A tremendous month of football has Essendon on the verge of a finals appearance. But the Bombers will be well aware that there is still some work to be done, and that they can’t afford to let their guard down for a moment.
And that might well be as big a danger as the actual opponent on Sunday, when Essendon takes on Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium.
After a bright start, in which it won three of its first four games, Gold Coast has fallen away to lose the past 13, and the Suns are at the bottom of the ladder, looking set for the wooden spoon.
But the Suns did have a small win of sorts last week when, on the road, managing to keep their losing margin against Carlton to only four goals. And Essendon, again without some key players, will have to be mindful it doesn’t allow its young opponents to get their tails up early.
This should be a game which helps the Bombers consolidate their position inside the top eight. And here are five questions which hold the key to that winning run of four games becoming five.
1. Essendon’s four wins in a row have all been come-from-behind efforts. How about we have a better start and save all the nail-biting?
Sounds like a pretty good idea! It’s been largely slow starts which have got the Bombers into trouble in the first place. Even during the four wins on end, Essendon has scored more than three goals twice in eight first or second quarters, while the opposition’s best quarters in that time have twice been the second term and, against North Melbourne, the opening quarter, conceding six goals.
In fact, since the first win over the Roos on Good Friday, the Bombers have scored better than four goals just once in 24 first or second terms. And overall, for the entire season, the first quarter has been the biggest problem, the Dons winning only seven first terms and losing 10.
A good start is often considered even more important than usual for teams on the road, neutralising any home crowd advantage, and in this particular case, would go a long way to deflating the spirits of the Suns. Not to mention giving the red-and-black army’s heart rates a bit of a spell.
2. How costly are the absences of Dyson Heppell and Conor McKenna?
Of course the skipper’s on-going problem with a foot injury is a concern and his hardness at the contest will be sorely missed. McKenna’s run off half-back has also been pivotal in the Bombers’ good performances of late.
The return of ruckman Zac Clarke from illness, however, should have a twofold benefit. The first, by way of a more competitive ruckman against the Suns’ very capable Jarrod Witts, should make life at least a little easier for the Bombers’ midfield than last week, while also allowing Shaun McKernan to play more of a key forward role.
Essendon should also still have enough outside run to be able to get on top of Gold Coast in that department even without the Irishman, the Suns ranked last in the competition on differentials for uncontested possession.
The Dons will need to cover for the loss of McKenna, who has been in sensational form. (Photo: AFL Photos)
3. Essendon has lost to the bottom side on the ladder five times in the past four seasons. Is that a concern ahead of this game?
Superficially, yes. But that statistic is also a little misleading. The first of those defeats was against Fremantle in 2016. Essendon, you’ll remember, was fielding a weakened line-up, and the Dockers had finished top of the ladder the year before, still a very capable team.
There was a loss in round two last year to the Western Bulldogs, who were bottom only by virtue of a round one belting.
Sydney in round eight this season was another, but the Swans had been finalists last year, and were on the SCG.
That all leaves a home loss to Brisbane late in 2017 and last year’s round eight defeat to Carlton as the only two results among those losses which really qualified as major upsets. And even those had an upside, Essendon winning six of its next eight games to reach finals, and in 2018, 10 of the last 14 after the loss to the Blues.
That said, a loss here, given Gold Coast has now lost 13 straight games, would be a bigger turn-up than any of those other results. That fear should be motivation in itself.
4. Is Gold Coast really as bad as its recent form suggests?
Not really, no. Thirteen straight losses is certainly a pretty deep form trough, but until consecutive 90-point-plus defeats against Richmond and Adelaide in rounds 16-17, Gold Coast had largely remained competitive, even while losing.
Until then, the Suns had lost three games by less than a goal, three more by less than 30 points, and another three by under 50 points, in addition to the three games they win in the first four rounds.
But injuries take an even bigger toll on a young list lacking depth, and the Suns have had a shocking run in that regard. This week, their official injury list had no fewer than 15 names on it, including six ruled out for the rest of the season. And the bad luck shows no signs of abating, Will Brodie, one of their best young prospects, and very good last Saturday against Carlton, now out for the duration of the season with a hamstring injury.
That said, against the Blues the Suns nonetheless were able to haul back a 43-point deficit which looked like blowing out to a lot more, to trail by only 18 at the final change. That will have restored confidence to a degree, and is another reason Essendon must still approach this opponent with caution.
5. Last week was one of Essendon’s best wins on the road for a long time. How have we fared at Metricon Stadium in the past?
If you count the old Brisbane Bears’ days at Carrara, which is, after all, the same venue, the Bombers have won eight out of 10 games at the ground. Since its redevelopment and use as the Suns’ home, the record is 3-2, the Dons having won the past two games there by 44 and 33 points.
In terms of dimensions, Metricon is closer to Marvel Stadium than the MCG, fractionally shorter than our Docklands home, and only a tiny bit wider. Those past two victories there have been similarly late in the season, and conditions this time won’t be oppressive, either, though there is a chance of rain, the expected top 23 degrees.
One interesting factor this time is that Essendon will be playing back-to-back games on the road on consecutive weekends for the first time since 2005. Last year, the Bombers’ round 12 win was followed by a bye before they headed to Perth to play West Coast.
Then, they enjoyed 11 days between games, but this season, even though over two consecutive rounds, there’s at least been a nine-day break between last week’s win in Adelaide and Sunday’s game.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly’s work at his FOOTYOLOGY website.
