So here we sit.

Between them they have won 31 premierships and have been to an amazing 71 Grand Finals, yet these two great clubs and traditional rivals find themselves heading to the MCG in a fight for survival in 2017.

Much has been documented regarding Nathan Buckley’s tenure up to this stage. It has been different for Essendon as Coach John Worsfold is half way through his first ‘live’ year of coaching, but must rue the lost opportunity to be right inside the eight.

Both clubs have had excellent phases of football throughout the year, but find themselves 11^th and 15^th on the ladder.

Essendon has not taken excellent opportunities to actually push into the top six, while inconsistency game by game and quarter by quarter have plagued the Pies. Therefore, the traditional rivals meet at this great ground at the traditional starting time of 2:10pm. How appropriate.

Regardless of ladder positions, this is a big game. Yes, there is historical bragging rights against old foes and this will drag the supporters through the gate. Essendon is two games out of the eight, while the Pies are three games out. Given the nature of this competition, (I picked the Dons to beat the Lions by six goals last week) I am prepared for any eventuality as the run into the finals begins.

There is no margin for error for both clubs.

Injuries

Daniel Wells is the big one for the Pies, while Tyson Goldsack and Darcy Moore were on restricted programs and are listed as sore. With respect to Ben McNeice, Mitch Brown and Patrick Ambrose, that is it on the injury front for the Dons, so they have plenty of options at the selection table.

Selection

As expected, the Pies brought in Ben Reid (probably to go forward in Moore’s place), the experienced Travis Varcoe and regular half back Josh Smith. Apart from Moore’s loss, this has been a good night at the selection table. The Dons left out Kyle Langford for David Myers with the view to adjust the midfield mix and possibly have Myers go with Scott Pendlebury.

Statistical analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 7th COLL 2nd

Average Clearances: ESS 17^TH COLL 6th

Average Inside 50s: ESS 14^TH COLL 4^th

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 6th COLL Eq.6th

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 15^TH COLL 7th

Uncontested Possessions: ESS 5^th COLL 2^nd

Average Tackles: ESS 15^th COLL 10th

Average Scores: ESS 6^TH 13g 7pt COLL 12g 4pts

Rebound 50s: ESS 2^st COLL 18^th

This is an interesting set of numbers showing a clear ‘domination’ by the Pies in many of these basic indicators. Both teams get a heap of the football. On stats, the Pies are a much better clearance team than Essendon. A concern for me is that Essendon’s contested ball has dropped away but uncontested ball and rebounds have increased. Has Essendon just gone away from the ‘meat and three veg’ game that saw it dominate Geelong, West Coast and Port Adelaide? It's important sides don't get ‘carried away’ with this run and gun game and thus leave the back door open.  It will be important to get the balance right against Collingwood because when the Bombers do they are capable of being a top six side.

The Pies still have issues in transition from possessions won to efficiency of scoring from entries. Essendon’s efficiency is still strong in that area. Young forward, Darcy Moore will most likely miss (or play sore), further hindering the Pies forward set up. I expect them to recall Reid and place him up forward with Elliott, Fasolo and Cox.

From the stats, Essendon must get their tackling up to 75 plus against Collingwood to further inhibit their supply. Therefore, in simplistic terms it looks like weight of numbers favour Collingwood around the football but run, precision and efficiency going forward favour the Dons.

The template

If Essendon can get reasonably close to this ‘ideal’ template, they will win the game. While this is in simplistic terms, the game against Port Adelaide represented that ‘perfect game’ from Essendon. It is taking eight key indicators from that game and then tracking them for the remainder of the season to see if there is a pattern.

You can see from the Sydney game that Essendon was soundly beaten in these areas yet lost on the last kick of the day. As I said, venue and conditions do come into this and I do not claim it to be the perfect analysis by any means.

It would appear the Dons have maintained the standards from that game in Inside 50s Against, Clearances, Marks Inside 50 and Tackles. They have lost ground in Inside 50s, contested ball and overall disposals.

However, that is pure stats tracking and probably not as relevant as the desperation and mental toughness required to put these sides away.

Collingwood

The Pies have a midfield that runs very deep and the flexibility to use taggers/run-with players in Crisp and Greenwood. Given they are second in possessions, sixth in clearances and fourth in average inside 50s this represents a significant challenge for Essendon. Throw in a very good ruckman in Grundy and the Pies have no problem in this area.

They copped a hammering in Thursday’s Herald Sun for having ‘too many C and D grade players’. I am suggesting that Crisp, Sidebottom, Pendlebury, Greenwood, Adams, Treloar, Grundy, DeGoey and Wells (if available) are above average midfielders and this is supported by their general ball winning and clearance rate, which is up there with the best in the competition.

