
Adelaide, meanwhile, has been a scoring powerhouse. The Crows last year were the only team to average more than 100 points per game, their 110 nearly two goals better than any other team. They were also efficient, scoring goals from 28 per cent of their inside 50 entries, again the best in the competition. They can defend, too, ranked fourth for fewest points conceded last year.
THE PLAN
Two of the three highest scores Essendon conceded in 2017 were against Adelaide, and on both occasions, the Crows feasted on more than 60 forward 50 entries. The Bombers simply can’t allow that to happen again if they are to win.
Essentially, Essendon’s capacity to defeat Adelaide will come down to two factors. The most important will be to prevent the Crows’ forward having anything like that amount of opportunity by denying them the ball and territory, and exerting tremendous physical pressure (as did Richmond in the grand final) when Adelaide does have possession.
Negotiate that assignment, and it becomes about hurting the Crows with leg speed out of defence and through the middle of the ground via Saad and McKenna, then capitalising on forward opportunities against an Adelaide backline a little different-looking and perhaps still feeling its way.
THE RESULT
The absentees for either side could cancel each other out a little. The venue is a plus. And Essendon has more to gain from a big statement made to start the season than its opposition. This is a perfect opportunity to do so.
You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work HERE at Footyology.
CLICK HERE to purchase tickets to watch the Bombers take on the Crows in their Friday-night blockbuster.
