With regular contributor Rohan Connolly away, I will be doing my best to fill his rather large shoes for the preview this week.
THE BACKGROUND
There is no doubt that Essendon’s start to the season has been disappointing and there is plenty on the line against an extremely strong opponent this week.
But with a theme of youthful enthusiasm and the club’s undeniable recent record against the league’s “stronger” teams, there is a reason to feel optimistic about the side’s clash with Geelong this week.
Saturday’s match at the MCG will be the third annual Country Game as the clubs honour the contribution of regional Australians to both football and the wider community.
Last year’s renewal of the game was an exciting one and saw the Bombers account for the Cats by 17 points in impressive fashion after bursting out of the blocks with a six-goals-to-one opening term.
Joe Daniher starred on that occasion with five goals to take home the Tom Wills Award for best on
The Dons, unfortunately, won’t enter this year’s edition with the same momentum after suffering six losses from their last seven games, and the Cats have their tails up sitting third on the ladder and coming in off the back of convincing wins over finals hopes GWS and Collingwood.
THE BOMBERS
Victories over both South Australian sides offer the side an example to follow, but Essendon is yet to reach its best this year.
After entering the season with lofty expectations it has certainly been an underwhelming start to 2018, but the only way is up from here.
The side’s frustrating loss to traditional rival Carlton was another big blow to the team’s finals chances and has seen a more aggressive approach from the club this week.
CEO Xavier Campbell has stressed that the season is still alive, while assistant coach Mark Neeld has departed The Hangar and senior coach John Worsfold has come out firing in the press.
The team has seen more moves on the selection table too, displaying a strong commitment to both player development and accountability.
Essendon may take some more confidence into this clash than people expect after defeating Geelong in their last two meetings and will clearly be keen to give its members and fans reasons to throw their support behind the club.
THE OPPOSITION
Geelong took some time to build momentum this year, but have begun to gather it in spades in the last two weeks.
They dominantly dismantled a depleted GWS side in round seven before strangling the in-form Magpies last week, keeping them to five goals including just one in the first half.
While they will still be without some important players including Nakia Cockatoo, Cam Guthrie, Lachie Henderson, Dan Menzel, Brandan Parfitt and Scott Selwood, the Cats have demonstrated the depth of their list throughout the season.
THE TEAMS
John Worsfold has made a statement at the selection table with five changes to his side this week.
Two new Bombers will be unleashed, much to the relief of fans, with Dylan Clarke and Jordan Ridley set for their anticipated debuts – a just reward for extremely strong form at VFL level.
Matt Guelfi breaks his way back into the side, while Kyle Langford and Matt Dea have also been recalled for their third senior game of the season.
Michael Hurley has come out with a hamstring strain that will likely keep him out of the side for two weeks, with Kobe Mutch rested, and Darcy Parish and Ben McNiece omitted.
David Myers will miss out after failing to recover from hip soreness after last week’s loss.
Geelong will be thrilled to bring key forward Tom Hawkins back into the line-up after serving his one-week suspension, but exciting tall Esava Ratugolea has been ruled out with
THE STATS
The Bombers have really struggled to generate inside-50s this season, which is having a clear impact as they have lacked their impressive attacking prowess from last year. They sit last in the league for inside-50s with an average of 48.4 and 10th in scores for.
The Cats have had their own, more minor, inside-50 issues as they sit 10th in the category, but their efficiency has been superior. Geelong is sixth for scores for and has been comfortably better than Essendon in defence, conceding 576 points to the Dons’ 771.
Essendon’s third-quarter catastrophes have been well documented and the side is yet to win a ‘premiership quarter’ and will have their work cut out for them against the Cats who are generally strong after the main break.
While the Bombers’ tackling efforts have been maligned in recent weeks, their average of 64 per game matches Geelong’s and there was significant improvement with 91 tackles against the Blues last week.
THE PLAN
Essendon’s ability to curb the influence of Geelong’s star-studded midfield is an obvious and important factor if the team is to get its long-awaited third victory of the season.
While quashing the impact of Patrick Dangerfield, Gary Ablett Jr and Joel Selwood are extremely important, breaking through one of the AFL’s strongest defensive sides will play an equally large role in the result.
The Bombers must, ironically, avoid aimlessly bombing the ball into the forward line at all costs, because the Cats have comfortably dealt with those situations this year through their long list of intercepting defenders.
Ridley could be able to replicate that role for the Dons this week, while the club will be looking to see James Stewart and Jake Stringer help fill the goal-kicking void left by Daniher.
Essendon has been under scrutiny at times this year for its lack of speed and direction driving out of defence, but its last fortnight has indicated it is starting to make ground in that department.
Perhaps it is time for the side to throw away its inhibitions and enter the match with a fierce and exciting brand once again. The team’s speed was too much for the Cats to handle last year and maybe that can be the plan of attack again.
THE RESULT
Geelong is one of the league’s leading premiership contenders, but if the Bombers can get back to their sharp and exciting best then they are certainly in with a shot. Essendon has shown that it is capable of matching the AFL’s best sides and with the inclusion of young blood, there is no reason to hold back this week.
