This week will be a massive round with all the teams in the ‘top 10’ playing each other. Essendon is the team in 10th position and face a tough month. 1 v 5, 2 v 4, 3 v 6, 7 v 10 and 8 v 9. There is a bit of sorting out to be done this week.
This game can project the Bombers into the top eight. Essendon’s roadmap to finals participation will be clearly marked with the next four games against Richmond, GWS, Port Adelaide and Sydney. Wins against Geelong and West Coast were systematic and exciting.
The Tigers have lost by three points, two points and five points after leading by +24 in each game. They have been about 90 seconds combined (three games) from being 8-1. They could not close the deal but overall their form is to be respected. They have been very good in actual game play but efforts to close games out when in winning positions have been much discussed. You get the feeling that could weigh on their mind and if the game were tight, the ‘odd word’ reminding them of that would not be out of line.
There will be a reaction to the past close losses. They may be flat or (as I expect) approach Essendon with a strong resolve.
Tom Bellchambers is back for the Bombers this week.
Selection
The straight swap due to illness was on the cards (Tom Bellchambers for Matthew Leuenberger). Really interested how Bellchambers handles the mobility and second and third efforts of Toby Nankervis. The big Tiger man has been an effective linkman around the ground and will test Bellchambers’ leg speed. Bellchambers’ potential to kick goals, as a genuine forward could be important, but it will depend on the conditions on the night. Josh Caddy strengthens Richmond’s midfield depth with his body strength.
Statistical analysis
Average Possessions: ESS 389 RICH 396
Average Clearances: ESS 34 RICH 36.2
Average Inside 50s: ESS 47.5 RICH 56.1
Disposal Efficiency: ESS 73.1 RICH 70.7
Average Contested Possessions: ESS 140.1 RICH 147.9
Uncontested Possessions: ESS 252.7 RICH 195.2
Average Tackles: ESS 65 RICH 69
Average Hit Outs: ESS 37 RICH 33.6
Average Free Kicks: ESS 18.1 RICH 17.7
Average Scores: ESS 13.10 RICH 12.8
Injury
The Tigers are without half back Reece Conca who started the year off really well. One of Ben Griffiths or Shaun Hampson usually plays but Nankervis has been mighty for the Tigers. He is a genuine force. With Nick Vlaustin out also there are a few holes in the line-up around half back.
Essendon would prefer Patrick Ambrose back sooner rather than later, while the important Leuenberger could not get up from illness.
Zach Merrett is the third leading disposal winner in the AFL this season.
Midfield battle
Brendon Goddard, Darcy Parish, Travis Colyer, Jobe Watson, David Myers, Zach Merrett, David Zaharakis, Andrew McGrath, and some critical pinch-hitting cameos at important times from Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia.
As I have written before, that gives Essendon three layers of midfielders. There is still a way to go, but that’s far deeper than a month ago.
The Tigers will throw Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Shaun Grigg, Caddy, Kane Lambert, Dion Prestia, Brandon Ellis and a bit of Shaun Edwards. On exposed form, the balance slightly favours Essendon.
Richmond is far more likely to allocate a tagger than the Dons are. The Tigers were badly beaten in stoppages/clearances against GWS, which, in the end, proved their downfall when the Sydneysiders stormed home.
Where do the goals come from?
The Tigers have dried up in front of goal. They have kicked 10, 10, 11 and 10. On the other hand, the Dons forward line is functioning smoothly with a spread of goals coming from the small crumbers and the tall options.
In round 6 the Adelaide forward line kicked 21 goals with Taylor Walker, Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins kicking 9.4 between them.
The consistent Joe Daniher will present a real threat and pre-game discussions will centre on a potential match up with Alex Rance. David Astbury is an option. He is much improved but is the number one defender in the league for goals conceded, with 24. However, sending Astbury to Daniher can allow Rance to free himself up in a similar way to Michael Hurley.
Hypothetically, if midfield battles are even Essendon’s inside 50 efficiency will give them the edge. There is a forecast for 30kmh winds but at 18 degrees, it should be a clear night for forwards.
Essendon
The Bombers have beaten West Coast by ten goals (3rd) and Geelong (3rd) by three goals. Theme = settled.
There is also some very good pressure from the VFL side and the forward pressure has been outstanding. They have very good run and pace and have mixed up the midfield. I believe Essendon have come through that tough period and my observations tell me that the returning players have also found their match legs.
Some key points about the last couple of weeks...
- Missing Ambrose but apart from that the team is balanced and settled.
- Mobility in the forward line and the ability of the three talls to rotate between centre half forward, 30 metres out and the goal square.
- Tackling pressure in the front half of the ground has been THE KEY. Without it, the Dons tend to be exposed on turnover. I would have it as number one priority on the whiteboard before the game. Essendon should ‘target’ Bachar Houli as, besides being their designated kicker, he does give the ball up constantly by hand, when pressured.
- Tackling pressure + goals from Fantasia, McDonald-Tipunwuiti and Green.
- McGrath and McKenna off halfback should be daring.
- Essendon do not apply heavy tags. However, there has been subtle changes to ‘opponent allocation and responsibility’. Heppell v Selwood and Colyer v Gaff are prime examples. It will be interesting what work is put into the devastating Dustin Martin.
Michael Hurley could get the job on Jack Riewoldt.
Potential match ups
Interestingly we have the possibility of Hurley v Riewoldt (depending on how far Jack roams) and Daniher v Rance.
These are two outstanding contests that actually may not eventuate due to positioning.
What I mean is that, I believe, Essendon would be delighted if Rance went to Daniher at centre half forward and Joe works him. This takes Rance away from his ‘controlling zone’ close to the goal square.
If Riewoldt plays deep then I would leave Hartley with the job and keep the in-form Hurley at centre half back. Therefore, it may not be as simple as Hurley/Riewoldt and Rance/Daniher.
Summary and tip
The transformation of the Tigers into a side willing to take the game on has seen them improve significantly. While the narrow loses have been devastating in the short term, these are professionals and come Saturday night Essendon will meet a determined outfit.
The Bombers face the Tigers, Port, GWS and Sydney in the next month of games and this is a necessary win. Essendon should be in a ruthless state of mind and can propel themselves into the top eight. However, Essendon has not been a ‘ruthless club’ for a long time, but they are now ideally placed to make a move and a statement. They are fit, in form and settled. It is a great test for the mental toughness of the team and I am anticipating both teams bringing their best mindset to the game.
How do you define ‘mental toughness’? I will leave it to Michael Hurley: “We've had a couple of good wins now and historically we've struggled coming off good wins. We've let our guard down slightly, so hopefully we can back it up and play some good footy," he said.
It is an even competition, a great competition, but no truly great teams.
Time to make your move Essendon.
I am confident the Dons should win by three goals.
