One giant hurdle overcome (pardon the pun), eight more to go. That’s how it feels for Essendon at the moment, every week bringing a new and sizeable challenge as the Bombers scramble to stay in the race for the final eight.

It’s an obstacle course of the Bombers’ own making, of course, after a roller-coaster season which began with sequences of losses and wins, and more recently has swung from week to week.

Essendon has, however, nonetheless won three of its past four games, last week’s thrilling comeback win over GWS arguably the best of this season.

The confidence gained from that will be needed, though, with Saturday’s opponent at the MCG, Sydney, having played much better football after a poor start ever since it last played Essendon only eight rounds ago.

There’s more challenges to tackle in terms of personnel, too, with ruckman Tom Bellchambers and key defender Patrick Ambrose out injured.

Can Essendon overcome that and an opponent almost always at least competitive? Here are five key questions which will determine the result.

1. We played Sydney only eight weeks ago. What’s changed since then?

The narrow loss to the Swans at the SCG was in round eight. Since that Friday night, Essendon has won four games and lost two, that period taking in the mid-season bye.

Sydney has an identical record during the same span, winning four and losing two with another week off for the bye. The Essendon win has proved a turning point for the Swans, who have subsequently won over North Melbourne in Hobart, against West Coast, and lost only narrowly to top two teams Collingwood and Geelong.

There are five changes to that round eight Essendon line-up, with Mitch Brown, Dylan Clarke, Marty Gleeson, Jayden Laverde and Shaun McKernan the inclusions, and Patrick Ambrose, Tom Bellchambers, Brayden Ham, David Myers and Devon Smith missing this time.

Jake Stringer’s return this week to complement Brown and McKernan up forward should further increase the potency of a forward set-up which has begun to tick over a little more smoothly since the SCG defeat, the Dons’ scores in the last four games all higher than anything they had recorded in the previous five.

2. How do we make sure this time we end up with a good win, not a narrow loss?

Firstly, by winning the battle for contested ball. Last time the teams met, Sydney was ranked last in the AFL for contested ball, having just conceded 42 more contested possessions to Brisbane. But the Swans turned things around against the Dons, finishing in the black for that statistic, and it proved significant despite Essendon winning the stoppages, midfield mainstays Luke Parker and Josh Kennedy leading the way, along with ruckman Callum Sinclair, with whom the Bombers won’t have to deal with this time.

Forward efficiency is another key. The lack of it proved costly against the Swans in round eight, Essendon’s key forwards getting poor delivery, taking a total of only six marks inside the forward arc and finishing with only 10 goals to Sydney’s 11 despite having 13 more inside-50 entries. Only Orazio Fantasia was able to slip the leash, finishing with four goals, and his mobility and workrate in that game should be an example to his cohorts this time.


Orazio Fantasia starred in the Bombers' last meeting with the Swans. (Photo: AFL Photos)

3. Cale Hooker turned things around last week up forward. Does he stay there?

Never gets old, this question! But that’s only because the All-Australian key defender is so good at also providing a spark up forward when required.

After that barnstorming final term against the Giants, coach John Worsfold will be sorely tempted to start Hooker in attack this week. But Stringer’s return to the line-up alongside McKernan and Brown gives Essendon plenty of marking targets.

Zac Clarke in the ruck and Brown’s capacity to play in defence also offer more flexibility up forward. And the absence of Sydney superstar Lance Franklin might also make Hooker’s defensive presence less non-negotiable, Sam Reid required to fulfil some ruck duties for the Swans, and other tall forwards Tom McCartin and the impressive but still raw Nick Blakey perhaps not requiring a player as valuable as Hooker’s attention.

Marty Gleeson is up and running again, too. That should all leave a lot more room for some positional switches up forward should the scoreboard not be ticking over with the frequency Worsfold would like.

4. How crucial is the midfield battle?

Very. And there’s a different feel about it this time right at the source with both teams missing their No.1 ruckmen, Bellchambers for the Bombers, Sinclair for the Swans.

With either a back-up or pinch-hitter contesting the hit-outs, both Essendon and Sydney will need their ground-level mids to be more adaptable, prepared to win the ball in areas they normally wouldn’t or rove to the opposition ruck.

Last time these teams met, Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell were standouts for the Dons, but Swans tagger George Hewett performed a very effective shutdown job on Dylan Shiel, who finished the evening with only 17 disposals.

The big difference this time could be that Essendon now has an effective shutdown player of its own, Dylan Clarke a very handy stopper since he returned to the team, having in succession put the brakes on Carlton’s Patrick Cripps and Hawthorn’s Jaeger O’Meara, then last week taking GWS pair Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly. Either Parker or Kennedy would appear the logical choice for Clarke’s attentions this week.

5. It’s a game against Sydney. So we should expect some drama, shouldn’t we?

Of course. It’s been routine against the Swans going back over 20 years now, since an early season draw at the SCG in 1996. Just a few months later, Tony Lockett’s point after the siren at the same ground denied Essendon a grand final berth in heart-breaking circumstances. The Bombers lost by a point to the same opponent at the same venue the following year, too.

Since then, another 11 of 31 Essendon-Sydney clashes have been decided by 10 points or less, with the scoreline of those near-dozen thrillers 5-6 in favour of the Swans. Not only have there been scores of tight finishes, but at least half-a-dozen Dons-Swans games even in this century alone have come down to virtually the last kick of the game.

There’s been Steve Alessio getting Essendon over the line in 2001, Ricky Mott missing for Sydney in 2002, Adam Goodes missing a shot for the Swans in 2011, Essendon’s Courtenay Dempsey marking but playing on as the siren rang the following year, Gary Rohan breaking Essendon hearts two years ago and David Myers falling short after the siren back in round eight as Swans defender Dane Rampe infamously climbed a goalpost. Who knows what might happen this time?

You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.