Dons’ veteran James Kelly will play his 300th career game, fittingly against the side where he won three flags with and played 273 games with. I hope one Geelong player and one Essendon player chairs him off after a one point Bombers win. Fair effort James Kelly, very well played.

Ok round eight already …. Where did that go?

It may not be ‘moving day’ at Augusta but if clubs do not get into it they may not make the cut.

After an impressive start and a great ANZAC Day performance, Essendon has staggered with a LLWLL over the past five weeks. Considering everything objectively (format, availability, selection, opposition), Essendon is one game short of going around the ‘front 9’ with a very solid par.

The Cats, after winning the first five, have dropped a couple of bad ones against Collingwood and Gold Coast. WWWLL. In the short term, both clubs will be very desperate to turn this cycle around at a ground they both play very well.

The Cats were ‘outplayed’ for three quarters by the Saints before unloading an 8.4 to 1.3 last quarter. Their best form was the decimation of Hawthorn by 86 points. Against Melbourne in round three they trailed by 24 points deep into the third before, again, a Selwood- Dangerfield surge saw them finish strongly.

Geelong is currently ahead of the Dons on the ladder but there are some familiar patterns between both teams in four-quarter consistency. Can the Dons produce four consistent quarters to again wobble the Cats confidence for the 3^rd week in a row?

Both clubs have been ‘consistently inconsistent’ from quarter to quarter so expect both teams to have brilliant moments. How the respective coaches boxes handle the momentum swings will be something you to keep an eye on.

Injury

Joel Selwood and Lachie Henderson were in doubt, with the Geelong pair suffering injuries on the weekend. Selwood rolled his ankle against Gold Coast on Saturday night and played out the game, but was on crutches on Sunday. Henderson was a late withdrawal last week and again hasn’t got up for the game against the Bombers..

** We await the final team announcement Saturday night, but ‘Selwood out’ assists the Dons significantly.

Patrick Ambrose’s absence is significant, as is Mitch Brown and Jayden Laverde, who are also on the Dons injured list.

Selection

James Stewart gets a go and this could be important. He can ruck and relieve Matthew Leuenberger, which leaves Joe Daniher in the forward line. Stewart can also team up with Daniher allowing the flexibility of a Cale Hooker swap to defence. Therefore, this is a good move.

Jobe Watson and Andrew McGrath are important ‘ins’. The Cats backline will not line up as selected! They have lost Henderson and fired out four running players. They have reacted to successive losses at selection and named first gamer Mark O’Connor. I reckon Geelong’s team on paper gives Essendon a huge window.

Statistical analysis

Round eight now gives us a very clear sample size from which to analyse trends, compare club to club, and club to competition. The basic stats show:

Inside 50: Geelong 11^th Essendon 17th

Disposal efficiency: Geelong 75% Essendon 72.8%

Clearances: Geelong 12^th Essendon 16^th

Centre Clearances: Geelong 9^th Essendon 12th

Goals: Geelong 2^nd  Essendon 12th

Tackles: Geelong average 64 per game, Essendon average 62. Both sides are in the bottom half of the tackling ladder. This confirms to me it’s going to be a very attacking free flowing game that suits both sides’ attacking instincts.

Disposals: Geelong 6^th Essendon 8^th

Contested Possession: Geelong 8^th Essendon 14th

Disposal efficiency: Geelong 6th Essendon 14^th

Marks inside 50: Geelong 6^th Essendon 9^th

Inside 50s conceded: Geelong average 53 Inside 50 conceded, Essendon 59.5 Inside 50 conceded.

It will be a contrast in styles on Saturday night. Geelong is ranked first in the competition for handballs (averaging 197.6 a game). Essendon is a high kicking team, ranking second with an average of 227.4 a game. 

Essendon and Geelong

- The return of the tagger is on many clubs agenda. Obviously, the Cats saw the effectiveness of the Levi Greenwood tag on Joel Selwood, while an opposition Coach finally appreciated Zach Merrett when Ross Lyon sent Connor Blakely to him after half time. Clearly, the past eight weeks have shown the coaches prefer not to tag so on face value expect a hard running attacking game.

Fremantle sent a 'run-with' player to Zach Merrett last week.

In the wings, the Cats use Cameron Guthrie but only as a ‘break glass in emergency’ situation. The Dons also prefer an attacking team defence system and clearly lacked an option for Bradley Hill (40 possessions).

