THE BACKGROUND

Essendon went into its bye weekend having put together a solid month of form, three wins from four outings the bottom line. Refreshed and recharged, it now has 10 weeks to turn that recent improvement into something more substantial.

It’s another big challenge, and one which couldn’t get off to a tougher start than a road trip to Perth to take on West Coast, the Eagles equal top of the ladder having lost just two of their 12 games.

The Bombers will start outsiders with good reason. They’ve lost their last seven games in Perth against West Coast and Fremantle, and 13 of the last 16. The Eagles are rebounding from a second loss to Sydney and on their home patch.

That said, Essendon’s last two victories have both come interstate, and it has at least some experience of the venue for this clash, the new Optus Stadium, losing only narrowly to the Dockers there in round two. West Coast is still and will be for some time yet without key forward Jack Darling, and now Josh Kennedy as well.

Most importantly, the Dons in recent outings have begun to display more consistently the hallmarks of a game style which can take them somewhere, based around speed, defensive pressure and good stoppage work, all elements which have been exhibited a lot better during the wins against Geelong, GWS and, last start, Brisbane.

Essendon needs at least seven wins from its last 10 games to be a finals chance. This could well prove the toughest to achieve of the lot, but an upset would certainly kick-start a surge towards that target.

THE BOMBERS

It’s taken longer than anyone at The Hangar would like, but the pieces of Essendon’s 2018 jigsaw are starting to come together, the victories over the Cats and Giants against two highly-rated opponents, and a win in Brisbane methodical and in the end convincing.

The Bombers have significantly upped the amount of scoring opportunities generated during that period, and that has come off the back of a stronger midfield presence and a better defensive work ethic, those mids running harder to support the backline.

The ruckwork of Tom Bellchambers has been a big factor around the clearances, as has been the imposing frame of Jake Stringer, really starting to hit his stride after a slow start to the season.

Leadership has also been a big factor, skipper Dyson Heppell particularly impressive. To that end, the week off has been perfectly timed, ensuring Heppell’s availability for Thursday night after suffering concussion against the Lions.

Zach Merrett has also recaptured his best form of late, while veteran David Myers proved a handy inclusion against the Lions around the middle. It all means that even in the absence of the injured David Zaharakis, Essendon can be confident of at least matching West Coast where most games are won or lost.

THE OPPOSITION

West Coast had racked up 10 wins on the trot before last Friday night’s loss to Sydney at the SCG, the Swans also the last victors over the Eagles back in round one at the same venue as Thursday night’s clash.

That is perhaps a good guide for Essendon as it attempts to repeat the dose, the Swans clearly taking an approach which has worked against the Eagles, along with the proof that while tough to beat the home side on its own patch, it’s by no means impossible.

Particularly whilst the Eagles are having to make do without Darling, a key to their improvement this season, and dual Coleman medallist Kennedy. Even with Kennedy in the line-up, West Coast was last week held to just seven goals, easily its lowest score of the season.

The Eagles now face a decision on structure. On one hand, they could continue to focus on a tall set-up, led by the inexperienced Jake Waterman with Nic Naitanui potentially spending more time forward and leaving the ruckwork to Scott Lycett, perhaps even throwing high-flying defender Jeremy McGovern forward.

Or they could leave the on-ball and defensive divisions alone and pin their hopes on a smaller set-up with Waterman, inclusion Fraser McInnes and several smaller types in Mark LeCras, Liam Ryan and Willie Rioli.

THE TEAMS

Heppell has been cleared to play alongside fellow midfielder Devon Smith, with no changes to the side that defeated the Lions.

West Coast has made three changes to its line-up with Kennedy joined by omitted pair Dom Sheed and Jarrod Brander. Will Schofield, Mark Hutchings and Fraser McInnes are the inclusions.

THE STATS

The biggest statistical discrepancy between these two teams is when it comes to scoreboard pressure, both exerting and defending it.

West Coast is ranked No.1 in the AFL for points scored at an average 96.7 per game, and in its last five games at home has averaged 112 points. Essendon, in contrast, sits only 13^th for points scored at an average of 79.4.

The Eagles have also been a lot more efficient in converting their scoring opportunities, ranked No.1 in the competition for goals per inside 50, 26.3 per cent of their forward entries resulting in goals. Essendon is ranked only 11^th at 22.2 per cent.

Defensively, the Eagles have conceded the fourth-least points in the AFL, an average of only 74.8 per game. Essendon is 11^th, conceding an average 88.1 points per game.

The third quarter remains the Bombers’ big achilles heel in performance terms, the Dons winning just one third stanza all season and losing 11. West Coast is a quick starter this season, the Eagles having won 10 of 12 first quarters. Not that the Dons have been shabby at the start, either with seven first-quarter wins. It should make for a “hot” first term.

THE PLAN

While Essendon must focus on playing its own game and once again maximising speed in a defensive as well as offensive manner, Sydney’s two wins against West Coast has provided a handy template.

West Coast in 2018 has been a team relying far more on ball movement by foot than hand, understandable given the form of its key targets up forward.

But in each win over the Eagles, the Swans have been able to compromise the quality of that kicking with fierce pressure on the ball-carrier and with a well-organised back six.

In both games, West Coast still had more than 60 forward entries, but not of anything like the quality it has generally enjoyed this season, the Eagles converting those entries into goals at only 21 per cent even in round one when they still managed 13 goals, and at a miserable 11 per cent last week.

Significantly, despite West Coast going into last week’s game ranked fourth for contested ball on the differentials, the Swans won the count comfortably at the SCG, and won it also at the bigger Optus Stadium in round one.

Simply, Essendon must not only win the clinches with strong body work, but also use its run to work deep into defence and crowd the West Coast forward arc, then counter-punch on the rebound. Maintain that discipline for four quarters, and victory is more than attainable.

THE RESULT

While Perth hasn’t been a happy hunting ground, Essendon nonetheless has a 5-4 record over the Eagles since 2011, with four of those victories coming at Etihad Stadium. And West Coast’s new home is virtually the same length and only five metres wider than Docklands. If the Dons forget the surrounds and focus on the process, they’re every chance.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.