THE BACKGROUND

Essendon’s flickering hopes of a finals appearance were finally extinguished last week after a gallant performance against ladder leader Richmond, the Bombers in the end falling just eight points short of the all-conquering Tigers.

In a sense, the final game of the 2018 season on Friday night against Port Adelaide thus becomes an anti-climax, the Dons knowing there will be no next week regardless of the result.

It doesn’t, however, render the game against the Power meaningless, far from it. Certainly not for Port Adelaide, which can still reach finals with a win in the admittedly unlikely event that Geelong subsequently loses at home to Gold Coast on Saturday.

Neither, though, is it meaningless for Essendon. The Bombers can match last year’s tally of 12 wins with victory here, weakening a little more the already questionable theory that 2018 has by any definition been a failure.

Essendon can continue its improved capacity to rebound from reversals, not having dropped successive games since rounds seven and eight. It can continue to build on an impressive record on the road this season, the ledger now 4-1 after an initial defeat in Perth.

And it can go into the 2019 pre-season with genuine confidence about being a serious contender for higher honours next year, a win over Port making it six victories for the season against teams currently higher on the ladder.

Port Adelaide, meanwhile, regardless of whether or not it ends up being part of finals action, simply has to find something after its disastrous fade-out from contention this season, and a meek surrender to Collingwood at the MCG last Saturday, when the Power conceded seven goals in the final term with everything to play for.

After round 16, Port was a game clear in fourth spot on the ladder having won seven of its past eight games. Since that moment, the Power have dropped five out of six. There is going to be some seriously unhappy people inside and outside Alberton if that becomes six from seven.

THE BOMBERS

It’s been a challenging week for Essendon. First, there was coping with the knowledge there will be no finals in 2018. Then, the emotion surrounding the decision not to offer Brendon Goddard a contract for next season. Finally, a premature end to ruckman Tom Bellchambers’ best season after shoulder surgery.

That this will be BJ’s final game in red and black at least offers some obvious motivation for one last big effort to finish off the season.

Despite arriving at the club just as it was about to be engulfed by the greatest crisis it has faced, Goddard simply put his head down and offered the leadership and consistent effort which has become his trademark.

Winning the best and fairest in his first season, he has subsequently never finished lower than fifth in a Crichton Medal count. He leaves a sizeable legacy, and there will be plenty of determination to ensure he is allowed to finish his Essendon stint in appropriate style.

The resilience which has emerged in this side over the last two-thirds of the season has been on display even in the two recent defeats to Hawthorn and Richmond, on both occasions the Bombers clawing back significant final-quarter deficits to end up within touching distance of victory.

A similar effort this week, and indeed one more victory, would be the sort of performance which does Essendon’s vastly-improved performances of the last three months at least some justice, if not resulting in a September berth.

THE OPPOSITION

Port Adelaide’s demise over the final third of the season has been spectacular and to an extent, self-inflicted.

The Power have lost five of their past six games, three by nine points or less, and two of those games they led by the best part of two goals with only a handful of minutes remaining. Those defeats will be the cause of much soul-searching over summer should the Power not receive the miracle they’re after this weekend.

While Port’s defence has largely held up again this season, its potency has declined dramatically. Last year, the Power were ranked second for points scored. Currently, they’re 13^th, and the loss of key forward Charlie Dixon in round 21 might have proved the final nail in the coffin.

At their best, the Power play a good brand of fast, attacking football, but too often this season that has been delivered in fits and starts only, their hesitancy in going forward punished ruthlessly again last week by Collingwood.

Neither can the gamble on a posse of experienced players from other clubs be seen to have succeeded. Steven Motlop has shown something in the back half of the season, but fellow recruits Tom Rockliff and Jack Watts have by and large failed to have the impact they needed to if Port was going to go a step further this season.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has made two changes for the final game. Bellchambers is out after having shoulder surgery and Matt Dea has been omitted. The pair have been replaced by Jayden Laverde, making his first senior appearance since round 11, and ruckman Matthew Leuenberger, in for only his second game of 2018.

Port Adelaide has made three changes. Rockliff is injured, and Riley Bonner and Aidyn Johnson have been omitted. They have been replaced by Sam Powell-Pepper, Jake Neade and debutant Billy Frampton.

THE STATS

Essendon’s hard game remained sound even in defeat last week against Richmond, the Bombers winning the contested ball and clearance counts, and the Tigers’ score of 12.9 (81) their third-lowest of the season, even in victory.

The Bombers remain third in the differential rankings for both clearances and tackles, and are fourth on the disposal differentials.

The improved defensive mechanisms which have been a trademark since the turnaround in form post-round eight are reflected on the ladder. At that stage of the season, Essendon had conceded more points than all but two teams, a ranking which is now at least mid-table.

Nor has fitness and the capacity to run out games been an issue. The Bombers have outscored opponents by a total of 99 points in final quarters this season, for a ranking of fourth.

And while the absence of Joe Daniher through injury has been less than ideal, the gap has been adequately filled via a variety of sources. Essendon has averaged more than eight individual goalkickers per game this season, the second-most of any side. Nine players currently are averaging at least one goal per game.

THE PLAN

Stop Port Adelaide at the source and there’s a fair chance you stop the Power altogether. That’s the challenge for ruckman Leuenberger, playing his first senior game since round six and up against former Bomber Paddy Ryder, who has been struggling with a hip injury.

Even a competitive performance from Leuenberger gives Essendon a good chance of coming out on top in the battle of the stoppages, where the Dons have a far superior record to that of the home side.

Port’s hesitant ball movement is another area on which the Bombers can capitalise. Collingwood gave a good insight last week into the sort of pressure which, when applied to the Power’s ball carriers, forces turnovers in dangerous parts of the ground.

Conversely, the Dons need to focus on finding the right balance of attack and defence. When half-backs Adam Saad and Conor McKenna are freed up to run and carry, Essendon looks a far more potent combination. That will be achieved if the midfield group works hard enough into defence in support.

THE RESULT

A season which has ended in far brighter fashion than it began can be capped off in style and an opponent’s finals dream thwarted at the same time if the Bombers get it right. Essendon had that formula when it beat Port in round four. It is playing better football now than then, so there is no reason it can’t pull off the double.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.