Fremantle has lost five of its past six games and last weekend selected a team with eight players with less than ten games experience. They are certainly vulnerable to the type of losses they have had in the past two weeks with back to back 100 point thrashings. For the past five weeks, the Dons have swapped weekly wins for losses going WLWLW.

Essendon will need to take note of one aspect of Fremantle’s performance against Richmond. The Dockers flew out of the blocks with 18 inside 50 entries to Richmond’s six and should have put a decent gap between them. However, once threatened they kicked four goals to 22 goals for the remainder of the game, despite it being their last home match.

They now have to travel and finish their season in Melbourne. The Dons should be mindful that the sooner they exert physical and scoreboard pressure on Fremantle the quicker they will ‘lose interest’. Essendon then has to make its move. The longer the Dockers remain in the game the greater their confidence will grow. If you isolate the individual Fremantle talent there is enough there for concern.

Essendon has come too far!

The finals

You can always ‘dream’ about finals but never ‘think’ about them. It makes perfect sense to me.

When this group came back together, there is nothing wrong at all with ‘expecting to play finals’. If the Bombers get their head around this theme and successfully carry out the plan, they will win the game. You have to play in the ‘now’.

Internally the players and coaches will put themselves in the bubble. Externally media and supporter /social media hype will be a daily event surrounding who plays whom in week one of finals.

There is only one significant ‘F’ this week and that’s the ‘F’ for Fremantle. The rest is superfluous rubbish.

Never worried about results … just about what you have to do to get them.

Essendon’s focus

Everyone from seasoned journalists to Essendon followers on social media have ‘gone with’ the impending scenarios for the week. It has become a game of ‘if this happens and if they beat them by x amount and that team loses to that team and we win by that’.

You wonder why clubs have closed sessions. To keep all that rubbish out. It is a joke. It is great for talk back. It means absolutely zero to Essendon. It started on every radio station Monday morning, filtered into social media and became a rolling maul of “what if’s”.

One of the greatest things you can do in this game (and particularly in Essendon’s case) is to control your own destiny. To wake up on game day knowing that no other team has anything to do with your destiny is a most relaxing feeling. I acknowledge there is a closeness of percentage between Essendon and West Coast. So the focus becomes so narrow. Nothing else in the competition is relevant, therefore focus purely and simply on Essendon v Fremantle. Prepare well, play well and allow the competition to go on around you.

Essendon’s current position does not surprise me. What does surprise me is that we are in fact not a couple of games higher. However, win this game, use the round 23-bye weekend to great advantage (Hurley) and then a new season starts. The past positions become irrelevant. That is how you must face finals.

Firstly, control your own destiny. Take care of Fremantle with ruthless efficiency and focus, with only one focus - the next two hours at Etihad Stadium.

Why the narrow focus?

I will give you nine good reasons. Johnson, Hamling, Hill, Hill, Neale, Ballantyne, Bennell, Mundy and a bloke called Fyfe. Add some very talented youngsters in Crozier, Logue, Ryan, Tucker and Weller and anything less than a week of steely focus will end in disaster.

As I said: ‘do not give these blokes (Fremantle) any excuse to play well…because they will take it’.

injuries

Essendon has the significant issue with Hurley. They’ve taken the right approach for mine – if he’s not 100 per cent he does not play. Then use the bye weekend to his advantage.

The combination of Fantasia and Green being out means the opposition focus moves entirely to McDonald-Tipungwuti. In isolation, Fantasia is a significant loss while the Bombers will look for the greater flexibility of Colyer or Langford to cover Green.

The Fremantle game only allows one concession. That is it allows the coaches to look at their next combination without Green and Fantasia. As a ‘team’, they are very dangerous and that combination will be missed. Individually it allows the selectors to introduce a different set up. Hurley should be in peak condition come round one of the finals.

Fremantle has eight players listed as ‘season’ but get back key midfielder Lachie Neale from a knee injury.

Jobe Watson has been named in the Essendon squad for the match against the Dockers.

