THE BACKGROUND

Redemption. That’s the underlying theme of Sunday’s game between Essendon and Melbourne, both sides not only looking to reverse bad losses, but defeats which have well and truly shaken the faith the football world invested in them pre-season.

On the big Anzac Day stage, the Dons were a huge disappointment. From time-on of the first quarter until the final siren, it was Collingwood which dominated the big MCG occasion in front of 91,440 people, if not convincingly on the scoreboard until after half-time.

The pressure which had been the hallmark of the round four victory over Port Adelaide was sadly absent. There was a seeming unwillingness to work hard enough without ball in hand which allowed the Magpies way too many forward entries under minimal pressure.

And to make an already difficult assignment more challenging still, there were serious injuries, both Josh Begley and Josh Green out of action by early in the second term, Begley, sadly, now out for the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

The challenges don’t end there, of course. Now comes the task of backing up for a second game just four days later, and against an opponent also stinging from the embarrassment of a big defeat on the big occasion.

THE BOMBERS

Inconsistency, both of results and of intensity, continues to plague Essendon. A 2-3 win-loss record is well below what most expected after five rounds, with the manner of those three defeats more concerning than the actual margins.

While there’s been plenty of focus on either end of the ground, Essendon currently averaging about two goals per game less than last season and conceding about a goal more, again there’s evidence mounting to suggest the midfield is the root of the problems.

The Bombers actually won the stoppage game comfortably against Collingwood (34-25), but they were clearances won under severe pressure, resulting in hurried, ineffective disposal and a poor return in scoring opportunities (just 41 inside 50s). It was the Pies who emerged with a decisive win on the contested ball front.

While some of the plethora of uncontested ball shared around the defensive on Anzac Day came as a deliberate attempt to slow the game down with two fewer rotations, Essendon needs to get both more offensive run happening on Sunday, and a better work rate from the midfield group defensively, Melbourne’s rebounders always looking to drift forward into attack.

THE OPPOSITION

Melbourne would have been happy with the result on Anzac Day, Essendon’s poor performance taking much of the attention away from its own underwhelming display against Richmond the previous evening.

Like Essendon, the Demons are 2-3, but their past two losses have been by a combined 113 points, and have raised serious doubts about their maturity, given their continued propensity to “tune out” for costly periods, seven goals conceded in the final term against Richmond, and 11 out of 12 the week before against Hawthorn.

Melbourne will miss the injured Christian Petracca, but regains big man Tom McDonald, an interesting poser for coach Simon Goodwin whether he continues to use key forward Jesse Hogan further afield as in recent weeks, or returns McDonald, used up forward later last season with effect, to the backline to settle a defence which has looked a little skittish.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has picked a second player to debut in the three games, 20-year-old midfielder Kobe Mutch, who turned in another strong performance in the VFL against Collingwood last Saturday.

Patrick Ambrose also makes a welcome return as a third defensive tall, he and the injured Marty Gleeson badly missed so far this season. Matthew Leuenberger also plays his first game of 2018, replacing Tom Bellchambers, who is being spelled along with David Myers and Michael Hartley.

Jayden Laverde and Ben Mcniece round out the inclusions with injured duo Josh Begley and Josh Green out due to injury.

Melbourne has omitted Billy Stretch, Dean Kent is injured, and Petracca is recovering from an unusual injury, having required surgery to a badly infected finger courtesy of his pet dog. Jeff Garlett and Josh Wagner have also been ommitted.

Experienced pair Jordan Lewis and Tom McDonald return, with Bayley Fritsch, Mitch Hannan and debutant Charlie Spargo the other inclusions for the Demons.

THE STATS

Essendon is still having major issues winning enough contested ball, the Bombers currently ranked 17^th, of particular significance this week as its opponent is ranked a clear No.1 in the competition.

Like the Bombers, Melbourne is also having trouble finding the right balance between attack and defence, as despite the impressive contested numbers, the Demons are ranked 15^th for uncontested ball.

Conversion is looming as a problem for Melbourne, also, the Demons managing more goals than behinds in only one game this season, and ranked a lowly 13^th for goals per inside 50s despite ranking third in the latter statistic.

Essendon is a more respectable sixth for conversion, but it’s the paucity of those opportunities which is causing headaches, the Bombers ahead of only Brisbane currently for inside 50 entries. The Dons also rank low for forward half turnovers and stoppage wins, pressure close to goal another area in which they clearly must improve dramatically.

THE PLAN

Rhythm is as important to the way teams move the ball as to a fast bowler’s run-up or golfer’s swing, and Essendon has so far struggled to find a consistency of rhythm in 2018.

Coach John Worsfold spoke after the Fremantle loss about the Dons attempting to play too quickly, leaving forwards out of position. On Anzac Day, it was slow movement which was an issue, Essendon too often left working the ball around the defensive half waiting for gaps which never opened further afield.

That would again be a dangerous gambit against a side not only looking for a better spread after being sucked into the stoppage too often against the Tigers, but also an opponent which even in its underwhelming season thus far, has managed to force turnovers close to goal.

That makes quick, clean ball movement out of defence a priority on Sunday. But a higher one will be simply getting hands on the ball more often and winning first possession out of the middle, a real challenge for Leuenberger up against the highly-rated Max Gawn in the ruck.

THE RESULT

Expect this game to be physically willing, as two chastened sides look to regain some critical credibility. And redemption for Anzac embarrassments awaits the team which not only wins the clinches, but can effectively turn that advantage into serious scoreboard pressure.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.