It is also interesting that clubs choose Selwood to tag instead of Patrick Dangerfield. The Bombers analysts will be going over the Collingwood v Geelong tape with a fine-tooth comb. Essendon gave Heath Hocking one crack on Marc Murphy before he was dropped. However, hypothetically, if Essendon could find or develop one tagger, it spreads the load on the attacking midfielders and allows greater flexibility with Watson, Brendon Goddard, Merrett, Dyson Heppell etc. moving through forward line and sharing the physical load.

Maybe a double team scenario with Hocking and Ben Howlett rotating off the bench in bursts on Selwood was considered. I guess it is just an option given Collingwood’s success. Given the way selection turned out, Craig Bird could be an option to come into the ‘22’ and play this role.

- Further to that, doubts have lingered on Selwood’s ankle all week. If he misses then will the Dons turn away from their preferred ‘team defence’ option and apply greater accountability to Dangerfield? Given Selwood and Dangerfield’s capacity to lift Geelong this would have a significant bearing on the result.

- Collingwood was able to limit Geelong’s forward entries to a mediocre 49, while having 60 of its own. Given Essendon’s potential strength at this end of the ground, I feel the game will hinge on whether or not the Dons can limit the explosive Cats attacking game. I would be confident Michael Hurley and co can control Tom Hawkins but if the Bombers concede too many inside 50s it brings into play the Cats medium forwards in Daniel Menzel, Nakia Cockatoo and Steven Motlop. Gold Coast also held the Cats to 48 inside 50’s and had an incredible 71 themselves.

- In summary Geelong’s last two games, have them kicking 15 and 11 goals from 48 and 49 inside 50’s. They have conceded 107 points and 127 points from a combined 130 inside 50’s against. This is the key area where Essendon can hurt the Cats.

- JLT series or no JLT series. Bendigo in February or MCG in September! The trends of this game definitely follow similar 2017 season patterns from both sides;

1. In Bendigo, Essendon burst out of the blocks and led 11.5.71 to Geelong 5.7 .37 (sound familiar?)

2. From the 0.0-12.00 minute mark in the third quarter, a burst led by Selwood and Dangerfield, particularly with centre square dominance saw the Cats add 5.2.32. The momentum completely swung in 12 minutes. This is what the Cats are capable of.

3. Overall, the Cats add 12.5 to 3.5 in the second half … a 10-goal swing on the back of a 3^rd quarter momentum shift.

- Now where have we seen this before? I will put it to you that similar trends/momentum swings have been the strengths/weaknesses of both teams. Compare that to the round seven scoring graph with Essendon and Geelong.

- Momentum shifts will decide this game. Both teams have the capability to kick six goals and on the other hand have six goals against in the shortest of times. The trends so far suggest Essendon racing to a good lead, playing very good football, before a mid-third quarter/last quarter surge from the Cats.

- You can put the ‘decider’ of this game down to how players (leaders) and respective coaches boxes can control the inevitable momentum surge. Whoever controls that (defensively) wins.

A theory

To finish on this overall ‘Momentum Theory’, here is an insight into the forward line efficiency rate once the ball enters the forward 50 arc.

The Cats are 2^nd with 2.15 points per entry and the Dons are 3^rd with 1.95. Great efficiency.

Therefore, if the Dons concede their average of 59 Inside 50s against, Geelong will kick 17.16.118 and IF the Cats concede their average of 53 against, Bombers will kick 15.13.103. (*subject to weather conditions). As I said, highly entertaining, high scoring, not much defence and a close contest.

Tip

Given the Cats edge in disposal efficiency, marks inside 50 and goals scored, the ‘momentum shift factor’ favours a Geelong win. However, I do not like the Cats team on paper and they will need to do some structural moves before the game to get the right match-ups.

In the last two losses, the Cats have had 48 and 49 inside 50s and have been stopped by outstanding defence from Collingwood and Gold Coast. Essendon are not a great stifler of opposition ball movement and inside 50s, but if the Bombers can force turnovers and pressure the Cats handball overuse, they can severely hurt Geelong on the rebound.

Initially I thought the Cats on the evidence supplied; however looking at both teams there is no reason at all not to select an Essendon win. Then we await the news on Selwood. If he is out and Essendon ‘nail’ Dangerfield, the Dons have the ability to win the midfield battle and give their forward line the opportunity to kick a winning score. I expect Essendon to win by 17 points.