Essendon face the young Lions on the back of last week’s one point loss to Sydney. This game could have catapulted the Dons up the ladder, while the loss would have seen immediate reflection and hopefully consolidation this week.

Way back in round two the Lions pushed the Dons all the way but face a much-improved Essendon line up. Narrow losses against Sydney, GWS and the Tigers just mean the Dons have little room for error and must take care of business with a professional display.

The Lions play well at this venue with their pace and rebound. The loss of Captain Dayne Beams is significant for the Lions who will rely on the work rate of Tom Rockliff and the explosive pace of Dayne Zorko. 

Selection

Essendon welcome back Cale Hooker and Darcy Parish. Shaun McKernan misses out despite having his moments against the Swans. That means Joe Daniher will provide the second ruck option.

It was interesting to have a look at the Bellchambers/McKernan combination and the Essendon coaching staff may have a look at this again. I say this with a view to finding the most efficient ruck/forward system before the finals. Of course the Bombers still need to get there but is the best combination Bellchambers with support from McKernan? Or Bellchambers with support from Daniher and James Stewart?  Matthew Leuenberger is waiting in the wings as well and don’t forget Bellchambers has gone forward with great success in the past (he booted 28 goals in 2013).

Playing a genuine second ruckman allows Daniher to play as a permanent forward, without ruck duties.

Parish pushed Ben Howlett out of the team in a great sign of the depth and pressure for spots. Howlett picked up 16 possessions and laid six tackles against the Swans, while Parish collected 27 disposals in the VFL in his first game back from injury.

Darcy Parish returns to provide another option in the Essendon midfield.

It’s great to see Kyle Langford retain his spot. He spent more time in the midfield against the Swans. He’s tall but agile and adds something different to the Essendon midfield mix.

Dayne Beams is a big loss for the Lions. In the month before getting injured against the Giants he averaged 31 disposals per game including 40 against Adelaide and 36 against the Dockers.

McCluggage v McGrath

First pick, second pick, third pick - who was going to go where?  It was all a hypothetical discussion with Andrew McGrath coming to Essendon.

Hugh McCluggage can play and you will see his class. They will spend time on each other ... of that there is no doubt.

The History

In the early 2000s these two teams waged war and it was the brilliance of the Voss led Lions that stopped Essendon in their tracks in 2001. Much water has passed under the bridge with both clubs ‘starting again’ for entirely different reasons.

It’s obviously a must win for the Dons who find themselves two games and percentage out of sixth spot. It would be fair to say the Bombers are now fighting for seventh or eighth spot. This was an expectation before the year and remains the same.

The Lions are in the early stage of their development. They are a young and athletic team that has very mobile tall forwards. The Hurley v Hipwood duel will be one to watch.

Ruck Battle

Essendon will continue to use Bellchamberes and Daniher against Stefan Martin. The Lions ruckman is an unusually tall ‘ruck rover’ who excels and follows up clearances. He is exceptionally athletic and a natural runner. Bellchambers' strength and ruck craft will worry him, while Martin’s run will test the Essendon big man.

Statistical analysis

Average Possessions: ESS 7^TH BRIS 18^TH

Average Clearances: ESS 17^TH BRIS 7^TH

Average Inside 50: ESS 14^TH BRIS 17^TH

Disposal Efficiency: ESS 8^TH BRIS 16^TH

Average Contested Possessions: ESS 14^TH BRIS 17^TH

Uncontested Possession ESS 5^th BRIS 17^TH

Average Tackles: ESS 16^th BRIS 15^TH

Average Scores: ESS 6^TH 13.9 BRIS 14^TH 12.1

Rebound 50: ESS 1^st BRIS 2^ND 

Simple thumbnail sketch:

Both sides like to rebound off half back but the Bombers are more potent going forward. If the Bombers can at least match the Lions around the clearances, they will be able to kick a winning score.

The Bombers are back on the ground where they decimated West Coast and Port Adelaide. They will run hard off half back and use their tall forwards efficiently inside 50. This will be the key to the game. 

Statistical Comparison - comparing the Port Adelaide win to the Sydney loss

'The Template'

- v PORT +90 disposals - v SYDNEY -30

- v PORT Equal clearances - v SYDNEY -6

- v PORT 36 scoring shots from 51 entries (outstanding) - v SYDNEY -11

- v PORT 12 marks Inside Forward 50 - v SYDNEY 12

- v PORT + 11 contested possession - v SYDNEY -14

- v PORT 70 tackles - v SYDNEY 55

- v PORT 67 Inside 50s - v SYDNEY 52

- v PORT Inside 50 conceded 51 - v SYDNEY 52

Last week I analysed the Port Adelaide stat sheet as the perfect template for Essendon and 'finals standards'. The Bombers were well down in all areas against the Swans, yet only lost by one point (and led by 19 late in the game). This was because of the ground and the Sydney style of contested ball. So this has to be considered. It would have been interesting to break down the stats for the seven goal burst by Essendon either side of three quarter time.

The numbers against the Swans show Essendon can match it with a top team without dominating the key statistical areas. It was a good effort against the in form Swans. We will keep referring to the ‘perfect numbers’ from the Port game the closer we get to the finals.

Summary

Essendon must set their standards and stick to them. They must be focused and mentally switched on. Brisbane will play attacking football and look to take the Bombers on. 

If Essendon are well organised defensively they will apply pressure on the ball movement of the Lions and turn the ball over. From this position they will rebound strongly.

I’m not sure Brisbane has the defensive structure to hold the Dons, especially if Daniher and Cale Hooker are on song.

Everything being equal and Essendon come to really play I expect a six goal victory to the Bombers.

The stakes are far too high to allow for any slip ups.