Interestingly the Pies focus at training this week was on full ground movement under pressure, which pushed many to exhaustion. They are going to work and run very hard.

So why are they 15^th?

1. The symmetry between ball use and Inside 50 has not functioned and the consistency of their forward six has been lacking. They are kicking it to a ‘different group’ each week , while injuries and recovery time for Fasolo and Elliott have hurt the creative side of their game. Even with young Moore they struggle to have a supportive second or third target and this week without Moore they will most likely team Reid up with Cox.

2. They are 16^th in the AFL for converting forward entries into goals supporting my coordination theory on the Pies.

3. Another damming theory is that the Pies are ranked stone motherless last for conceding marks inside their defensive 50. They concede more than seven per game and against the likes of Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker this spells real trouble.

4. They are fourth last for conceding goals from turnovers. They concede 57.4 points per game or 9g 3p.

5. So in summary points 2, 3 and 4 give a very clear indication of why Collingwood are 15^th.

Robert Shaw says the Bombers pressure through the midfield and across half back will be crucial.

Essendon

The Bombers will be tested by the Pies midfield depth and ability around stoppages. However, maybe the test is far more within, with the Dons mindset. They have no problems mixing it with the best and finding winning positions.

Essendon will significantly test Collingwood with its ball use and marking capacity (efficiency inside forward 50). So the Bombers have the key strengths to attack the Pies in this area.

Essendon’s pressure to cause turnovers either through the midfield and particularly around half back will be critical given the Pies are conceding basically nine goals per game from turnovers. If Collingwood can’t convert entries, the Bombers back six will not do them any favours. As both individuals and as a group this area has stood up and if the Pies are missing Moore, the Dons can take advantage in this area.

If on song the Essendon crumbers can apply enormous tackling and run down pressure and this will accentuate Collingwood’s poor turnover record.

Essendon must be careful that this run and gun exciting breakaway speed does not become the staple diet. It is a strength but must be used in coordination with other phases of the game.

Finally our weekly discussion. It was interesting to hear Woosha during his weekly press conference say he’s open to the idea of adjusting his ‘run with philosophy’ in relation to a question about assigning a player to Pies defender Jeremy Howe. Game style (system) usually stays pretty much the same but game plans week to week are adjusted. This is the sign of a coach prepared keep working on his team balance and improvement.

If Treloar, Pendlebury and particularly Sidebottom are allowed to free range, they may get enough inside 50s that even the Pies dysfunctional forward line can kick a winning score. These are the Pies three genuine A-graders. If they are limited to ‘average to good ‘games, the Pies can’t win.

For example, last week Travis Colyer had a quiet game on the wing.  A run-with option that may been been considered was to send him to Dayne Zorko and turn a negative into a positive. This week similar circumstances may prevail with the burst running Treloar.

My match up with Pendlebury would be head to head with Goddard and Heppell working off him and I would bring Stanton in, as he knows Sidebottom’s game very well. Therefore, one hard tag and two accountable roles can exploit the opposition. I would not be afraid to give Langford more responsibility in an accountable role.

Some clubs have also tried to negate Howe’s intercept marking but while it may be an issue, you have to be prepared to back the talent in our front half to take him on.

Summary

The Pies have the advantage in stats but not precision and ball movement. The Dons are the opposite - maximising entries into a forward line led by Daniher and Hooker with the crumbing support of the smalls. The marks conceded by Collingwood in this area give the Dons big men a great chance.

Both teams will rack up possession and while I feel the Pies midfield depth is good and slightly shades Essendon on paper, their inability to turn entries into a winning score will be a concern.

Look for the Pies to break Essendon open with fast ball movement and aggressive running through the midfield. Matching up the burst running of Treloar is a priority over Pendlebury and Sidebottom in my opinion.

If Essendon..

1. Maintain clearance equilibrium

2. Have over 70+ proactive tackles (forcing Collingwood turnovers)

3. Take 10-15 marks Inside 50

4. Hold Collingwood to under 55 forward entries

They will win the game.

Oh and 5. Play with resilience and be mentally tough.

It's desperation stakes for two proud clubs at the home of football in a traditional timeslot on Saturday. Surely, this game lives up to expectations and we get a great spectacle on Saturday afternoon. Not that a great spectacle is of any concern to both sets of supporters. It’s all about the four points.

Robert Shaw is a former AFL Coach and Essendon Life Member.  He provides independent anlysis for essendonfc.com.au and compiles most of his preview prior to the announcement of the selected sides.