It goes without saying that despite the fact we’re only three rounds into a new season, Essendon’s Friday night clash with Melbourne at the MCG is already a bona fide 'crunch game'.

Two defeats to start 2019 weren’t what were expected, but there’s still time for momentum lost to be recovered. After all, Collingwood last year lost its first two games and came within a kick of a premiership.

But the prognosis on teams who lose their first three doesn’t make for great reading. In fact, in the past 11 seasons, of 36 teams who have been 0-3 after three games, just one, Sydney two years ago, managed to make the top eight.

Essendon is desperate for a win. So too are the Demons, of whom big things were expected but who also remain winless, and left Geelong last Saturday with heads bowed after an 80-point defeat.

It’s early April, but the stakes are high indeed. What will determine the outcome? Here are five key questions hovering over an even bigger-than-usual Friday night clash.

1. Why has Essendon chosen to go with two ruckmen this week?

For several reasons. The Bombers have struggled in both the ruck and up forward over the first two games. Tom Bellchambers has also handled the vast bulk of the ruckwork with limited support from Shaun McKernan. As a more genuine ruck, Zac Clarke, making his Essendon debut, can shoulder a lot more of the work, and has also proved a handy goalkicker resting forward with both Fremantle and his WAFL club Subiaco.

Melbourne’s Max Gawn is the competition’s pre-eminent ruckman, but the Demons’ two opponents thus far in Port Adelaide and Geelong have had some success wearing him down with a twin-pronged attack, Port’s Scott Lycett and Paddy Ryder particularly effective. That may force the Demons to use Gawn’s ‘chop outs’ - key forwards Tom McDonald and Sam Weideman - more in that role than they’d prefer to.

2. The Bombers have averaged just 52 points and seven goals per game. How do they start hitting the scoreboard harder?

Only two of Essendon’s 14 goals in two games have been scored by genuine key position forwards, and its total of 14 marks inside 50 is the lowest tally in the competition, 11 fewer than its two opponents have managed.

The new 6-6-6 rule at centre bounces has also proved an Achilles heel - the Dons’ 14 centre clearances again the lowest figure in the AFL, and Melbourne’s 33 ominously ranked No.1. That imbalance simply has to be corrected in order to win, and McKernan, Clarke, Bellchambers and Jake Stringer have to start clunking some grabs.

The pressure at ground level has also been insufficient. The turnovers the Dons have forced haven’t been capitalised upon, with scores from those intercepts running at just eight per cent - again the worst figure in the competition. In essence, there needs to be more supply inside 50, better quality supply and more efficient use and conversion of the chances created.

3. How important is contested possession this week?

Critical. It is the area in which Essendon was most soundly thrashed in round one against Greater Western Sydney as the home side racked up 41 more contested ball wins.

That differential was recovered even in defeat against St Kilda, winning the contested count against by 13. And it’s an area this week’s opponent will also have drilled down upon.

Melbourne was the undisputed king of contested possessions in 2018, winning on average 18 more contested balls than its opponents, easily the No.1 ranked team. But the Demons have been a shadow of themselves in that regard so far in 2019, losing the count in both their defeats and thrashed in the hard ball gets by Geelong last week.

Essendon last season had three players – Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and David Myers – who each averaged at least 10 contested ball wins per game. After two games, only Heppell is batting anywhere near the same average. The latter pair’s capacity to improve that statistic could prove crucial to the outcome of this game.

4. How will the backline stand up against a team which is strong offensively?

Melbourne was the No.1 ranked team in the AFL last season for points scored, Essendon ranked only 11^th defensively. But there was much improvement in that area over the back half of the season, as the Dons’ midfield worked harder to provide defensive cover. And it was a notable area of improvement last week, too, Michael Hurley and Aaron Francis two of Essendon’s better players.

If this were last year, the absence of Cale Hooker might loom more critically. As valuable as he is, however, if there’s a time to be taking on the Demons without him, it’s now. Melbourne has had little from its key forwards McDonald and Weideman thus far, and its medium-sized goalkickers are also running cold at the moment, the Demons in total having scored only two more points than the Dons.

The connection between Melbourne’s midfield and forward set-up has broken down - a whopping 72 inside 50s last week returning a miserable six goals. That should give the Essendon backs not only confidence they can negate, but perhaps exploit that slipshod delivery with some damaging rebound.

5. How big a factor is the MCG?

Essendon trains on a ground which replicates the MCG’s dimensions, but that hasn’t appeared to make much of a difference over the last 12 months. Since the start of 2018, the Dons have won just one of their eight games at the grand final venue - the round nine victory over Geelong which kick-started their return to form. The last three of those defeats, however, were by a combined tally of only 28 points, so it’s not as though this is an entrenched bogey.

Melbourne, in contrast, has won five of its last seven on its home ground, including two finals, but did lose its first appearance there this season against Port Adelaide a fortnight ago. The Demons aren’t an overly quick team in terms of leg speed, while the Bombers have plenty of run to utilise when their ball movement is smooth enough. Theoretically, the width of the MCG should suit them even more than their opposition.

Read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.