A lot of water has gone under the bridge since these two sides last met. Carlton has lost its last six games and Essendon has four games left to push into the top eight. The Blues have used the ‘long year-fatigue’ line in what has quite clearly been a strong development year for them. You have to go back to Round 12-13 for the Blues last wins when they defeated GWS in Melbourne and Gold Coast away. Since then they have had credible performances against Adelaide (-12 points) and Melbourne (-8 points).

Obviously, there is historical significance between these two clubs. That rivalry is littered with great games, great upsets, John Coleman hitting Harry Caspar and being suspended for four weeks and of course the battle of Windy Hill in 1975. The Blues can go a long way to ending their rival’s finals chances with an upset win on Saturday.

Both teams have 16 premierships. Essendon’s last flag was 17 years ago while the Blues last saluted 22 years ago.

But it is all about now and Essendon has to get the four points.

There is a month of footy to go before the finals and the Dons need to consolidate this week mentally, physically and tactically. The Blues will lift and do everything within their power to deny the Dons a finals spot. That is just the way it works. It is as certain as Percy Jones hitching a ride on a tram down Sydney Rd instead of jogging back from training.

Red Flag

There is a big difference in scoring power. Essendon is averaging 98 points a game compared to Carlton's 72. The Bombers have kicked 100 points ten times this season but the Blues are yet to reach triple figures.

Significantly, and more importantly, the Bombers have dropped away defensively in the past two weeks, conceding 35 goals and allowing the opposition to score more than 100 points. The Bombers rank sixth in the league for the most points conceded.

John Worsfold spoke about the need to tighten up defensively during the week and would have pressed home this message on the track and in the meeting room.

Essendon has given up 104 inside 50 entries in the past two weeks, allowing 57 scores. The opposition are scoring 59.28% of the time they enter the Dons back 50. This is a ‘finals’ red flag.

Entries come from two areas - lack of forward pressure and/or a tiring midfield. It can also be fixed - certainly by selection and structural adjustment, but also by making it a mid-week priority.  Judging by the Coach's comments, team defence would have been a focus this week.

The Bombers are at their best when they have that balance of exhilarating attack and hard nosed, organisational defence.

So why are these numbers relevant?

14, 7, 12, 12, 7, 12, 21, 14, 9, 10, 7, 16, 14, 15, 14, 15, 8, 13, 10, 14, 12, 20, 11 and 9.

These are the goals kicked in the first week of the finals throughout 2014, 2015 and 2016. There are two scores of 20 plus and only one other score over 15.

That is an average of 12.29 goals per game for the last three years in week one of the finals.

These games are generally pretty tight.

Essendon has the capacity to be a team that kicks 15 plus, providing it produces the defence they have shown they are capable of.

In the three weeks prior to the Kangaroos and Bulldogs matches, Essendon conceded seven, 12 and 13 goals. This is right in the hitting zone of a 'finals defence'.

The Dons need to get back to these averages in the last month.

Selection 

The Bombers have opted to give James Kelly and Andrew McGrath a rest, while Jayden Laverde misses out.

Patrick Ambrose, Josh Green and Ben Howlett are the inclusions.  So basically two defenders and a forward out, with a defender, a midfielder/forward and a forward crumber coming back in.

The hard at it Ambrose is a key inclusion.  He's shown great promise as a defender. Green is back after a hamstring injury and Howlett has been included after some strong VFL form.

If Laverde can regain his spot, he has a lot to offer. He gives the side something extra in the terms of balance and flexibility through a number of positions. Langford will also be strongly considered over the next few weeks. I am confident that these two players will blossom as a duet over the years to come for Essendon.

The Blues lose some young players to injury as well as Simon White.  Dennis Armfield could get a run-with job in his return to the side.

Patrick Ambrose is back for the Bombers after missing nearly three months with a quad injury.

Injury update

The Blues are without some important players and good experience. Dylan Buckley, Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow, Sam Rowe and Alex Silvagni will miss. They would like to get stylish Irishman Ciaran Byrne back into the team and he kicks the ball really well off half back. Dynamic ruckman Matthew Kreuzer was concussed in the Dangerfield tackle, according to the Carlton medical report, so he will be monitored right up to game time.

Essendon has the odd injury here and there with Mitch Brown and Jackson Merrett unavailable. But they do have the greater and fitter list to pick from.

It doesn't mean a lot though as, remember, the Dogs had six or seven out.

Welcome back to a couple of 'old mates'

In round three it was Carlton 7.15 to Essendon’s 6.6 on a wet miserable Sunday afternoon. What won’t be happening this time is the Curnow to Merrett match up and Rowe on Daniher (due to injury). Cripps will be sadly missed so I would expect Essendon to saturate the midfield with Parish spending more time through there.

