So no Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis and Hill. Therefore, this proud club with such a rich rivalry against Essendon are going to lie down?
Hawthorn will roll out 17 players with premiership success and they have a coach in Clarkson that will revel in this sort of talk.
You have been warned.
This is a much-anticipated game for many reasons with significant interest in the return of the Essendon players, a look at Hawthorn without that quartet, and how the new Bombers side gels.
The Essendon coaching panel get a free run unencumbered by distraction and issues beyond their control. Clarkson will keep them honest and I can't wait for the battle in the respective coaches’ boxes.
SELECTION
From the team named in the paper I would expect McKernan to start in the ruck with Ambrose to go back to cover Roughead or Gunston - presuming the Hawks start with three talls early. Langford comes into the forward line with debutant McGrath to the bench. It's a very mobile side and the selectors have picked all their small, quick players. Hawthorn’s team was as expected, and despite the four missing it looks strong on paper.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
I will touch very briefly on this as both sides are very different and samples will not be particularly relevant until Round 6-8.
Much has been discussed regarding Clarkson’s nonchalant attitude to Contested Ball. The Hawks were 11th in 2016 while the Bulldogs won the Contested Ball count in all of their finals. Essendon have proven ‘inside players’ who win their own ball and will provide a constant source for their forwards.
Consistently Hawthorn have been in the top range for Goals, Goal Assists, Time (spent) Inside 50 and Goal Chains from off Half Back.
The skill level and ball movement of the Hawthorn team in transition (from defence to attack) is first class and there to finish it off is a forward line that will include Rioli, Roughead, Gunston, Bruest, Puopolo and Vickery (replacing Hale).
The Hawks were 2nd in Effective Disposals. Add that up and Essendon’s game plan will come down to a number of simple but effective executions.
BEATING HAWTHORN: THREE AREAS OF TOTAL FOCUS
I am angling towards saying that Brad Hill will be missed more than the other three - don't lock me up and throw away the key just yet. The key to Hawthorn's ball movement methodology has been Birchall and Burgoyne. They are superb distributors of the ball, with the key switching targets being Brad Hill and Isaac Smith. The pair provided the skill, speed and outside run. There is no doubt those two are critical to the Hawks ball movement. Now Hill is gone.
Essendon have to take away Smith’s significant influence and maybe Brent Stanton’s fitness, experience and running power could be used to good effect. So my first ‘item of business’ would be Isaac Smith.
Could Brent Stanton line up on Isaac Smith?
I have touched on Birchall and Burgoyne. A major part of Essendon’s focus must be forward pressure. Quite simply if the ball comes out of the Hawthorn defence easily then Essendon will lose.
Yes, the Bombers want Fantasia, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Parish, Zaharakis, Colyer and Green kicking goals at the feet of Daniher and Hooker. However, with pace comes responsibility. They must tackle, particularly run down’s (tackles) from behind.
Essendon’s smalls have a huge job in limiting the time and space the likes of Burgoyne and Birchall have to distribute the ball.
In my opinion it is quite possibly the most important phase of the game.
Critically this buys time for Essendon’s midfielders and defenders in the defensive zone to set up their covering positions. Essendon’s aim must be to ensure the Hawthorn kicks are pressured and preferably high. There is little point practicing structure of zones over a full pre-season if the ball is going to sail out of Essendon’s front half.
Hawthorn could start with a premiership forward line. Rioli, Bruest and Puopolo at ground level. Roughead, Gunston and Vickery as tall targets.
The Hawks are extremely flexible and started with those six forwards they will then throw Vickery in the ruck, Roughead and Rioli on ball and Gunston will go to a wing or as a loose man behind the play.
They used to throw Hodge and Lewis forward so look for them to, at times, go unconventional with the likes of O’Meara, Burgoyne, McEvoy, Shiels and Sicily forward.
At the selection table Essendon’s back half options have the flexibility to cover. McGrath had to play. With McDonald-Tipungwuti moving forward Essendon will need options in defence to cover the Hawks dangerous small forwards. Essendon’s back 6-8 must firstly be great communicators with each other and to their midfielders. They must have the capacity to play tall or small as Hawthorn will definitely swing the changes through there. The back six must remain compact and organised and must not be tactically dragged up the ground and out of position.
Control, Composed and Communicate.
Andrew McGrath is expected to line-up on one of the Hawks small forwards.
ESSENDON MUST:
- When Hawthorn is in trouble, Burgoyne will move forward and into the centre square. Don't fall asleep at this time because this is Clarkson’s big play. Remember, he no longer has Hodge. If this happens, the game may well be on the line. Alternatively, Burgoyne may actually start in the centre square.
- Keep Gibson away from Daniher and Hooker. Hawthorn relies heavily on 3rd man up. How Essendon isolate their front targets (keep space between them) will be very important.
- Limit Hawthorn’s uncontested marks. If they average above 90, they win historically. In the final against the Dogs, they had 70. Clarkson will adjust his game plan but this has been a great consistency of Hawthorn's methodology through their premiership success.
- Our midfielders must face our goal. This means that we are keeping the ball in the forward line and the likes of Merrett, Watson, and Heppell etc. are not constantly turning around and chasing out with the ball going past them or over their heads.
- Ball movement. Eliminate poor decision-making and costly turnovers. Essendon’s methodology going forward must be precise. With Hooker and Daniher, the Bombers have legitimate options. Throw in Watson moving to the goal square then Essendon have multi options. Therefore, execution inside 50 is just the same as putting in golf.
- Last year Essendon lost five games by less than 20 points. This year, albeit the JLT practice series, Essendon lost three more close ones when again controlling the game. I was concerned how easily we gave up big leads. Dangerfield was allowed to roll out of the centre square uninhibited. This is a combination of on-field leadership, opposition player responsibility and a coaches box that needs to pick up early signs of momentum swings. Create great habits by winning the close ones. Let us ‘tough’ some wins out.
- Essendon’s Leadership v Hawthorn Leadership. Both teams have new captains and new elevations to leadership groups. ‘Go after their captain’. Steve Smith stood up. Virat Kholi didn’t. It appears Hawthorn has a leadership vacuum with no Lewis, Hodge and Mitchell. All three are MCG specialists and play the big occasion brilliantly. Test the water, Essendon. ‘Shop early’.
TIP
To me it’s an 80/20 split. 80% focus on Essendon’s methodology and 20% take away from Hawthorn what they so desperately need. Throughout the year, I will objectively tip against Essendon, at times, and give my reasons.
This will not be one of those times!!
‘Same Olds’ by 9 points