Selection

Essendon got a real bonus with the selection of young Begley. He certainly adds a dimension of, not only youth, but also a bit of unpredictability. Green had to be replaced because of injury and the selectors banked on Travis Colyer or Kyle Langford to come in and play the role. They can both play through the midfield too, so that gives the Dons some flexibility. I am expecting McDonald-Tipungwuti to spend 90 per cent inside the forward line to compliment the three talls. It will be interesting to see how Fremantle try to kick a winning score against a strong Essendon defence.

While the Dons made six changes last week they were all ‘specific’ and actually added fresh legs to a travelling team. Watson remains a critical structural and psychological weapon heading into this phase of the season, particularly as contested football and tight contests will be the norm in September.

Fremantle has come off successive 100 point thrashings and while their injury list is deep they still found space Lachie Neale, Shane Kersten, Jonathon Griffin, Tommy Sheridan and Danyle Pearce.

Fyfe, Hill, Hill, Mundy and Neale stand up to any opposition midfield in the competition. It is a serious contest through the midfield. If one of them have a blinder, they will all sponge off that confidence. A strong even performance, consistently applied is crucial to Essendon’s chances.

Statistical analysis

Fremantle has kicked 7,5,12,13,7 and 5 goals in the past six matches for an average of eight goals per game. Essendon will win comfortably if this average is maintained. So real team accountability to the defensive actions and hard work will see the natural attacking game build throughout the game. If Essendon reverse that philosophy and ‘take the game on’ too far they will play into Ross Lyon’s hands.

Average Possessions: ESS 3^RD FR 17^TH

Average Clearances: ESS 18^TH FRE 10^TH

Average Inside 50: ESS 12^TH FREO 16^TH

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 4^th FREO 8^TH

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 14^TH FREO 17^TH

Uncontested Possession: ESS 2^RD FREO 13^TH

Average Tackles: ESS 14^th FREO 15^TH

Average Scores: ESS 4^TH FREO 18^TH

Marks Inside 50: ESS 7^TH FREO 18^TH

Percentage: ESS 106.1 FREO 73

Fremantle was in the eight at the half way mark of the year and even by the most basic of stats they have fallen away remarkably. While they still have names in their team that are excellent footballers, their team stats do not measure up. The only two stats that are reasonably near the standard are; top 10 for Clearances and top eight for disposal efficiency. They are 18^th for goals scored and marks inside 50.

*Note: Given this (and they will be looking for the W), Fremantle will throw Mundy and Fyfe out of the goals square at Essendon and see if they can create something. They can still have Bennell and Ballantyne at their feet. This is much more likely if Lachie Neale is available for the midfield. This will be the game plan. 

*Note (part two): Looking back to the first meeting Bradley Hill’s 38-possession game on the wing must not be allowed to happen at Etihad this time around. 

The template

Tough place to come and win and Dean Solomon’s coaching was much more defensive and significantly tougher to break down. There was only 10 points in it at ¾ time so this amounted to a very good four points gained against an organised team. They did not hand the game to Essendon, so it had to be won legitimately.

While the opposition may be struck down by injury they were well coached on the day and made life difficult. The game was played on their home ground and, given the nature of the contest; this was an outstanding result for ‘the template’. Good Clearance wins, high Inside 50s, low Inside 50s conceded and high marks inside 50 are ideal preparation figures for the upcoming game. Therefore, while the opposition was not at Adelaide’s level it was an excellent comeback. Consistency at this level is very important come Sunday. If Essendon has their building blocks in place, they will win the game.

Will motivation be used to push for finals? If so, how?

I have made it very clear about focus and preparation leading through the week and up to the game. However, these players have been through a hell of a lot and you can be rest assured at some stage (it will not come from the coaches…nor should it) the senior players will remind each other of the journey and the story of the comeback. It certainly will not be before the game as the focus must be 100 per cent Fremantle. At some stage of the game no words need to (or will) be spoken. One player will look at another, who will look to another and nod to his mate. That is all that needs to happen.

Only they know what it was like to have time taken away. It is now their private time. In addition, when that time comes only they understand. Fremantle become an irrelevance. The pre finals comeback will be completed and for the first time in about four years, there are about ten clubs that would so wish to be in Essendon’s shoes.

Well bloody good luck to you all. Hope you enjoy watching.

Essendon by 23 points in a tight, tense and nervous (for supporters only) game. This should not be the last time you see your team play.