THE BACKGROUND

We’re not trying to be clever here, but if someone uses the phrase “danger game” right now about Essendon’s clash with Brisbane at the Gabba on Sunday, the temptation is to ask: “For whom?”

It may be a game pitting a finalist from last year against the wooden spooner, but that’s not quite the profile you’d attach to either the Bombers or Lions at the moment.

After two good wins against Geelong and Greater Western Sydney, Essendon last week received a 71-point spanking at the hands of Richmond in the “Dreamtime at the G”, the gap between the Bombers right now and the reigning premier laid starkly bare and a 4-7 win-loss tally proof enough in its own right.

Brisbane, meanwhile, is even worse off at 1-10. But the Lions have been more competitive than most teams with similar scorelines. Indeed, seven of those 10 losses have been by 26 points or less.

Their one win was a 56-point towelling of Hawthorn at home. Their other four Gabba appearances have resulted in four narrow defeats, three against current top eight teams, the Lions level with Melbourne midway through the final term and losing to Gold Coast, Collingwood and Sydney by a combined total of just 30 points.

Having said that, Essendon, while still stuck with a poor record overall on the road, did win interstate only a fortnight ago, and has won its last three games at the Gabba. In fact, the Bombers last defeat at the venue for Sunday’s game came all the way back in 2009.

THE BOMBERS

There’s no escaping the fact last Saturday night’s performance against the Tigers, on the big stage and in front of a crowd of 81,000, was a major reality check.

Having markedly lifted the intensity levels against the Cats and Giants with impressive results, once again it was Essendon on the receiving end, the Tigers’ pressure game simply too good and continually forcing the Dons into hurried and sloppy disposal.

Richmond made those turnovers count, too, 89 of their 114 points from intercepts, far higher than even the Tigers’ usual average and close enough to double the competition average.

The Bombers’ fluency of ball movement was hardly helped by the early loss of David Zaharakis, an obvious linkman between defence and attack, and he’ll be just as sorely missed in this game.

The haphazardness of delivery into the forward line and failure to lock the ball in was another feature of the heavy defeat, 56 inside 50s for just six goals a very poor return.

Not that there weren’t plusses, even from the wreckage. Chief among them was the performance of Jake Stringer, who recorded a career-high 29 disposals, 16 contested possessions and nine clearances against the Tigers.

Ruckman Tom Bellchambers was impressive again with a career-high 20 hit-outs to advantage, and Adam Saad worked tirelessly to generate some forward momentum from half-back.

THE OPPOSITION

Brisbane has been far more buoyant all season than you might expect of a team with just one victory to its name, but given the focus on development under Chris Fagan and defeats which have generally been competitive, perhaps that’s understandable.

It’s a mindset which allowed the Lions last week against North Melbourne to turn in a vastly-improved second half after being smashed in the first, the 55-point half-time gap kept in check despite the Lions being without keys in Hugh McCluggage, Charlie Cameron and Allen Christensen, all injured.

Cameron’s loss for the season with an ankle injury is a huge blow to Brisbane, the small forward the Lions’ leading goalkicker. Mitch Robinson is also out this week, leaving even more responsibility in the lap of the brilliant Dayne Beams, who may have relinquished the captaincy, but has been in rare touch since.

Keeping him as quiet as possible needs to be an Essendon priority, both midfield and particularly when he creeps forward. Beams booted five against the Roos last week, and with Cameron out, will even more likely be a critical source of scoring for the home side.

THE TEAMS

Essendon has lost Zaharakis to a collarbone injury for at least six weeks, youngster Jordan Ridley is out with a knee injury, while key forward James Stewart has been omitted.

The Bombers have seven inclusions in a squad of 26 to be finalised late on Friday, Mitch Brown, Mason Redman, David Myers, Josh Green, Jackson Merrett, Dylan Clarke and Aaron Francis.

Brisbane loses Cameron and Robinson. It could field a debutant in Brandon Starcevich, Jarrod Berry returns from a hamstring injury, and Tom Bell, Josh Walker, Sam Mayes and Jake Barrett have also been included in the Lions’ extended squad.

THE STATS

Playing four quarters has been a major issue for both these sides in 2018. Essendon has still won only one third quarter all season, and last weekend conceded 6.4 while scoring just 1.1. The Lions’ starts have been even worse, however, failing to win a single opening term and last week outscored 5.7 to four behinds.

Scoring for the Bombers remains a big problem. Their 6.7 against Richmond was their lowest score for the year, the Dons now ranked 10^th on the scoring charts, having passed 100 points in just one game to date.

Failure to apply sufficient forward pressure has been a big factor in that, Essendon over the past month winning just 19 per cent of their offensive one-on-ones for a dismal ranking of 17^th. The Dons also rank second-last for points scored from forward half turnovers.

Brisbane doesn’t score heavily, meanwhile, but it has been more efficient of late, over the past four weeks scoring from 48 per cent of inside 50 entries, good to enough to have it ranked third over that period.

THE PLAN

For the amount of football it wins (ranked second-last), Brisbane has been a comparatively effective stoppage team this season.

The Lions rank behind only Melbourne and West Coast for the amount scored from clearances, and fourth in terms of percentage of takeaways converted to scores.

But a strength can also be a weakness, and interestingly, Brisbane is by some margin more dependent upon scores from clearances than any other team, 43per cent of its total score coming from those stoppage wins, while last for percentage of points scored from turnovers.

It means that Essendon, which comfortably won the clearance count against Richmond, can do some serious damage if it can at least break even at the stoppages, and, unlikely to face the same level of pressure as was applied by the Tigers, use the ball better.

The Bombers rank significantly higher than their opponent in both the contested and uncontested possession departments. Neutralise the stoppage and exploit on the outside should be the mantra this week.

THE RESULT

Ladder positions may suggest otherwise, but there’s plenty riding on this game. Another victory, and another on the road, would at least make it three wins from four for Essendon and a genuine belief that last week’s result was a glitch rather than symptomatic of where this team is at.

You can read all Rohan Connolly’s work at Footyology and subscribe to Footyology TV at YouTube.