Last week at Etihad Stadium the Blues met the 2^nd placed Cats and there was no respite for ‘old mate number one’ Bryce Gibbs. Scott Selwood’s discipline saw Gibbs on the bench for extended periods and he controlled the Carlton midfielder's influence through the game in which Geelong won by nearly 12 goals. Against the Dons the last time Gibbs had 35 (20 contested) three marks, eight clearances, nine tackles and six inside 50’s. Gee, I nearly ran out of A4!

Therefore, with no Cripps and Curnow through the midfield, eliminating Gibbs’ influence will be high on the agenda this week. The Dons have been the subject of discussion about negative taggers. I have made my philosophy clear. ‘Cut the head off the snake'. 

‘Old Mate number two’ is Sam Docherty who was traded to Carlton for pick 33. In the round three game against Essendon, Docherty had 20 possessions across half back and picked up nine uncontested marks as the loose man inside the Blues defensive 50. 

He won the game for Carlton in the dying stages as the Dons repeatedly banged the ball back to him. This is the kind of match up Laverde can take on when he gets back into the side. Docherty is in All Australian form.

I would be happy with the likes of Heppell or Goddard being accountable/going head to head with Gibbs, because I rate the influence of Docherty more than I do Gibbs.

I am not underestimating Murphy - the Carlton Captain - more so I am going on what happened last time and what can be done to ensure history does not repeat.

Statistical Analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 3^RD CARL 18^TH

Average Clearances: ESS 14^TH CARL 17^TH

Average Inside 50: ESS 13^TH CAR 18^TH

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 4^th CARL 15^TH

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 11^TH CARL 13^TH

Uncontested Possession: ESS 3^RD CARL 17^TH

Average Tackles: ESS 15^th CARL 5TH

Average Scores: ESS 4^TH CARL 18^TH

Rebound 50 ESS: 2^st CARL 10^TH

Marks Inside 50: ESS 6^TH CARL 15^TH

Percentage: ESS 107 CARL 79

Points FOR: ESS 1774 CARL 1301

Points AGAINST: 1656 CARL 1646

You can’t hide the facts that the Carlton season stats rank, on average, equivalent to their ladder position and, while their rebuild status has been clearly defined, I’m not sure if second last was part of the strategic plan. On general stats, they are only at AFL standard in tackles. 

Interestingly Essendon has conceded more points against, than Carlton. The Dons can score much more heavily than Carlton and with the multi-dimensional attack I expect a good solid win.

The template

Well this is an interesting set of numbers. Last week the Bombers were down 14 on clearances and conceded 17 marks inside defensive 50 (after 18 v North).

Don’t just point the finger at defensive formation. Those numbers suggest the ball is coming in too easily. The Dons were well down (-13) in contested possessions and -15 down in desired tackles. The template has stood up.

The scribes in press boxes loved the game against the Bulldogs. It was high intensity running, hardly any throw-ins, the ball going end to end. Highly exciting ... unless your team loses by five goals.

Between the two teams last week, they had just over 80 tackles.

When Essendon are on, they push 70 plus tackles alone. So yes, it was one of the games of the season and with ten minutes to go they were right in with a chance.

Attacking wise the Bombers were good and took the game on.

But in contested play they dropped their standards and failed the ‘template test’. However, the Dons are playing very good football so it’s only a minor adjustment required.

But according to the media scribes; ‘it was an outstanding game’. (If you like circle work).

Summary

Carlton will attempt to set up really well behind the ball, that will allow them to release Sam Docherty as the key interceptor and transfer player. A lot will depend on the unknown, particularly how Kreuzer has pulled up. If the Bombers nullify Bryce Gibbs then a huge weight will fall on the shoulders of captain Marc Murphy. Goddard should get the job on Gibbs. 

There is no doubt the Dons are running well and with Joe Daniher in commanding form they will be far too even across the ground for Carlton.

Coach Bolton will not engage Essendon in a run and gun battle. This is not Carlton’s style and the Essendon coaches will be aware that they will have to use the ball through a lot of congestion at times. Carlton will flood numbers back to try to disorganise the Dons fluency and ball movement, then they’ll rely on strong counter attack into Casboult and the impressive Curnow.

One of the highlights of the game would have been the duel between Rising Star contenders Andrew McGrath and Sam Petrevski-Seton. But I reckon the Dons have made the right call on McGrath a month out from finals. 

Essendon needs to meet two targets:

1. Win and stay in the finals hunt.

2. Be defensively stronger ensuring that ‘scores against’ are similar to rounds 15-17. Look for the Dons to move the ball aggressively and unbalance the Blues 'flood’.

Then it will be a very good day for the Dons.

You know the Club is in good shape when...

I had the privilege to speak at the annual Trainers Function on Wednesday night and catch up with so many familiar ‘heartland’ people that I have known for many years. Members of the 2000 premiership team attended along with about 500 people.

John Worsfold, Brendon Goddard and Dyson Heppell were brilliant and displayed their great leadership in speaking passionately about the Club.

It really did feel like 'Essendon'.