THE BACKGROUND
That something fundamental has changed in the DNA of the Essendon of 2018 is obvious from a form line which reads two wins from the first eight games compared to seven from the last nine.
Those victories have come against opposition the calibre of Geelong, Greater Western Sydney, West Coast and North Melbourne. But victories in the past two games against less-heralded rivals in Gold Coast and Fremantle have said plenty also.
The Suns and Dockers haven’t had great seasons, but Essendon in both wins has shown a capacity to push on even when playing below its best, turning potentially perilous situations mid-game into ultimately comfortable victories.
It’s another reason the Bombers, while still up against it in terms of making the final eight, can have plenty of confidence that if they do get to September, they will be competitive. And that’s resilience which will be required again in another critical clash on Friday night against Sydney at Etihad Stadium.
It hasn’t been often the Swans have looked vulnerable over the past 15 years or so, but now is one of those occasions, Sydney having been on the wrong end of the biggest upsets the modern game has seen last week at the hands of Gold Coast.
It was the Swans’ third defeat in their past four games, and while still clinging to a top four spot, they are now also only one more defeat away from falling out of the eight altogether.
Essendon on one hand is getting Sydney at the right time. The “but” is the Swans’ proud reputation of hitting back hard in rare moments of adversity, plus a genuine liking for the venue, at which they have won 15 of their past 17 appearances.
It makes for a mouth-watering Friday night contest, with the stakes for both sides as high as possible.
THE BOMBERS
Things haven’t necessarily gone to plan for Essendon for the past two games, yet still the Dons have been good enough to end up winning by seven and five-goal margins.
After winning only two third quarters all season, the Bombers have now doubled that tally in the last fortnight, both weeks adding nine goals in the second half after having gone to the long break with just four on the board.
The tougher streak which has seen the Dons turn their season around in important areas like clearances and the tackle count has also been matched in a psychological sense, Essendon now able to work out of tight spot rather than resign itself to a bad day at the office.
To say the Bombers received good value from their inclusions against the Dockers last week would be some understatement.
Orazio Fantasia was superb and the difference between the sides with a five-goal haul, while David Zaharakis, in his first game since round 11, made a terrific return, a consistent midfield presence with 25 disposals, and combined with the on-going great form of Devon Smith, Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett, too much for the Dockers.
Greater flexibility and depth in all areas of the ground is also proving handy. Mitch Brown was a very steadying presence and goalkicking force up forward after the injury to Shaun McKernan, while Cale Hooker was able to swing forward to support him with the defence still holding its own.
THE OPPOSITION
Just on a month ago, Sydney took on Richmond in a battle of the top two teams on the ladder and a game that looked for all the world like a grand final preview. Three losses and a narrow and perhaps lucky win over North Melbourne later, the Swans are fighting to stay in the top eight.
The losses to the Tigers and Geelong were disappointing but against quality opposition, but defeat at the hands of the Suns last Saturday, the most un-Swans-like effort for a long time, especially given Gold Coast was without a stack of players and coming off 11 straight losses.
Injuries to key personnel have revealed Sydney not to have quite the depth some imagined. The absence of first Callum Mills then Jarrad McVeigh has weakened the defensive structure significantly, and no Kieren Jack or Dan Hannebery has mean a thin midfield, traditionally a big strength.
In attack, meanwhile, there’s a one-dimensional look and an over-dependence on Lance Franklin, the Swans held to 72 points or less in four of their past five games.
Sydney’s run home is tough, the Swans to take on four top eight teams in a row after this clash in Collingwood, Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn. Defeat again here will make the prospect of missing finals for only a second time in 16 seasons very real indeed.
It’s a big moment for Aaron Francis, finally selected at senior level for the Bombers after some terrific VFL form and set to play just his sixth AFL game and first since round seven last year.
Francis is one of three inclusions for Essendon, the others very handy “ins”, running defender Conor McKenna and Jake Stringer, who had struck a rich vein of form before injuring a calf.
Shaun McKernan’s serious hamstring injury has ended his season prematurely, and Travis Colyer and Ben McNiece have been omitted.
For Sydney, veteran key defender Heath Grundy returns, along with Jordan Dawson, while Harry Marsh and Darcy Cameron have been omitted.
THE STATS
Essendon’s development into one of the best stoppage teams in the competition over the second half of the season has been phenomenal.
At the end of round eight, the Bombers were ranked a dismal 14th on the clearance differentials. They’re now ranked second, winning the count by an average three per game. They’re tackling better, too, the equivalent ranking climbing from ninth to fourth.
Contested possession is another area of improvement, Essendon winning the loose-ball get category by an average six per game, second-best in the competition. And the Dons’ forward line pressure continues to get better, also, over the past four weeks, averaging 28 forward half intercepts per game for a ranking of fourth.
That will be of some comfort against the Swans, who have had the Dons’ number for some time, winning the last eight clashes between the teams in a run stretching back to 2011.
Since 2014, the Bombers have lost the contested possession count by 14 per game against Sydney – the worst differential recorded by any side. And over the same period, Sydney has won the inside 50 count by 11 per game – the best differential recorded by any side.
THE PLAN
Most of Sydney’s recent victories over Essendon have centred around midfield dominance, and last year’s elimination final thrashing was no different, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Jake Lloyd on fire as the Swans’ slammed on 10 goals in a hurry in the second term.
Their 16-9 ascendancy at the centre bounces meant quick delivery forward at the SCG, where marking targets Franklin and Callum Sinclair reaped the rewards, booting seven goals between them.
Curbing that edge must be a Bomber focus and there’s encouragement to be had at the prospect not only given that Sydney this time will be without both Hannebery and Jack, but with the Essendon midfield group led by Heppell, Smith and Merrett all in great touch, Zaharakis back in the mix, Kyle Langford and David Myers having added extra strength and depth, along with Andy McGrath and Darcy Parish.
A strong defensive work ethic can disrupt the Swans’ usually impressive scoring efficiency, which is also an area in which Essendon must improve, 26.38 the wasteful return over the past two games.
THE RESULT
Essendon continues to grow in confidence as it wins game in a variety of circumstances. A chastened Sydney, generally a good starting team, will surely hit the opening of this contest ferociously. Withstand that, however, and the Bombers are a huge chance of creeping within a breath of the top eight.
You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.
